Congrats to AmpEsq on his Lobsterfest,, good time of the year to hit that.
Exec Cmte has decided to make the ThankYouForYourService gala an annual all-play. It’s just easier as it solves the pick at least one college game a week problem faced this time of year.
So here’s a picture of the next Army helicopter under development (hard to say but probably clocks in at $100M per and there were 4000 Blackahwks built so… that’s an outlay).
And did you know that the Navy is building _another_ Ford-class aircraft carrier? At around $13B let’s hope this one will be able to launch their supply of $1.5T-program-cost F35s because the first $13B carrier still cannot.
Ah don’t worry, I’m sure that in addition to providing security to our greatest allies, the Saudis and Israelis, these programs will stimulate our struggling rust belt manufacturing base providing living wages to thousands of displaced NAFTA blue collar workers and thus helping sustain the viable middle class without which our society will implode. Oh wait, you don’t live in Virginia or Texas. Welpp… don’t worry, trust the plan, and be sure to support-the-troops as you will be encouraged to do with every patriotic commercial shown during this game.
And never forget the mission: (click link if embed is clunky)
kanick 
Dolphins +3.5
Bills +2
Rams -1
Browns -3
AP: Army +10.5
Essay:
Pats -9 no essay week
Essay — Browns (-3) at Cardinals
In honor of my Dad and co-season ticket holder who passed away during the second half of last Sunday’s game and taught me always to take the home dog on Monday night.
You have to think Mayfield has some extra incentive facing both Murray and Kingsbury this week and that he also wants to get the Browns to .500. Murray also has been struggling the past couple weeks and looks like Arizona is in planning for next year mode.
Seahawks -6
Giants -3.5
Titans -3
Eagles -4.5
(AP): Late 😦
Essay: Packers -4
Honestly, I actually see a lot of offense in this game. The Packers will get up early behind a couple ARod TD strikes, and the Bears will have to rely… yes, I said rely on Mitchell Trubisky to try and keep them in the game. In the 4th Quarter, with the Bears down 7, Trubisky will run the ball in and attempt a Lambeau Leap, only to be powerbombed by a disgruntled Packers fan; ending his season. Rodgers will then lead the Packers on an 80-yard drive, capped off with a run of his own and, you guessed it, a Lambeau Leap! Packers 28 Bears 21
Texans +3
Browns -3**
Bills +2
Vikings -2.5
Cowboys +1
Army
Baker revenge game. Warren sharpe posted an interesting thread about how bakers faced the second toughest schedule regarding pass defenses. Also turns out arizona stinks against play action. Baker feeds off of situations like these. Hopefully the defense can step up.
titans -3
chiefs -9.5
raiders -6.5
bills +2
dolphins+3.5
The dolphins have plenty to gain with this win. There is heavy chatter in the NE area that MIA is the leader for TB 12 and Josh McDaniels next year. It adds up: dolphins have cap space and good draft picks, head coach Brian Flores is their buddy, they would stay in the division and play belichick twice each season and it’s ground zero for super G (models, celebrities and easy access to Brazil). The one thing the current Dolphins needs is learn how to win. Flores knows this. And, the NYG are a chinese fire drill. give me Miami +3.5
hometeam
Essay: Steelers. No idea how the steelers are 8-5. We are now even hearing Mike Tomlin coach of the year rumblings. Mike F-ing Tomlin. I’ve got to hand it to him though. 8-5 with this clown car is an achievement. Smoke and mirrors or whatever laying points with this group against another 9-4 squad (even if it is the Jills) is stomach turning. I mean who wants to do this? We just saw the Jills dumb the Girls on T-day and now they get whoever the Steelers QB is in a prime time spot. Sounds dicey. I’m in. Steelers for the essay.
Army +10.5
All Play: Army +10.5
Rest of picks to come later
AP: army
Chiefs
Seahawks
Packers
Texans
Essay: Vikings
The Los Angeles chargers of San Diego have been pathetic for a long time. Over the years of being pathetic losers they have always somehow come up big to win meaningless games towards the end of seasons. They have managed to pull off these pointless wins at “home” usually, in front of crowds of opposing fans. Tomorrow, in Carson, CA, a pointless meaningless city in between suburbia in Orange County and Los Angeles, the chargers will be at home in a soccer stadium full of Vikings fans. This is the beginning of the chargers downfall and inability to pull off wins when they matter the least. The Vikings are a solid team with a real future this year. I don’t think rivers is able to keenitnup and I think “Kurt” cuz is going to pull off the Carson city mmiracle and pull out the win.
1. Army
2. Lions
3. Chargers
4. Philly
5. Browns
6. Essay: Pats
I’m not sure Andy Dalton is going to be able to do much against the Pats defense. I think Tom Brady will have the ball a ton and be able to put up some points to cover. Bengals are in line to get either Joey B or Chase Young and I don’t think they are looking to screw that up. 24-10 pats
Navy
Seahawks
49ers
Bills
Patriots
Cowboys essay
The life of a football kicker is a tough one. You only play a few seconds of every game, nobody says much when you do your job and everyone hates you when you don’t play well. Imagine if your quarterback had a completion percentage of 75%. It would be great, but if a kicker has that same percentage it’s time to get rid of him. Poor Brett Maher, sets NFL kicking record and gets fired 6 weeks later. From star to has been just like that. Enter Kai Forbath. Second best kicker his year in the draft, doesn’t get drafted. He gets signed, hurt, moves, plays 3 years setting records and doing great, then trades and preseason kick off second places lands him as only playing back up for years. Now he gets a time to shine again. I’m hoping it’s enough as I only need the cowboys to win by a field goal.
Navy -10.5
Just woke up. Looks like it’s an afternoon essay
Bucs -3.5
Texans +3
Chargers +2.5 Essay
Cowboys +1
Falcons +10.5
Let’s take “home” points, or at least non-traveling points with the Chargers. Most folks probably haven’t noticed, but the Chargers have the #4 ranked total defense this year and haven’t given up 100 yards rushing since Week 8. And, the offense is good, #10 ranked overall in yards gained and haven’t lost a game by more than 7. And though it hasn’t translated to winning football games or even covering spreads, it certainly makes these more likely to occur. I think the defense is going to shut down Dalvin Cook, forcing the Vikings to pass, then harass Kirk Cousins all day long.
Army +10.5 over Navy
Bucs -3.5 over Lions
Eagles -4.5 over Redskins
Packers -4 over Bears (essay)
Titans -3 over Texans
Rams -1 over Cowboys
All favorites for Sunday after striking out on Army today. Love the Pack here. Let’s pump the breaks on the Bears already. Yeah, they won 4 of their last 5, but that’s 2 against the NFC East and 2 against the Lions. That’s easy mode. Won’t be so easy for Mitch in the frozen tundra. Green Bay doesn’t really blow teams out, so I’m really liking the line movement here. The opening line at 6.5 is probably a pass or maybe even a Bears pick. I trust Aaron Rodgers to cover 4.
Some interesting facts about this matchup: It’s the 200th matchup between these two teams. The Bears held a 22 game lead in the series going into Brett Favre’s first entry; the Packers now lead by 3 games. It’s the first time ever that Green Bay has led the rivalry by as many as 3 games. And of course, their last matchup was in week one. It was a 10-3 Packer win. Rodgers won by 7 with only 166 yards passing? I think he can do it again.
All-Play Army +10.5 over Navy
Broncos +9.5 over Chiefs
Seahawks -6 over Panthers
Bills +2 over Steelers
Vikings -2.5 over Chargers
Essay skip week: Eagles -4.5 over Redskins
army.
looking at bucs, bengals, broncos, cards, bills… back with bills essay later.
was looking up some other stats on pff (who is the beast defensive player for the bills,,, it’s micah hyde) and stumbled on devlin hodges, league leading adjusted completions percentage. last week i plowed forward with the jets essay in the face of realizing moseley and adams would be out, this week i’ll listen. drop the bills essay, keep it for one point. i will promote the broncos to essay because that same webpage shows drew lock in the top 5. lock two starts have been underdog outright wins, impressive. chiefs broncos is still a real rivalry so 9.5 points is a shit ton. plus with the chiefs already in clinched for the division arrowhead will be secretly cheering for their son of dear missouri qb. no not really on the last part but ill go ahead and take the broncos and the points here.
navy
Panthers +6
Bears +4
Browns -3
Cowboys -1
AP: Navy -10.5
Essay: Chiefs -9.5
Chiefs have a lot to play for, as that first round bye is very in play. They are getting healthier and looking very good, including their defense being average (which is better than its been). Meanwhile, Broncos caught the Texans napping after the Texans big win in New England. I think the Chiefs have all the evidence they need to take the Broncos serious and now they have tape on the rookie QB Lock. So I see the Chiefs putting one one. Chiefs 27, Broncos 13
Let’s go with Army.
Texans +3 over Titans
Bears +4 over Packers
Cards +3 over Browns
Vikings -2.5 over Chargers
Essay: Bills +2 over Steelers
The inexplicable, comically shortsighted Duck Hodges hype train makes all the “Kyle Allen is a franchise quarterback” takes from earlier this season seem like reasoned analysis. Yes, he’s better than Mason Rudolph, but that’s about all there is to conclude from his two starts. It should go without saying that a pair of close wins against the Browns and the Cardinals doesn’t mean the Steelers’ passing game will be a force to be reckoned with in January. Anyway, Buffalo’s defense is formidable and has managed to flummox a number of QBs who are vastly superior to Duck. Coming off a close loss to the presumed best team in the NFL, the Bills will take care of business in Pittsburgh with the AFC East crown still within reach.
Navy
cardinals +3 essay
falcons +10.5
patriots-9
eagles -4.5
texans +3
we all saw the ravens game on Thursday night and they come to Cleveland next week. this seems like the perfect game to sprain an ankle or pull a hamstring or have your sports hernia flare up to get out of having to play that team and get embarrassed on your home field. chubb will keep running hard and kareem hunt to his credit has looked in shape and prepared to play since his first snap. arizona has lost 6 in a row but if this is larry fitzgeralds last home game I hope they send him out with a win. excited to see more of kyler murray after watching him battle the Steelers last week.
Army +10.5 (All Play)
Eagles -4.5
Giants -3.5
Seahawks -6
Falcons +10.5
Pats -9 (Essay)
The Pats are coming off two losses straight losses and heading to Cincy to take on the lowly Bengals. Watching that Bengals-Browns game last week you can see just how bad this Bengals squad really is. They were terrible in the red zone. Even worse than the Browns. LOL. I feel like the Pats generally clean up in these games where they play garbage teams and the number is high. I expect a very workmanlike effort from the Pats today. A couple 2nd half Dalton interceptions help them run up the score. Pats big on the road as they look to the right the ship.
Navy -10.5
Essay: Pats -9
Better on offense, better on defense, and better at following through on the motto if you ain’t cheating you ain’t trying. The Pats didn’t need to film the Bengals for an advantage. Just look at the coaches and the players for all the advantage they needed. Now, with this filming story, it will be the Pats and not the Bengals that get extra motivation out of it. Pats will use this as a rallying call that everyone is against them still, blah blah blah. Bengals will be paranoid all week about what else did they see that wasn’t on the tape (man, I’d love to log in to whatever cloud based storage account the Pats use for one day to see all the “scouting” folders and other misc. schemes). I get the feeling the Bengals are content with this season since they got their one win. Positioning in draft is going to be more important than a December upset over the Patriots. The next time I expect to see a pulse from the Bengals will be the finale vs. the Browns – unless they don’t have the #1 pick secured at that point. Today it will be Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots doing as they please on both sides of the ball cruising to an easy win.
1. Eagles -4.5
2. Bucs -3.5
3. Texans +3
4. Browns -3
5. AP: Navy – 10.5
6. Essay: Pats -9
Army +10.5 (AP)
Bears +4
Texans +3
NYG -3.5
Falcons +10.5
Essay: Chargers +2.5
Call me crazy but I like the Chargers in this spot. The world is on the Vikings and with good reason but I have doubts about Mr. Cousins outside of 1:00 eastern time slot and traveling west. We say the Packers lay a complete egg vs. the Charger team and I’m not saying the same will happen but I can see it playing out that way. The Vikings looked a little flat last week and have the Packers and Bears on deck to end the season. Thielen is uncertain but expected to play. I expect Zimmer and crew to run the ball, play conservatively and get out with a win and healthy before 2 tough division foes. Vikings win but Chargers keep it close, 24-23
1) Baltimore Raisins (by email)
2) Army +10.5 (throw out the records, folks)
Four more votes plus essay tomorrow.
3) Chiefs -9.5 over Broncos
4) Steelers -2 over Bills
5) Cardinals +3 over Browns
6) ***Cowboys +1 over Rams***
As much as I expect Kyler Murray to go off today against the current version of the Cleveland Browns “think less play faster” defense it’s too hard for me to trust anything in or related to Arizona to risk three points on it so I guess I’m stuck on the Cowboys train again even after my Thanksgiving essay debacle (it was the first time in awhile that Old Frowner had lost a Thanksgiving essay and let me tell you it still smarts). Anyway, this is nothing more fancy than thinking the Rams are due to come back to earth after last week’s surprising and probably overrated win vs. Seattle while Dallas is due to get back into the W column.
Best to all on this darkest football weekend of the season.
army +10.5
hometeam
Army +10.5, just in case I don’t hear the alarm clock tomorrow and don’t wake up in time to put my picks in.
Army +10.5 (loss)
Titans -3 (Essay)
Packers -4
Bengals +9
Giants -3.5
Rams -1
The Titans are on a roll, and quietly are tied for the lead in their division (they lose the tiebreaker due to a better in-divison win percentage). I couldn’t name a single Titan player at this point. The Texans have JJ Watt and Deshaun Watson. I’m still picking the Titans despite knowing absolutely nothing about them.
Vic Fangio, soon to be the former head coach of the Broncos, would like to see divisions scrapped:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/broncos-coach-vic-fangio-believes-nfl-should-get-rid-of-divisions-altogether-suggests-new-playoff-format/
I’m on board. The whole structure exists so fans can see Giants-Cowboys and Bears-Packers and Vikings-Packers twice a year. It’s also helped the Pats run the table by virtue of being grouped with truly terrible teams. Divisions made sense when the stupid money wasn’t everywhere, when players needed to bunk in crappy hotel rooms and travel by train. Now that every team has private jets, hyberbaric chambers, and personal chefs, travel is a non-factor. Time for a balanced schedule.
1. Army +10.5
2. Chargers
3. Cowboys
4. Colts
5. Falcons
6. Steelers (essay): This comes down to how Josh Allen plays in a primetime game in a hostile environment against a top 5 defense like the Steelers. He hasn’t proven that he can succeed. Allen has faced four top 13 pass defenses — Cleveland, Denver, New England, and Baltimore — and in those games, Allen has completed only 50% of his passes for 5.6 YPA, 3 TD, 4 INT, and he has been sacked 12 times. The Bills are 1-3 in those games. I have zero faith in Allen on Sunday night in this spot.
I don’t expect any sort of great offensive performance from Duck Hodges and the Steelers either but he has done a really good job of taking what the defense has given him with the occasional deep pass mixed in. He has completed 71% of his passes for an outstanding 8.5 YPA. He is the 10th-rated QB based on DVOA.
The Steelers should do just enough on offense to win and cover this game.
Seattle (-6)
Tennessee (-3)
Buffalo (+2)
Chargers (+2.5)
AP – Navy (-10.5)
Essay – Patriots (-9.5)
We’ll call this a Belichick mini-revenge game. Last week’s weak attempt at starting a Spygate 3.0 should help propel the Pats towards their annual playoff reboot. Flimsy as the purported evidence was, the sheer outrage among the Boston sports media (which have a huge influence across the national scope) is comical. The Simmons-esque cries of the NFL being unfair towards the Patriots can only be drowned out by “they destroyed the f–ing evidence!!!” some 15-20 years ago. Anyways, this latest chapter is a bit pathetic but should at least spark the Pats.
Army +10.5
Ravens -14.5
Army 10.5
Rams -1
Chargers 2.5
Patriots -9
Essay: Houston +3
Still kicking myself for taking the Texans last week as a TD-plus home favorite, a role that the BOB-coached squad always seems to flop in. But I’m confidently taking the field goal this week as the enter a much friendlier historical spot, as a road dog with their backs against the wall. Tannehill and the Titans have played outstanding ball lately, but — based on little more than a gut feel here — I think the Texans find a way to cover.
Sea -6
Bears +4
Hou +3
Rams -1
Navy -10.5
Essay: Oak -6.5
The Jags have quit on their Coach. The team is devoid of Talent. I have been riding this train the last 3 weeks. We are utter garbage and this is no exception. The last game in Oakland Raider History in the Black Hole, John Grudden a wayyyy better coach, its gonna be brutal. Jags are hot garbage out West and this is no exception. Oakland wins going away 38-20 in a game that is not as close as it seems.
Navy
Cards
Chargers
Steelers
Patriots
Seattle
The Panthers are dead. Seattle crashed back to earth last week but still has plenty to play for. Strangely, the Seahawks are really good off long trips and I just think they throttle this Panthers team. Russ Wilson has been human but only needs to be sharp, and I think there’s too much weaponry here. The Panthers firing their coach with 5 weeks left says it all. The Seahawks roll on to set up a big finish.
1. Seahawks -6 @ Panthers
2. Bills +2 @ Steelers
3. Dolphins +3.5 @ Giants
4. Rams -1 @ Cowboys
AP: Army +10.5 v. Navy
Essay: Chargers +2.5 v. Vikings
I like the Chargers in this spot despite them playing in a hostile home stadium. All the presure is on the Vikings and their not even a field goal favorite? Kirk Cousins has been bad playing a non-1pm Eastern starts. He’s not been good on grass. Chargers have been playing well of late mostly because they are finally getting healthy, but haven’t got the results, losing close games. Add in a banged up Adam Theilen and Dalvin Cook, LA’s other team is the play here.
wene is on the ravens tonight
frowns also.
Tampa -3.5 @ Detroit
Tenn -3 vs. Houston
Denver +9.5 @ KC
Bills +2 @ Pittsburgh
All Play – Army +10.5 vs. Navy
**Essay Pick / Minnesota -2.5 @ LAC**
Phillip Rivers is gonna have an unfortunate let down this week. Coming off of his smack talk filled, birthday party of a win against a bad Jags team, he and his 37 kids have got to be feeling pretty good. HOWEVER, the chargers aren’t great and they’re gonna lose another close one this week. They’re out of the playoffs because they don’t know how to finish. Every game they play is a win or a loss between 3 and 7 points. So I’m either going to be right on with this line, or just off. I think this game is a case of “what’s in it for me” – and only one team has anything real on the line. If Minnesota keeps up with the trend of improving pass d, holds on to the ball for long drives and possession football, I see them flying back to the Midwest with a 3-7 point win. Probably going to be a pretty boring game actually Vikings 17 – Chargers 10