Ohio -20.5 at BGSU
EMU +5 at NIU
Form linked above. Lines here: 2019wk13
Congrats to CapGG for his weekly win last week. Seven points got him ninety beans. Noice.
We went with Packers/Niners because we’re fairly certain to be visiting the Buckeyes next week for the Michigan game. Yes OSU/PSU is a biggie.
kanick 
1. Utah -22
2. ASU +14.5
3. Boise St. -7.5
4. Browns -11
5. All-Play: Packers +3
6. Essay: UT +4
Essay: UT +4 @ Missouri
UT and Mizzou both sit at 5 wins. The winner tonight will officially be bowling* (it appears in doing more research Mizzou may not be even with a win, but far more complicated than I care about for a lowly SEC team that would get crushed by some Big 10 competition in December https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/vahe-gregorian/article237640819.html). Recent performance would indicate UT takes this no problem. Granted, Mizzou’s competition of late has been quite better than UT’s. This is actually UT’s second game coming off a bye week this year. The first time they came off a bye there was vast improvement from the awful early season performance and I’m expecting more improvement this week. It won’t be easy, it’ll be close, but in the end the best live dog mascot in college, Smokey, is going to will this UT team that was written off early in the season to a win tonight, giving them the honor of getting hosed by Indiana in late December.
1) Ohio State – LOSS
2) Jags +3
3) Cowboys +6
4) Saints -10
AP) 49ers -3
Essay) Rams -3
Rams defense is peaking and is especially against the run. The Rams offense seems to be figuring somethings out and is going against a Ravens D that has been feasting against mediocre/bad offenses (yeah, even the pats game). So the Ravens are good, but not this good and due for a letdown. Moreover, their ultimate strength and they way Lamar has been able to excel is still on the ground, playing “old school” – but that goes into the Rams strength. I don’t buy it this week, especially them winning by more than a FG. Rams 20, Ravens 17
Kansas State +2.5 over TTU
Essay: Cowboys +6 over Patriots
The Patriots’ offense is abjectly impotent, and the Cowboys have scored 35+ points in three of their last four outings despite an uncharacteristically quiet stretch from Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas can’t afford to be one-dimensional against New England’s top-ranked defense, so I expect Zeke to carry a heavy load today and post numbers similar to what Nick Chubb did in Foxborough last month (minus the fumbles, of course). Meanwhile, Tom Brady suffered a mysterious right elbow injury this week, leaving him unable to finish Friday’s practice, and disappointing midseason acquisition Mohamed Sanu is ailing from an ankle injury. Unless Josh McDaniels plans on unveiling more trick plays today, I don’t see how the Pats will cover.
Packers +3 over 49ers
Jets +2.5 over Raiders
Rams +3 over Ravens
Titans -3 over Jags
College game TCU +18 over Oklahoma because I’m too late to get on the UCLA bandwagon
Broncos +4 over Bills – the great thing about starting Joe Flacco at QB is that it doesn’t matter so much if you lose your starting QB (also it’s a DVOA mismatch in general)
All-Play 49ers -3 over Packers – not overly confident about this one but I think the number’s too small
Lions -3.5 over Skins despite all the injuries
Steelers -6.5 over Bengals – potential for AFCN weirdness outmatched by potential that the Bengals literally aren’t trying anymore
Essay Ravens -3 over Rams – I have spent too much of this season starting Jared Goff on my fantasy football team, which, in related news, sucks (today I have given up and am starting Baker Mayfield). At this point the Rams are a mediocre team being held above water by their defense, basically the Broncos with fewer zany last-minute losses. Everyone has seen what Lamar Jackson has been up to lately; certainly it can’t last forever but God knows I wouldn’t feel good picking against him right now, and unless Goff can string a couple of drives together the Rams defense is in for a long night. #2 vs #14 in weighted DVOA. Kind of surprised this line isn’t 7.
UCLA +14
AP: Niners -3
JAX JAGS: +3.5
PATS: -6
ESSAY: RAVENS: -3
RAIDERS: -3
Essay Ravens -3:
I’m riding my fantasy football quarterback, Mr. Lamar Jackson, my favorite player in all of football. Not only is Lamar jackson a humble and great teammate, he is also the most fun player to watch. The guy is just different. The ravens are playing like a team that expects to win the super bowl. The rams are acting like a team that expects to win the super bowl. I think they think they deserve the super bowl this year Bc they should have won last year, but I think nfl coaches has solved Sean mcvay’s Offense and the jets sweep.
The thing that scares me about this game is that one could say that the rams need it more given that their division race is so close. But the ravens also “need” it. Because. The. Pats. The pats are always looking and the ravens need home field, and if they can win this game, they have it. Also, even though the rams need it more in the direct sense of simply needing it to make the playoffs, the Monday night factor further evens this out. I just started thinking about Ramsey, and Aaron Donald on the rams defense, and now I’m scared though. Lol. Good luck ch’all.
Penn State
UCLA
Minnesota
Oklahoma State -6.5
UCF -5.5
hometeam
SMU +3.5
UAB -4.5
jets +2.5 essay (to follow)
green bay +3 all play
hometeam
the Raiders beat the Bengals, but the Bengals were in the game. When the Raiders have had a sound opponent (LAC) the margin of victory is 2 points. Gruden is a real coach and the Raiders are a team debuting for their new home. Today, however, the Jets have momentum. Darnold has come to play recently, and he can play. The watch here is Jets defense. Keep the game in control through the first half and it’s a must watch. give me the J-E-T-S jets jets jets.
hometeam
fhcf essay
Wvu 1 point
Temple 1 point
Kent State
The Flashes are excited to be playing football as evidenced by their wild comeback last week. That matters in these games when it’s cold and windy and 300 are on hand. I know Dustin Fox and Reghi will be dressed nicely and I know the Flashes will be motivated. That matters, and I think they win a close and wild game. Fight on Flashes.
Ohio State -18
NFL picks tomorrow….
Illinois +15.5 vs Iowa
UCLA +14 vs USC
Packers +3 at Niners
Bears -6.5 vs Giants*essay no essay
Steelers -6.5 vs Bengals
Browns -11 vs Dolphins
Essay: Northwestern – Let’s be clear, Northwestern is terrible. I mean unreal fucking bad. But, this is a premium spot for them. They basically had a bye week last week (although they made it look difficult) and now catch Minny in my absolute favorite spot – undefeated team late in season off a loss. Love this potential spiral spot, especially for a team that has overachieved and probably isn’t that great to begin with. NW on the other hand has nothing to play for but may give a spirited effort to polish the turd that has been this season.
Ohio State -18
Browns -11***
Rams +3
Eagles -1.5
Raiders -2.5
Packers +3
This should be the game baker OBJ and juice have a real party up on the lake. The browns schedule from a defensive perspective has been brutal. Now finally the browns get a team that without Fitzpatrick literally have no weapons to slow down the browns. I expect the browns to be fired up. Plus we get a Njoku back which should be a sight for sore eyes for baker. Myles abscence should have minimal impact this week. Hopefully it inspires some good football
SMU +3.5 this all depends on what navy team comes to play this week…Also, SMU can score, a lot
Air Force -21.5 New Mexico might be the worst team in the country, they’ve lost 7 straight and have 15 season ending injuries. This will be ugly
Ball State -3.5 I don’t think Kent can score with them. MACtion is always fun
North Texas -6.5 RICE IS TERRIBLE
AP: Green Bay +3 I don’t like either pick in this game so I’m just taking the points
***ESSAY***
Utah -22
This will be a complete blowout. This has beat down written all over it. Utah has won 6 straight and in those 6 they’ve only given up 10+ points 1 time. At the other end of the spectrum, Arizona has lost 5 straight and they haven’t given up less than 35 in any of those games. A season that started promising for Kevin Sumlin at 4-1 is now a dumpster fire that will most likely end on a 7 game losing streak. Utah is far superior to this Arizona team. Their punter can probably just stay on campus because they will score on every drive today. This will be a 52/49-6 game. Over by halftime. Give me the Utes for 3
Wisconsin -24
Georgia -13.5
Browns -11
Patriots -6
AP: Packers +3
Essay: Falcons -4
Really don’t have much to go on here other than the fact that the Falcons looked horrendous earlier this year which was a head scratcher (similar to Philly, but worse). The last two weeks their D manhandled the Saints and even though they let McCaffrey do serious work last weekend they held the Panthers to only three points…on the road for both games as well. Tampa comes in with a potent offense, but I’m thinking it just took the Falcons 1/2 a season to figure out they were good. Scoring hasn’t been a problem for Matt Ryan and this offense other than a couple games thus far. Trend continues this week. Offense keeps scoring and the D continues their two week run of looking like the best defense in the NFL. SKOL!
One biscuit: Utah (-22), Bills (-4), Falcons (-4), Raiders (-2.5)
All Play: Niners (-3)
Essay: Nebraska (-4) at Maryland — Somewhere Scott Frost is wishing that Rutgers was on the schedule this year too so that the Huskers might have a shot at getting bowl eligible. However, after the Terps, the Huskers have to face Iowa. Both teams are not the greatest, but Maryland has been worse and it is a manageable spread since Nebraska should be able to win by at least six.
Niners -3
Ravens -3
WVU +6.5
Penn St +18
Virginia Tech -4
Syracuse +10 (Essay)
It’s just not a proper Cheddar season without an essay on Syracuse, especially now that we’re in the cold time of year. Last week’s scoreline against Duke on the road was impressive. Maybe they’ve woken up or something. Louisville is up and down it seems. 10 points should cover the difference. This would be more of a rivalry week game if it was basketball, with probably less of a point spread.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! The most interesting NFL game looks like Bills-Cowboys. I’d almost rather wash dishes than watch Falcons-Saints, and I’d rather argue politics than watch Bears-Lions.
Packers +3 (AP)
UCLA +14
Colorado +14.5
Eagles -1.5
Pats -6
Essay: Bucs +4
Non essay essay week for me as I’m in Vegas celebrating turning old. Short version here is that the world is on Atlanta after back to back impressive wins. They’re still not that good and I believe Jameis is better on the road and will throw the ball all over Falcons just like at Rams and at Seahawks. Bucs outright 27-24.
1. Wake Forest -7 v. Duke
2. Minnesota -14 @ Northwestern
3. Jets +2.5 v. Raiders
4. Michigan State -20.5 @ Rutgers
5. Ohio State -18 v. Penn State
AP/Essay: 49ers -3 v. Packers
It figures the week I’m busy and traveling and doing my picks hungover on too little sleep is also the week I hit the weekly. Whatever, I’ll take it.
And then I’m making the All-play my essay? What is going on here?
Anyway, 9ers have been the most impressive team in the league. Their D-Line is straight nasty with the 5 number 1 picks (have you heard about those 5 number 1 picks?). And Kyle Shannahan’s zone blocking scheme, offensive variety, and male model Jimmy G. can score on everyone. They finally dropped a game 2 weeks ago so thate monkey is off their backs. Packers and Aaron Rodgers continue to get too much public love, so I’ll happily give the 3 here with San Fran.
Colorado State +7 – essay
“The Border War”, as if there is some fortification on I-25 between Fort Collins and Laramie. Happy to get +7 here, as I’ve mostly seen this at 6.5 all week. It’s actually down to 6 now, despite the public being on Wyoming. Wyoming, somehow is 6-4 despite being outgained in total yards in 8 of their 10 games this year, including by New Mexico and Texas State. They are coming off tough losses to Boise State and USU since starting QB Sean Chambers was lost for the year. His backup isn’t a huge step down but doesn’t present the same running threat which makes defending their running game easier. Last week USU intercepted him 3 times. They have a good scoring defense but are soft against the pass giving up 282/game, which CSU has got going the past four weeks during a 3-1 stretch. It’s pretty much the thing the Rams do best. CSU’s backup QB Patrick O’Brien threw for 347 last week in the loss to Air Force. He’s averaging 309/game since taking over as starter. And while CSU’s defense is statistically below average, Wyoming’s ranks 105th in total offense at 345 ypg and their starting QB is out, starting RB is banged up. I’ll take the points and am looking for a road upset tonight.
Oregon State +10.5
Packers +3
Rams +3
Cowboys +6
Eagles -1.5
Buckeyes -18 (homer pick and also fading Clay Travis)
Allpick: GB +3
Denver +4
Browns -11
Jets +2.5
Essay: Atlanta -4. My essay picks have been keeping me alive, and this one I make through gritted teeth. But something clicked on the bye for this Falcons squad, which has eviscerated divisional opponents by a combined score of 55-12 in consecutive weeks, both on the road. Returning to the “other” Mercedes Benz stadium, the Dirty Birds welcome turnover machine Jameis Winston and the Bucs’ pass-funnel defense. Matty O lights it up in the dome, and the Falcons cruise to a third straight divisional win, leaving their fans to wonder where the f*ck this was all season.
Northwestern +14
NY Jets +2.5
New England -6
Philadelphia -1.5
AP – San Francisco -3
Essay – Buffalo -4
Taking the Bills at home has been my 1B go-to move** for nearly three Cheddar years. Yet, as the Bills have improved to what looks like a Wild Card team this year, my luck taking them has run out. I’ve been burned by them twice…..so let’s try it again! They’re in a bit of a slump – losing to the Eagles and Browns, while their last two wins have come against the Dolphins. However, they are figuratively due for a big win and if the LaCanfora reports coming out of Denver are true – the Broncos are a bit of a mess and likely a bit more deflated than usual after blowing what could have been a huge upset in Minnesota last weekend. I’ll take sneaky good Josh Allen and an O-Line where Wyatt Teller was third string.
**Betting against DeShone Kizer and Hue Jackson is 1A.
Ok State -6.5 @ West Virginia
Minnesota -14 @ Northwestern
North Texas -6.5 @ Rice
Baltimore Ravens -3 @ LA Rams
All Play Niners -3
Essay – **Baylor -5.5 vs. Texas**
Despite Baylor’s performance last week, I think it’s fair to say Baylor is trending up and Texas isn’t trending (not really down, but not up). Tom Herman was supposed to bring Texas back but it doesn’t seem to be going to plan, even with a QB-Ehlinger to get behind. Rhule and Baylor on the other hand, are back from the dead in year 3 of his coaching tenure. The Baylor O can put up a whole bunch of points right quick and in a hurry and their defense, other than last week, has been strong. I haven’t seen or heard a lot about Texas since their loss to LSU early in the year, which means they’re probably not doing too much. Baylor has a lot to play for still and a strong bounce back against a marquee (in name only) opponent is just the ticket. I think Matt Rhule, who has proved he can turn around programs – he should turn around on a game by game situation- gets his team focused, the O to keep the pedal down and score throughout the whole game, and the D to play like they did in the first 60 minutes against TCU two weeks ago. Baylor 35 – Texas 17.
OSU -18 over PSU
Indiana +8.5 over Michigan
Steelers -6.5 over Bengals
Jets +2.5 over Raiders
Eagles -1.5 over Seahawks
Packers +3 over 49ers
Strike Eagles/Seahawks, replace with Illinois +15.5 over Iowa
Illinois Essay:
This is a weird line and usually I stay away from weird lines, but Illinois also had a weird line against MSU and won outright, so I like this matchup. Illinois has loads of confidence and is playing with house money. So is Iowa, but Illinois had the benefit of a bye week. Playing Minnesota takes a lot out of a team and Iowa, with nothing else to really play for, is primed for a let down. Also, this isn’t an Iowa team that blows anyone out anyway. I like their chances to win at home but this is an enormous line against an Illinois team that has won tough games, played really hard in the second half against Wisconsin, MSU, and Michigan, and still has more to prove. Illinois may be a bowl team already but now Lovie Smith has a chance to put his stamp on a really positive season. The intangibles favor Illinois big time, while the tangibles don’t really show that Iowa is over two touchdowns better.
Wyoming Cowboys – 7 vs. Colorado St.
Minnesota Golden Gophers -14 @ Northwestern
Southern Miss -4 vs. Western Kentucky
Steelers -6.5 @ Bengals
(AP): Niners -3 vs. Packers
Essay: Bills -4 vs. Broncos
On a neutral field, I would like the Bills to cover here. The Broncos 1st Half was a fluke last week, and I really don’t see them coming close in this one. Lack of offense, especially against a tough Buffalo defense will be their undoing (Den 27th in scoring, Bills D 3rd in points allowed… hmm.) Although the Bills don’t have a stellar offense, I think they have enough to win this game by double digits, in a grind-it-out fashion. Look for Buffalo to control the clock, by pounding the ground and holding the Broncos to quite a few 3-and-out’s. Gimme Buffalo, I will lay the points. Bills 24 Broncos 13
Illinois +15.5
Nebraska -4
Miami (FL) -20.5
Jets +2.5
Packers +3
Rams + 3 (Essay)
Probably should do an essay this week, and I’m going to take the Rams at home. It sucks backing Jared Goff, but I do think the Ravens are due for a clunker. We’re all crowning Lamar and Ravens, so hopefully Wade Phillips and crew give them hell tonight. I expect the Rams to hang around, and maybe Gurley goes off tonight? He got 20+ carries last week against the Bears, but I do fear the Rams will actually have to score some points to this week. Ugly game and Rams find a way to win 21-20.
Kent
1) Vote of the Week: Colts +3.5 over Texans
Somehow the franchises that get ripped out of cities never end up as cursed as the fake teams that replace them. Brutal spot for the Texans here after getting completely destroyed by the Raisins having to face a Colts squad that’s on the upswing with Brissett back under center. Guess I’ll have to make this my no-essay essay week seeing as how the clock’s about to strike 7:20. Go Colts.
2) Penn St. +18 over tOSU
3) Texas +5.5 over Baylor
4) Dolphins +11 over Browns
5) Cowboys +6 over Pats
6) Niners -3 over GB
Colts, NC state
Ethical and procedural question for the EC. I put Colorado St in the drop down but forgot to put in the comment. Frowns says I should just take the loss but he is biased because he is only 1/2 a point ahead of me in the standings.
49ers
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors essay. Ever make your weekly picks and then a few days later you can’t remember why you chose your essay at all? Maybe it just stemmed from my childhood love of the Rainbow Brite crew-Red Butler, Lala Orange, Canary Yellow, Patty O-Green, Buddy Blue, and Shy Violet. Maybe it was my feeling bad for these kids having to make multiple trans-Pacific flights every fall. Maybe it was the opposite of that and their having an extra-powerful home field advantage by their opponents being distracted by the dewey sweetness of their tropical paradise. Maybe just wondering what the answer is to the age old question of can having a good offense make up for a bad defense when one’s opponent has a good defense and a bad offense? Sure SDS’s defense against the rush is ranked 2nd, but they are 33rd overall in yards allowed. Hawai’i’s quarterback had a pass completion percentage of 77% last game so hopefully they won’t need to run the ball much. I think the real reason for my essay was that Hawai’i has a really good punter-he was named to the Ray Guy Award watch list last year and played Australian Rules Football and Cricket during high school in Melbourne. The Hawai’i place kicker is also Australian and was a high school soccer star. Good stuff. He has had 3 tackles this year as a kicker so he may be the last hope for Hawai’i’s bad defense.
Penn State +18… OSU has Michigan next week
Cowboys +6……….Lavar Arrington Special
Jets +2.5 …………..Gut Pick
Ravens -3 …………..Lamar on Fire
Gbay +3……SF BANGED UP, GBAY OFF A BYE
Essay Tenn Titans -3
Jags Run D is bad. Derrick Henry is a local from Yulee. Henry will run Mad and aggressive. Jaguars are a shell of themselves. Bad Coaching, Bad Front Office…No Oline. Tenn has a good oline…Tenn wants to Avenge their week 3 loss. Simply think the Jaguars suck, will blow up the whole staff in the offseason, and rebuild. Lil Secret- A multiple losing streak is looming. Keep an eye and bet against Jags every week from here on out. Tenn 26-7
toledo
kent state, purdue, lions, niners, bengals. lions essay to follow.
this lions pick is a carry over from last week’s essay, that is, a vote against dwayne haskins. i failed to account for gregg williams’ scheming to keep the athletic haskins off balance last week, but he did and as a result haskins was sacked six times. pff rated the skins’ o-line all green for pass protect. haskins rated out considerably worse when NOT blitzed. of his 19 pass attempts, 14 were less than ten yards over the middle. so haskins cant read defenses and is relegated to simple checkdowns in a remedial offense.
whatever your opinion of matt patricia, he was belichick’s DC for a couple years. he has these stats. he has williams’ template on how to attack this qb. crazy injuries for the lions but they still played the cowboys hard last week and dont show any signs of quit on their coach. vegas made skins a +2.5 home dog last week vs one win afc jets and it was 35-3 in the 4q. now they’re +3.5 home dog vs three win nfc lions. yeah not enough. with tickets to the game available for $12 even the skins’ sometimes significant home field advantage is nullified.
I’m reading Akron is 0-10 against the spread? Is this unprecedented? on general principle, i’ll take Akron for 1 point please.
Haha I believe the Zips in Rob Ianello’s last year were either winless against the spread or very close to it. I also want to say that Alabama was undefeated against the spread a few years back as well, at least through the regular season.
Colorado State plus7
Browns essay tomorrow
Golden Gophers
Packers
Penn State
aside from Nick Chubb, who is my favorite running back to watch since Jamal Lewis and my favorite Brown since Joe Jurevicious, this has been a miserable season. what an unlikeable group from the front office to the coaches and definitely the players. the wheels are moat definitely going to fall off, but I am betting its next week in Pittsburgh and not today. they got the head coach choice wrong, its obvious to anyone that has watched this team. it feels like we are destined to two mediocre Baker years, one really good one, and then him saying he doesn’t want to be here anymore. i think they win today against a team that at the end of the day is not trying to win games. but i’m kind of looking forward to the Ducky qb guy ending the season next week.
Miami of OH -31.5
Browns -11
Steelers -6.5
Bears -6.5
Broncos +4
Packers +3 (AP and essay)
Packers essay – I lost my first essay because it didn’t stick, so here goes another version. Both teams are hanging onto top seed by a thread. Shanahan and LaFleur are serious contenders for Coach of the Year. GB has a slight edge coming off the bye and are healthy. Aaron said they need to beat the Niners at some point – now or in the playoffs. Now is better. Last trip to Cali didn’t go so great for the Pack vs the Chargers so adjustments made. Californians are out there and it’s time to bring the Niners back to earth. I live about 30 min from Lambeau and it’s nuts around here all the time. People wear jerseys all year, every day. The entire state is pretty much a sports bar, with big screens in the grocery stores and loudspeakers blaring out the broadcasts in parking lots. It’s real and it’s deep.
1. Emu ..sucker for maction.
1. EMU ..sucker for the maction
2. Buccaneers
3. Buckeyes
4. Ball St
5. AP Packers
6. Essay: Indiana
Not sure why Indiana continues to get some many points every week. I was scared to take them last week bc the line seemed so obvious and then they cover. I’m not going to let another cover pass me by. Under Harbaugh Michigan isn’t very good at covering the week before tOSU game. I think Indiana will not only cover but pull off the upset of a top 25 team… At home and Senior day.. think they get done in one of their biggest games of the year. They have no quit and I look for them to keep punching Michigan in the mouth drive after drive
1. Eastern Michigan +5
2. Wyoming -7
3. Niners -3
4. Titans -3
5. Browns -11
6. Broncos +4 (essay):
This was the first point spread that jumped out at me on Monday morning. Buffalo has faced the easiest schedule in the NFL so far this season and have zero good wins outside of beating the Titans when Tennessee missed four FGs. Denver is the best bad team in the NFL this season. Their defense has been excellent all year and ranks 6th best against the run and 15th against the pass. Their defense ranks 9th overall in DVOA ratings. The good news is this Denver team continues to play very hard and I expect the same in Buffalo. The Broncos 3-7 record is totally deceiving as they have a -25-point differential and have lost 5 games by one score. They have lost 4 games by 4 points or less. In fact, Football Outsiders has Denver as the 18th ranked team and Buffalo 25th. These teams are not even, Denver is better. Getting this line over 3 is great value. The Broncos best weapon is their run game and bring in the 10th best rush offense in the NFL. With Philip Lindsay gaining traction as the lead RB, I expect him to have a really good day against the 27th ranked rush defense in Buffalo.
1 point: Ohio -20.5
1 Miami Ohio
Turned in by email this morning
Niners
Wvu 1 point
Temple 1 point
Kent State
The Flashes are excited to be playing football as evidenced by their wild comeback last week. That matters in these games when it’s cold and windy and 300 are on hand. I know Dustin Fox and Reghi will be dressed nicely and I know the Flashes will be motivated. That matters, and I think they win a close and wild game. Fight on Flashes.