Home » Cheddar Bay Archives » CB Playoff Wk 3

CB Playoff Wk 3

We’ll post the picks and essays in this post 24 hours before kickoff.

Cheddar playoff people: keep your game faces on. Pick are due by 3pm Saturday. Essay worth 15 points; alternate worth ten = 25 points total. I’ll have the lines locked in tomorrow. Lines are:

Niners -5 at Falcons;
Ravens +9 at Pats.

And we thank you for your support.


Here’s the link to the picks.

[and because i can’t make my own code work here…]
Here is a screencap from Frowns of the pick distribution.

CLTIL, JeffRich, and ChuckKoz (essay) riding alone with the Niners.

week 3 pick distro

week 3 pick distro


  1. […] this round, the input from the 11 remaining Cheddar Bay participants won’t be of much use, which is fine. Due to the point spreads for our reality football […]

  2. jimkanicki says:


    *** Atlanta essay +5
    ne -9…

    Essay has to come later I’m on the slopes

    Slick’s essay (timestamped 3:33pm)
    This pick comes down to 1 thing…5 points at home for a number 1 seed is insane. All I have heard all week is about the niners pass rush, their strong defense, kaepernick playing such smart and unguardable football, harbaugh outsmarting everyone…I don’t care

    5 points at home is too many points. 5 points is too many points at home, end of story. I’ll say it again, Matt Ryan has all the weapons anyone needs and is better than anyone not named Brady inside of 2 minutes. People also forget this Falcons D is an underrated unit, and don’t give up a ton of points. No matter how I look at this it’s a close game, and if they wouldn’t have taken naps at halftime last week, I’d still have a shot at this thing. Everyone’s talking about how great the 9ers are after beating a packer team that has no o-line, and holes all over the defense. Falcons have less holes and win their usual way at home. Matty Ice starting to make a post season name for himself getting to the Super Bowl!

  3. jimkanicki says:


    Patriots – 9 vs. Ravens (ESSAY)

    I’m concerned about the 9 points with Flacco the mad bomber at the helm, but if this game goes how I think it will, Pats will be able to stave off any chance of any funny business. NE has the running game now to balance it’s O, and will be less susceptible to the deep ball now that Talib joined the squad. Brady proved last week he can make things go even without GRONK, so I’m living or dying by the chalk here. Belichick needs that ring this year, and I can’t really articulate how much that plays into this pick — I will say that after watching the Ravens/Broncos tape, Bill isn’t going to let up at all.

    Falcons +5 vs. 49ers

    I’ve been reading a lot about how much trouble the Falcons defense had with Cam Newton all year, and that dual-threat vulnerability is firmly in play here; I don’t think the front 7 of Atlanta can match up, especially with that SF O-Line. Still, Falcons are home dogs, still upset about getting downplayed even as the 1 seed, and they have the skill position players to keep them in it, even if for a backdoor cover situation. I still like 49ers to win, but I think 5 is too many points. Bonus prediction: Tony Gonzalez scores twice and we get at least one career-retrospective montage.

  4. jimkanicki says:


    Patriots -9
    ***49ers -5

    The first and most important thing is that I watched Atlanta intently last weekend (they were my essay pick, missing the cover by 1 point and being the reason I am not in first place). I walked away thinking they had no chance, and that was before San Francisco looked so impressive against GB. In that game last week, ATL did what I expected and came up super pumped with a lot to prove. They showed a nice running game, which has been missing all year and the defense did a pretty good job in stopping the read-option QB for the first time this season. But it seems that was all a mirage, solely provided by crowd support, because the second half was a disaster with Wilson getting anything he wanted and the run game drying up. Yet, they somehow pulled out the win, which is great because it makes for an easy essay pick.

    As I see it, everything that helped ATL pull out last week (but still not cover) is not there this week. That emotional desperation to win just one fricking game is gone, since they won last week. SF’s run defense is a step above Seattle’s, so look for 100 yards gained. And whatever temporary fix they had for that read-option seems to have disappeared, so Kaepernick should run wild. All adds up to a beatdown for the 49ers.

  5. jimkanicki says:


    Niners (-5) at Falcons

    Problems with the Falcons are easy to see, but there’s something about this team, when compared to Harbaugh’s team that just doesn’t feel right. Niners D plays big here, goes to first Super Bowl w/o a Hall of Fame QB.

    ***Ravens (+9) at Patriots***

    It’s my worst nightmare coming true, but not really. I’m playing the cover because of Ray Rice, because of Joe Flacco, because of Anquan Boldin. Baltimore is never out of many games because you can count on their playmakers to keep things close. I mean, hey, if you can run with Petyon Manning for 5+ quarters, what’s to stop you from going even keel with Belichick and Brady for 4?

    New England has “it”, but “it” is all about winning games, not winning them by double digits. If Brady stays upright, the chip Kelly aspect comes into play, working the TEs against a quietly weak Ravens LB corps, making a not-special back like Vereen a gamebreaker, and just pissing general excellence on the football field.

    I really think it comes down to Gostowski, not Mallett auditioning for other teams in mop-up time. Not ruling out the straight up upset here, but I’m not seeing the boat-race that the number dictates here.

  6. jimkanicki says:


    Falcons +5 (essay)
    Ravens +9

    I would be lying if I said I was confident in this Falcons pick, but I am going to go with history on this one. My understanding is that there have only been 4 times in a champ game where the home team was the dog, and in all 4 cases the home team not only covered, they won. I have never really enjoyed watching the Falcons, but with Julio, Roddy and Tony G, they should be able to move the ball and spread things out a little. I am thinking last week’s game may have been an “over the hump” type situation for them. They should have some confidence coming in here, and they also better have a chip on their shoulder since they are a home dog. I like watching Kaep, but going on the road against a D that is much better than the Pack could be tough for him. In the end, 5 points is just too much for me to turn down.

  7. jimkanicki says:

    Dennis Hemingway

    WEEK 21 – Playoffs

    Ravens +9 over Pats
    *** Falcons +5 over Niners ***

    *** There continues to be no respect for the Falcons and the public is in love with the Niners. Last week most people thought that Seattle’s defense was too good and Atlanta would struggle to score. In reality they controlled nearly the entire game, scored on 5 possessions to take a commanding lead, and if their defense didn’t go into prevent mode starting in the 3rd quarter when they were winning 27-7, the Falcons would have blown out the Hawks. Meanwhile the Niners looked like world beaters and the Packers atrocious defense made Kapernick look like the best QB ever. While I think Kapernick is a good and a dangerous duel threat, Russell Wilson plays a similar style game and the Falcons were able to shut him down most of the game. Vegas knows that the Niners were going to be a huge public play this weekend and even though they originally set the line at 3, they have kept bumping it up to attract as much Falcons action as possible. This game in the public eye is only going one way and that is with the Niners. I’m taking a good team playing at home after gaining confidence with their first playoff win in a long time and expect them to be focused and ready with another good game plan. Cheers to the Falcons.

  8. jimkanicki says:


    Niners -5 Falcons
    ***Ravens +9 Pats

    As much as I would love to see Harbaugh on Harbaugh action at the Superbowl, I do believe NE will probably win this game, but it won’t be easy. The Ravens arguably should have won last year’s AFC championship game to advance to the SB. They have been waiting all year for this rematch. Flacco is playing up to his potential (free agency) and the Pats secondary is no match for the likes of Anquan Boldin in playoff time.

    Of course, the key to anyone besting the Pats is to neutralize Brady. His incredible ability to find the right hands at precisely the right moment diminishes with each fraction of a second that the defense takes from him. Enter Baltimore’s new DC Dean Pees, fresh from NE, where he observed and challenged Tom Brady for years at practice. He knows Brady’s vulnerabilities as well as anyone, firsthand. You can bet Ray and the boys have thought of nothing else this week. They’ll be prepared, but with a lot of miles on some of those bodies, staying with the fast paced Pats for 60 minutes will be too much in the end.

  9. jimkanicki says:


    *** Ravens

    Well here i am.i kind of expected to have a chance but didnt think that i would win. I guess i can put these picks in loosely just like my teams should play…..loosely. My esday pick …the ravens….have a lot of intangibles in their favor that should hrlp them keep this close. The ravens seem to rise up against the pats. When in doubt take the points. I cant really give you any hard facts on why the ravens will cover except thar i am having an exceptional week in Oahu and my mind is clear except for the biki rips that we have done.Its just too many points for a pro fooyball team to be getting.

    I absolutely am in love with the niners as im sure most everybody ahead of me in the contest is. Thst is why i feel forced to take the falcons plus five. Falcons play freely and cover and i make up enough ground to move into third place this week which is my goal putting the bottle of M.M. within reach.

    Note that franklins plays were written slightly ripped and pretty bombed and are subject to change if it snows in boston sunday.

  10. jimkanicki says:


    Atlanta (+5) over San Francisco

    Have to stay consistent here. Atlanta is going to the Super Bowl. I have rode them for far too long because I think they are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL. Short of winning the whole damn thing there seems to be this narrative that has been written that they are a failure. The Falcons dominated the Seahawks for three quarters then had one of the all time great 4th quarter collapses only to steal the win back. There are very few teams that would have had the ability to pull it together, make two plays, kick the FG, and steal the game back. Matt Ryan did that Sunday. One home game for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. This has OT or all time classic written all over it. Ask yourself this, which kicker do you trust more in the dying seconds on Sunday and why the hell are the Falcons getting 5 points?

    Essay Pick

    It’s that time of year when I have to get something off my chest again as the national media continues to ignore a basic fact.

    The Baltimore Ravens fired Bill Belichick. They fired him on February 15, 1996. These are facts.

    I brought this up to a co-worker whose immediate response was to remind me that they hired Billick and won the Super Bowl. He is half right. He forgets the part where the Ravens hired Ted Marchibroda for the first three years. That’s right. The Ravens fired Belichick to hire Ted Marchibroda for three years. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard since firing Mangini for Shurmur. The Baltimore Ravens fired Bill Belichick. Remember this Sunday. I know that Bill remembers.

    It’s been a nice run for the Ravens this playoffs finding a way to get by the Colts and then beating Denver. The history of these games scream that this is going to be a close game. I think we have finally reached the point where the teams are not level anymore. The Patriots have everything going for them (minus Gronk) and I guarantee you they are ecstatic to not be going to Denver this Sunday. Championship Sunday tends to give us one classic and one dud. I’ll take the Pats big on Sunday.

    *** New England (-9) over Baltimore

  11. jimkanicki says:


    Falcon +5 vs the 49ers (essay): I just can’t give up 5 pts to a home dog and have any confidence that the road team is going to cover. Now add in the fact that the road team is traveling across the country and playing in a dome…no chance. Listen I know Kaep looked like a God last week but that’s because Green Bay can’t tackle. I think he’s going to have a hard time communicating in that dome environment and we’ll see similar results as we did in Seattle when the 49er’s got destroyed in a loud environment with a similar style defense. I think the Falcons are again under rated because they played not to lose in the 2nd half and really that strategy is playing not to win. I don’t think ATL ever builds that kinda of lead and keeps the pedal to the metal the entire game. SF has no answer for Julio, Tony and Roddy, and Michael Turner looked reborn last week. As long as ATL can keep it close and keep that defense honest with the run I see ATL winning this game. Atlanta 27-24

    Ravens +9 vs New England: This is a ravens team that always plays NE tough. Last year Baltimore should have won this game but lost because of a dropped pass. I think Flacco is proving with the weapons he has in Boldin, Rice, and Torrey Smith he can put points on the board. Bottom line in this game is 9 pts is just too many especially in a championship game. Hell Houston came damn close to a back door cover last week and they blow. This is a ravens team playing for their leader and has the ability to make big plays. Everyone pans this defense but they shut down Peyton Manning who still couldn’t beat them with two special team TD’s. Sorry to say it guys but the curse of the Wahoo continues and we’ll be watching our Browns in the superbowl in 2 weeks. Raven 31 -28

  12. jimkanicki says:


    Falcons +5 vs 49ers (essay)

    Motivation is lacking this week, with Frowns doing God’s work in the salt mine, it has motivated me to get back to work, and stop trolling the browns blogs for news. I am liking the CHUD hire, and the direction Haslem is taking this team.

    Anyways, the Falcons were able to breath a huge sigh of relief this week because of their win over Seattle last weekend, even if they tried to blow it in the 4th. Why did Matt Ryan throw a deep sideline pass into double coverage with 10 minutes to go? I think the home field advantage plays in their favor and Kaepernick won’t be as effective.

    Sorry for mailing in this essay, I do not like the Harbaughs, so I’m picking against them this week.

    Pats -9 vs Ravens

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