Home » Cheddar Bay Archive » Cheddar Bay 2013 » #CheddarBay Week 8: FSU -3 at Clemson.

#CheddarBay Week 8: FSU -3 at Clemson.


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Winston or Beasley, who you got?

Nice little matchup shaping up Saturday night in South Carolina.  Say what you want about the NCAA but they do a decent job presenting their stats.  I decided to check Clemson and FSU out and it turns they’re pretty even.  (Stats are fun when you’re not ruled by them.)

Clemson (national rankings)

  • #1 3rd down defense (23.7%);
  • #14 Pass Completion Pct. (69.0%);
  • #10 First Down Defense
  • #4 (Least) Passes had intercepted (2)
  • #9 Interceptions (10)
  • #10 Passing Offense (342 YPG)
  • #18 (Least) Passing yards allowed (187 YPG)
  • #4 Red zone defense
  • #10 Scoring defense (16.2)
  • #17 Scoring offense (40.8)
  • #1 Sacks (4.0)
  • #8 Passing Efficiency
  • #1 Tackles for loss (10.2 per game)
  • #13 Total offense (515 YPG)
  • #4 Turnover margin (+1.5)
  • #2 Sacks, Vic Beasley


  • #5 Pass Completion Pct. (70.4%)
  • #2 First Down Defense
  • #1 (Least) Fumbles lost (1)
  • #4 (Least) Passes had intercepted (2)
  • #2 (Least) Passing yards allowed (149 YPG)
  • #6 Yards per completion (16.04)
  • #4 Red zone offense
  • #17 Rush offense (228 YPG)
  • #3 Scoring defense (12.0)
  • #3 Scoring offense (53.6)
  • #2 Passing Efficiency
  • #4 Total offense (549 YPG)
  • #1 (Least) turnovers lost (3)
  • #2 Passing Efficiency, Jameis Winston

Skanky Fish picks via @ClevTA

@ClevTA's Skanky Fish Picks.

@ClevTA’s Skanky Fish Picks.

17-7-2 year to date, 2-1-1 last week.  As Kanick pointed out last night, La Laff would’ve fit the profile and won outright as a 3 pt dog.


1. UCONN +13.5 v Cincy (Line opened Cincy -16, now -13.5. 69% of public on CIN) Pick: UCONN
2. CMU -15.5 v N Ill (Line opened N Ill -17, now -15.5. 66% of public on N Ill) Pick: CMU


1. NYJ +4 v NE (Line opened -6, now -4. 76% of public on NE) Pick: NYJ
2. TENN +4 v SF (Line opened SF -6, now -4. 71% of public on SF) Pick: TENN

Seems about time to take this seriously…

Thank you Brandon Marshall.



Big ups to Brandon Marshall for using his platform to ‘raise awareness’ on a subject whose awareness actually needs raising:  Mental Health.  In case you missed it, Marshall (diagnosed with Borderline Personality Disorder) was fined $10,500 by the NFL for wearing green shoes last Thursday night.

Marshall had said before last Thursday’s game he was wearing the shoes to attract attention to Mental Health Awareness Week.  Marshall has been treated for a personality disorder in the past.

Marshall posted the league letter informing him of the fine on Twitter and wrote:  “Football is my platform not my purpose.  This fine is nothing compared to the conversation started & awareness raised.”

Marshall said he had planned to match any fine with a donation to his foundation, which supports mental health awareness.  He said he also plans to auction off the shoes and donate the proceeds to charity.

NFL: New York Giants at Chicago Bears


We’ve long viewed the NFL/BreastCancer/Komen month to be way over the top and thought that there are other charities/causes equally if not more deserving of the NFL’s help except that then it would actually be driven by the altruism it talks to rather than the more probable cynical outreach for larger audience share in that other gender demographic.

Here’s Brandon Marshall’s Foundation’s website.

In other news …
It’s Acto’s world and we’re just living in it.

Nice work by HitTheHorns last week on his Lobsterfest.

And your Cheddar commissioner apologizes for not engaging more in the thread and twitter lately, just a little busy and — I have to share this — I have got a some kind of allergic reaction (confirmed, Poison Sumac) thing going where my face looks like Ali’s after the Holmes fight.  Damnedest thing, remarkably hideous, Elephant Man stuff.

Ok Cheddars let’s get back on track this week.


  1. bupalos says:

    Late games: CMFB +9.5: Brandon Weeden is the type that requires negative motivation to get out of bed. He was OK enough after being benched for a no-name, but then went back to drafting after no-name was officially crossed off the list for the season. But this past week saw pretty much all his enablers stop enabling and start hating. That will work ok-ish for 1 or 2 more weeks. THIS IS NOT THE ESSAY. YOU CANNOT ESSAY BRANDON WEEDEN.

    Ratbirds plus or minus whatever against The Devil.

    ***Broncos -6 v. Colts:

    What is a colt but a baby Bronco? It’s hard to question the Colt’s decision to be reborn, but you don’t have to believe in karma to understand there are karmic implications to dumping your franchise-defining NFL MVP because he got hurt. Then tanking to get the young hot one. Then kind of semi-slurring your old guy to boot. I mean, it all worked out ok-ish, but you will hear the moral confusion in the crowd. It will be a palpable presence regardless how this game progresses.

    But even abstracting from any drama, the Broncos are more talented than the Colts at pretty much every offensive position and about half of the defensive ones. With the moral confusion pretty well negating whatever homefield should be worth, there is no way the Colts are just 6 points worse than the Broncs.

  2. cheddarclay says:

    Titans (+4) / 49ers

    Any decent team getting more than a FG at home in the NFL I always like. Titans are getting Locker back which will help the O that struggled w/ Fitzpatrick. They were just stackin on Johnson. expect a good game from him today. Also, the cross country thing, but might be negated somewhat by the 4pm start. Look for Titans to have a sense of urgency at home to end 2 game losing streak

  3. bupalos says:

    Lions early please. Essay and two more in the late slot.

  4. cleinmpls says:

    Pats -4
    Chiefs -6.5
    Ravens +2.5
    Cowboys +2.5

  5. mattborcas says:


    Clemson +3 over FSU (L)
    Ball State -18.5 over WMU (W)
    ND -3 over USC (W)
    Michigan -7.5 over Indiana (W)

    Pats -4 over Jets
    essay forthcoming

  6. thatsfine says:


    Winners: UNLV (essay), Washington St., Houston
    Losers: CMU, Clemson

    NFL pick: Titans +4 – I really considered taking the Chiefs for my NFL pick here, but I’m afraid Case Keenum is going to go out there and pull a Hoyer. I think the Titans are better than they’re getting credit for thus far.

  7. hitthehorns:

    Houston Texans +6.5

  8. oxr says:

    All-Play Clemson +3 (welp)

    For a brief shining moment last Sunday I was above the red line, which may end up being the highlight of my season

    Bears PK over Red Clouds, which is Mike Tanier’s suggestion for the DC franchise.

    Some dogs:
    Cowboys +2.5 over Eagles
    Bills +7.5 over Dolphins
    Bengals +2.5 over Lions

    Essay: Chiefs -6.5 over Texans – The Chiefs are legitimately tough defensively and playing at home against Case Keenum in his first NFL start; Rotoworld’s player notes include the phrase “essentially thrown to the wolves”. Either this is going to be one of these things where a rookie with no film footprint comes in and sets the league aflutter for six weeks, or else Houston is about to be relegated to the Pick Against Every Week basement. The Texans have been 29th in DVOA with their regular starting QB, and Keenum evidently hasn’t been systematically outplaying him in practice. Presumably the line is only so low because of Alex Smith’s amazing 40-watt offense, but a one-TD lead to win still seems like good value to me.

  9. Bevilacqua says:


    NFL Picks:
    Ravens (+2.5) over Steelers
    Jets (+4) over Patriots
    Chargers (-7.5) over Jaguars

    These picks already happened:
    UCLA (+6) over Stanford (L)
    Florida State (-3) over Clemson (W)
    ESSAY: Texas Tech (-6) over West Virginia (W)

  10. RickWFNY says:


    2 college picks submitted via twitter Saturday:
    Ohio State over Iowa
    Florida State over Clemson (All-Play)

    NFL picks:
    Patriots -4 over Jets
    Cowboys +2.5 over Eagles
    Ravens +2.5 over Steelers

    Using my essay-free essay pick this week:
    Broncos -6 over Colts

  11. DQuatts says:



    • DQuatts says:

      I guess Florida State is pretty good…

      Rest of my week:


      One thing that you don’t do is disrespect Peyton. Whether the comments actually hurt him or not is not the point…the point is he heard them. And his teammates heard them. And after a big letdown last week at home against the Jags, I see Denver bouncing back against a playoff caliber component. I still struggle to get the Colts personality as a team, and if Denver can keep Luck in check, I like them to comfortable win Sunday night in Indianapolis.

  12. oxr says:

    All-Play Clemson +3 over FSU for today; everything else tomorrow.

  13. jmacdaddio says:


    Clemson +3 over FSU
    Notre Dame -3 over USC (not a Fighting Irish fan, hate them actually, but spotting 3 points to a West Coast team in turmoil and traveling east to play in a prime time game at night looks like opportunity knocking)
    Wisconsin -12.5 over Illinois
    Jaguars +7.5 over Chargers
    Giants +3.5 over Vikings (First W of the year is coming, I can feel it. plus Josh Freeman has barely had time to get his reciever’s names straight, never mind the playbook. If he starts.)

    Essay: Chiefs -6.5 over Texans

    Last week I learned a valuable lesson: never rely on the Jets to win your essay pick. They’re okay to go against in your essay pick, but not to win. This week the Chiefs are hosting the Texans, and are only favored by a touchdown. Somehow I don’t see the Texans putting it all back together again with a change at QB. The Chiefs are undefeated and they’re playing at home against a team in free fall. Something seems off with the relatively low line on this game, so I’m essaying it.

  14. cheddarclay says:

    North Texas (-6.5) / La Tech
    Clemson (+3) / FSU
    Wiscy (-12.5) / Illinois
    Oregon St (-10) / Cal
    Bama (-27.5) / Arkansas

    NFL essay to follow

  15. bupalos says:

    Let me get Clemson and the 3, and wash state and the 39.

    Whoohoo I’m already up 6 touchdowns!!!

  16. mattborcas says:

    Clemson +3 over FSU
    Ball State -18.5 over WMU
    ND -3 over USC
    Michigan -7.5 over Indiana

  17. dwhalen says:

    My Pickem skills are floundering.

    BALL STATE -18.5 @ WMU. Western Michigan is relentlessly bad. Boatrace.

    FSU -3. @ CLEMSON. My heart wants Clemson. but my brain says Noles.

    A&M -12.5 v. AUBURN. I’ve a strong distaste for Johnny Manziel, I think A&M’s defense is awful. I just don’t know if the Tigers can come in and put up 40. that’s what it’s going to take.


    • dwhalen says:

      TEXANS +6.5 @ CHIEFS. Love the chiefs. They win by 4.

      BRONCOS -6 @ COLTS. Peyton doesn’t lose at home.

      $$$ BROWNS +9.5 @ PACKERS $$$

      It’s going to take about 145135235436346 Lobsterfests for me to get back into this bitch.

      Three starting linebackers, Randall Cobb, and possibly James Jones on the bench. Joe Haden should be locked onto Jordy Nelson all day long, and Mr. Foswhit Whitacre should get a few chances in the screen game to exorcise his escapability. Ground and pound should be the theme for the day, so as to keep Brandon Weeden from doing all kinds of retarded things with the football. Not sure how his teammates or coaches can have a single ounce of trust in him moving forward after that bag of shit he pulled last week in the 4th quarter.

      Can the Browns win? doubtful, but still possible. Can they cover 9.5? Absolutely. I’m willing to bet we take the lead into halftime, only to come out and dirty our diapers in the 3rd quarter as usual. I don’t think this team is far away. I actually think they’re a playoff team with even a middle-of-the-road QB, especially with as down as the division is this year.

      But what do I know, I have 18 fucking points through seven weeks.

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