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Wk 11 — LSU +6.5 at Bama

2019wk11

607361708.jpg.0No brainer all-play this week with 2014’s Mr. Ohio on his long march to win a NCAA Championship though not with his home state Buckeyes.  Imagine sitting two years behind perpetually hyped but ultimately average JT Barrett only to be told you will also sit behind likewise hyped and average Dwayne Haskins.  I would’ve snapped for sure but Burrow sucked it up and competed and won the starting job at LSU.  All the credit to Burrow and not enough great things can happen for him.  (Oh wait, did I reveal my all-play lean?  Dang.)

WEEKLY PAYOUTS START THIS WEEK.  Based on our receipts, I am locking the weeklies at $90.

Lines linked above.  Form linked in menu above or here.


Kent St +7 at Toledo

Ball St +6.5 at WMU


82 Comments

  1. ckozelka says:

    Panthers +5
    Ravens -10
    Titans +6
    Colts -10.5
    
AP: LSU +6.5 – WIN
    Essay: Browns -3
    Stunned at this line. Should be closer to a pick. and this all the signs of the true end of any hope for the browns, especially where Josh Allen can one up Baker and add to the regret and doubt of the John Dorsey era. But we can’t have all bee THAT delusional about the hopes this year. Fact is, Browns are now officially underrated, as they are going to likely finish with at least 7 wins. They have had a crazy hard schedule and a shitty coach. But they still have top flight talent and at some point that has to win out some of the time. And I presume Freddie is working hard and will get better (i mean, super low bar set, so i am right there). And Bills are average at best in run defense…..and we have Nick Motherfucking Chubb.

  2. Week 10:

    Ohio -7 (L)
    Chargers -1 (L)
    LSU 6.5 (W)
    Bucs -4.5
    Cowboys -3

    Essay: Bears -2.5

    For what it’s worth, I had this locked in as my essay before the Stafford news came down. But, this is a comfortable spot for the struggling Bears’ offense, as the Lions have siphoned huge chunk plays in both the passing and run games. Even with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm, this is a spot the Bears and their still solid defense should roll.

  3. mattborcas says:

    Lions, Browns

  4. oxr says:

    All-Play LSU +6.5 over Alabama

    • oxr says:

      Dolphins +10.5 over Colts
      Panthers +5 over Packers
      Chiefs -6 over Titans
      Ravens -10 over Bengals

      Essay Bears -2.5 over Lions — Historically an extremely cursed matchup but it’s a little late for me to be superstitious; besides, last week I was once again calamitously wrong about the Lions so it’s time to overcorrect again. Stafford’s injury is the main point of interest here, of course; if he was healthy then by rights they’d be favored against a moribund Chicago team coming off four straight losses. But now Jeff Driskel is unexpectedly starting against what is still the #8 defense by DVOA. I am not high on Jeff Driskel. This is not to say I think Trubisky is going to suddenly turn into Joe Montana but if the Bears can’t sort it out at home, coming off a bye week, against (did I mention?) Jeff Driskel and a generally unimpressive Detroit defense, then they might as well blow the team up again.

  5. thatsfine503 says:

    Virginia Tech +2.5
    Alabama -6.5

    • thatsfine503 says:

      Uconn +35

      • thatsfine503 says:

        Wyoming +13   

        Let’s essay the Cowboys on the road. Starting QB Sean Chambers is out, but his replacement started 9 games last year. He’s a step down talent-wise but has experience, probably isn’t getting enough credit here. They’ll obviously be running the ball, and that would have been the plan with the starter as well. The Cowboys average 239 rushing yards per game, 14th in FBS. In the past 4 games Boise has given up 38, 37, 28, and 42 points to lesser competition. Wyoming should be able to slow the game down and make it ugly when they have the ball. The Cowboy defense is holding opponents to 17.6 points per game, they won’t keep the Broncos under that but they’ll cover the spread.

  6. cheddar late line:
    chiefs -6 at titans.

  7. lsu
    charlotte -13.5 at utep for the essay. to cover two tds you need a decent offense and a shitty defense. the shitty defense is def in play: utep has only allowed less than 30 points one time this year (26 vs utsa). as for charlotte’s offense, theyve been in the 30s with two wins against two respectable cusa opponents last two weeks (unt and mtsu). admittedly those games were at home and the 49ers are winless on the road this year. however the sun bowl does not provide much in the way of home field advantage in terms weather, its a home field disadvantage in terms of attendance, and i dont think the altitude (3800′) should be insurmountable. charlotte has a rare opp for a bowl appearance, theyre riding a wave of confidence, and i think theyll take the chance to flex on a weak opponent.
    speaking of flexing, also gimme uga -17 vs mizzou and clemson -32.5 at ncst.

    • hate to do it; hate to bet against my team but:
      the 6-2 team a 3 pt dog to the 2-6 team. i’ll take the free money monte! especially in light of this week’s leaked story (first to theobr and this morning to jason lacanfora) that analytics wanted stefanski but haslam wanted kitchens. the leak is calculated to cover dorsey’s ass. dorsey ass-covering is a precursor to dorsey shit-canning his coach. also a means to either save his cleveland gig or position himself for the next one. also means he knows kitchens has lost the locker room and may well lose out. in any event, take the free money with the bills today.
      i’ll also continue my ride with the panthers.

      tldr: bills and panthers.

  8. AmplifiedEsq says:

    I accidentally hijacked someone else’s thread with my pick set so placing another here to not have that individual get constant reply emails if they’ve checked that off. Mobile is not being friendly to be right now. Sorry Josh Rossie.

    All Play: LSU +6.5

    • AmplifiedEsq says:

      1. Rams -3.5
      2. Ravens -10
      3. Bears -2.5
      4. Packers -5
      5. All-Play: LSU +6.5
      6. Essay: Chiefs -6

      Essay: Chiefs -6

      Surely Mahomes isn’t coming back early and risking additional injury to play the Titans. If he’s back, he’s healthy and a full go. That means I should be able to count on a few deep bombs to a guy that belongs in a jail instead of being on a football field; a more efficient running game with Moore not in the game; and Mahomes to make a couple of plays all on his own. Even if Andy Reid goes conservative to protect his QB, it’ll probably be done in a way that manages to gives their play makers the ball in open space – and those guys are better than the Titans’ defenders. They’ll make things happen given the chance and as of the past couple year’s they often get that chance. Take into account the Chiefs defense, which through the first 5 games was one of the worst in the NFL, appears to be coming around (one of the best looking at their last 3 games; two of which against playoff contenders) it may be a long day for the Titans who have been less offensively challenged with Tannehill at QB as opposed to Mariotta, but still not spectacular. In the end, the Chiefs offense will be too much for the Titans to keep up with and the Chiefs defense will keep their momentum going in a victory today.

  9. Elizabeth Schultz says:

    SMU -21
    App St +5 (essay – to follow)
    Alabama -6.5
    Oklahoma -14
    hometeam

    • Elizabeth Schultz says:

      test

      • Elizabeth Schultz says:

        The sentimental pick So Carolina v the smart pick. So Carolina (4-5) enter today w momentum from their big win last week over Vanderbilt. How can you not root for the freshman Hillinski? Did you see 30 for 30? The kid is genetically built to win at football. But App State (7-1) was spanked last week. This game is their reclamation. Prior to last week’s loss QB Zac Thomas averaged 240 yards rush/game. Pair that w RB Darrynton Evans the run game is solid. The offense has three top receivers (Sutton, Williams & Hennigan) so it’s a balanced squad. So Carolina’s defense can and has held opponents to under 20 points. This is the kernel for the match-up. Because App State has had (save last week) little trouble scoring this season – give me App State +5

        also
        Colts -10.5
        Cowboys -3
        hometeam

  10. Minny +7 vs PSU
    Illinois +14.5 vs MSU
    LSU +6.5 vs Alabama
    ND -8 vs Duke

    • Browns -3 vs Bills
      Chiefs -6 at Titans
      Trying to take the easy way out here and will grab the late NFL line. Kansas City Chiefs had a big victory over the Vikings last week so Andy Reid has this team playing well. The Titans are averaging almost a TD better with Tannihill compared to Mariota, so they are feeling OK and they are more desperate for a win at home. Problem is KC has been great on the road. Reports are unclear but it feels like Mahomes plays. Don’t foresee a knee brace bothering him. With Tennessee’s secondary banged up, this game might get away from the Titans quickly. Titans don’t have Casey playing and he’s an impact player on defense. Very hard to see how they stop the trio of Hill, Kelce, and Watkins.

  11. mattborcas says:

    LSU, Minnesota, and Baylor today.

  12. Harbaugh handshakes. says:

    LSU +6.5
    Browns -3
    Jets -2.5
    Falcons +13
    Beats -2.5
    49ers -6

    I’m taking the browns because everyone seems to be losing their mind about the browns being favored. TA has had some great tweets about why this is actually a favorable matchup especially for Chubb and how the bulls have played a ridiculously weak schedule and the browns as we all know have played a crazy tough schedule. Maybe it’s for the best the browns didn’t get out to a 6-2 start. And Freddie got exposed but it’d be nice to get one at home. Here’s hoping Freddie coaches with a shred of competence.

    • mattborcas says:

      Essay: 49ers -6 over Seahawks

      After picking up some gimme wins against the dregs of the NFC South, shit is about to get real for the Seahawks, with six of their seven remaining opponents boasting winning records and a whopping four night games in a row. And unless you think Seattle is capable of finishing at 13-3, a win tonight would all but lock up the NFC West for the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan is a genuine schematic wizard (remember when he made Brian Hoyer look like a top-20 NFL quarterback for two months in 2014?), and he’s had 11 days to prepare for tonight’s matchup. The 49ers have proven themselves a threat to dominate just about any team in the NFL, and the Seahawks should be no exception to that. They’re a soft 7-2, with a number of close wins over below average teams, and Josh Gordon has been a nonfactor since 2013, so it’s safe to say that I’m not expecting him to come in and add a new dimension to Seattle’s passing attack. What I *am* expecting is Nick Bosa to continue to terrorize opposing QBs, enough so that the Seahawks won’t come close to covering tonight.

  13. Brian Whalen (Bnasty99) says:

    Illinois +14.5 Illinois has been tough on D and Mich St has been bad on O. Idk if either team scores 14 in this game
    Georgia -17 Missouri is 0-3 losing by an average of 11 points/game on the road and Kelly Bryant isn’t 100%
    Clemson -32.5 NC State is awful. 3rd string QB playing, might not score against Clemson
    Ravens -10 purely because it’s Ryan Findley’s first game.

    AP: LSU +6.5 something tells me to take Alabama, but I’m hoping to see someone else win, so I’m taking LSU

    ***Essay***

    Notre Dame -8

    Duke is turning the ball over at an alarming rate over the past few weeks. The last drive for Ian Book last week looked inspiring and I’m hoping it carries him into this week. Notre Dame doesn’t have much to play for anymore, besides the music city bowl or possibly my favorite bowl game, The San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, but I think just talent alone will create bad matchups and lead to a double digit win here. Duke has struggled against any type of talent this year with their best win coming against middle Tennessee state. So I’ll take my Irish here again and hope they pull away for a big win.

  14. Katie M. says:

    Mostly just here to post my picks for others to double-check if they also have any of these picks so they can then make a different selection. It’s a skill to be as bad at making team selections as I have.

    AP: LSU +6.5 vs. Alabama
    Boston College -1.5 vs. Florida State
    Kansas State +7 vs. Texas
    Wisconsin -9.5 vs. Iowa

    • Katie M. says:

      Bears -2.5
      49ers -6 – **Essay to follow**

      • Katie M. says:

        Who doesn’t love a good rivalry game? I find professional football rivalries to be less tasteful than college, but still savory, nonetheless. Pete got the Seahawks a ring in 2013 and Harbaugh left a year later to see if college football would be kinder to him. Maybe all that the Niners needed was a new coach and a different quarterback. Isn’t that all most of our teams need? The 49ers are banged up enough on defense that they’re going to have to do new things, and I actually like a new look this late in the season – makes it harder for the other team to prepare. How is the Seahawks run defense? Carson will let us know later tonight.
        Happy Veteran’s Day! Can’t see how much government subsidized money will be blown under the guise fo Veteran’s Day before, during, and after the game tonight.

  15. Essay: Browns – Pretty much lean Titans and Browns every week. I’m actually not sure about this one, but have to do it. Tons of negative press, that mustache fiasco, and 2-6 vs 6-2 with 2-6 favored. It’s usually an auto slam but I am concerned we still have the vestiges of “Browns are supposed to be good” and “Bills are always bad”. That may set this up as some sort of sharp trap. I guess I will take the bait and go with the Clowns as my essay but I do have some reservations with this one.

  16. cleinmsp says:

    Illinois +14.5
    Iowa +9.5
    LSU +6.5 (All Play)

    • cleinmsp says:

      Bears -2.5
      Packers -5
      49ers -6 (Essay)

      As a Browns fan, I am jealous watching the 49ers play football. They are a “tough” team that plays that just dismantles the opponent up front. Shanny is obviously a great offensive mind, and does an awesome job of putting his players in a position to succeed. I feel you kind of know what is coming, but the way he uses misdirection frees people up. They seem to be doing all the “little” things right on both sides of the ball. I have no idea who their D-coordinator is, but that guy is all animated and has his unit really playing as a team. A lot has been made of their front 4, but man that secondary is tough, too. On the other side of the ball, you have Seattle who doesn’t really impress me. Russ is AMAZING (we all know that), but it sure feels like they’ve been a bit lucky to scratch out some games they could have easily lost. Biggest 49ers home game in years and they’ve had 10 full days to prepare. I think they win by double digits.

  17. FHCF says:

    LSU
    TCU +2
    So Miss -4.5
    Georgia -17
    SDSU -17

    Atlanta Falcons +13
    Gosh, I hate that pick. Awful team with a coach on the hot seat. But I think at this stage of the NFL season, in a division game, that I’m taking the 13. I think I have to. Just feels there are a dozen ways they could accidentally cover. The defense is a wreck and the offense has stunk, too, but Matt Ryan is experienced in racking up garbage yards and points in the fourth quarter of a beatdown and I’m going to ride that experience this week. The Saints might win it all. They do not need their A-game here. 

  18. LittleBallofHate says:

    One biscuit: OSU (-42), Stanford (-3.5), Miami (-6.5), Packers (-5)
    All Play: LSU (+6.5)
    Essay: Lions (+2.5). Going to use my one week waive since none of the games enthuse me and I have writers block.

  19. Jason says:

    I’ve missed 4 straight essay picks so I’m not feeling great here but let’s give this a shot…

    LSU +6.5 (AP)
    TCU +2
    UK +1
    49ers -6
    Bengals +10

    Essay: Panthers +5
    Once again I’m here fading the Packers. The lines for them have made no sense all year. Favorites at home to Lions by 2.5, Raiders by 5, and now Panthers by 5. Are the Lions better than the Panthers? Raiders were still the right side. I haven’t hit an essay in 4 weeks and I’m grasping at straws at this point to keep this season alive. McCafferty goes bonkers in Green Bay vs. their shitty run defense. Panthers outright 26-24. Let’s get back on the winning track!

    • Moonman says:

      Alabama -6

      The rest to come later.

      • Moonman says:

        *Alabama -6.5

        • Moonman says:

          Full card:

          Ravens -10
          Colts -10.5
          Niners -6
          Cowboys -3
          AP: Alabama -6.5
          Essay: Rams -3.5

          The Rams are coming into this game after having the much needed bye week to get healthy and properly integrate Ramsey. Wade Phillips and the Rams defense must be licking their chops knowing they’ll be going up against young garbage QB trying to get his team over the .500 mark.

          The Rams have underperformed this year according to what I think their preseason goals were. The opposite can be said for the Steelers. The Steelers started out 0-3 and lost their starting super bowl winning lil dough boy, BB. They are now at .500, and probably are feeling pretty good about themselves. I think the rams will be the more motivated team going into this game. The rams know they have to win games in their competitive division and I think McVay has the boys all fired up for this one.

    • Josh Rossie says:

      Super busy so not sure exact lines but here are my picks and guesses of lines

      Hawaii -8
      PSU -6
      Cle -3
      Ravens -10
      LSU +6.5 (ALL PLAY)
      ESSAY:
      Seattle +6.5
      Give me Russel W and the points. Jimmy GQ and Company are due a loss, much like my last 3 weeks of picks…Losers…

  20. LSU +6.5
    UMass +34.5
    Baylor -2
    Virginia Tech +2.5 (Essay)
    Cardinals +4.5
    Colts -10.5

    Last week was the much-needed essay skip week. So this week I should be well-rested and ready to run the table. Virginia Tech has been performing well lately, and gave Notre Dame a scare last week. Wake has been racking up impressive numbers against mediocre opposition, while VT has been holding their own. I don’t see VT losing (or more importantly, failing to cover), to a comparable opponent at home when last time out they took a ranked team to the brink on the road.

    Note to Mike – I hit my POTY on Penn St in mid-Oct. Somehow my ill-advised essay pick on Buffalo a couple of weeks back got tagged as a POTY. Any chance my POTY column can get corrected? Point tally is correct. Thanks!

  21. teddycuddles says:

    Iowa St +14
    Saints -13
    Ravens -10
    Seahawks +6
    AP: Alabama -6.5

    Essay & POY: Penn St -7

    This seems like a trap, but it’s just too juicy…are the Goofers actually good? As a Badger alum it’s hard to wrap my brain around, but as a born and bred Minnesotan it’s simply not possible…at least not in this universe. For 39 years, I have watched the the Goofers bungle important game after important game and season after season. They haven’t won a Big Ten title since 1967 and I don’t expect they will any time soon. Maybe not coincidentally, yesterday marked the 20 year anniversary of arguably the Gophers biggest win in the last 50 years when the they shocked #2 Penn St on Dan Nystrom’s last second FG. I suspect it will remain their biggest win of the last 50 years as well. Fleck’s agent deserves a huge round of applause for convincing the desperate U of M Board of Regents (and the rest of the state of MN for that matter) that he should get a 7 year contract extension and a huge grip of cash before beating a team with a winning record this year. On top of that, MN Governor Tim Walz proclaimed today, Friday, Nov 8, 2019 “Maroon and Gold Friday” in Minnesota. I’m not kidding. Here’s a link to an article that has a PDF of the signed proclamation. I encourage everyone to read it. Someone should remind Gov. Walz that they still need to play the game.

    https://gophersports.com/news/2019/11/6/football-governor-proclaims-nov-8-maroon-and-gold-friday.aspx

    Isn’t that cute? I get it though, I’m a Minnesota sports fan (save for the Goofers), so I know what that sweet, sweet taste of “hope” is only to have it ripped from what become your cold, dead, rigor mortis hands. It sucks the soul right out of you. Anyway, earlier this year I told a fellow ChedHead that I would 100% pick against the Goofers at some point this year for my POY, so here it is. I’m not convinced the Goofers are a good football team. They lose tomorrow, then again next week to Iowa and finally two weeks later at home in the last game of the season vs. the Badgers with the Big10 West title on the line…bungling yet another important game and their season as well. SKOL!

    • Moonman says:

      Nice write up. I’m not a big college football bettor but I was looking to tail something today. I found it. A Wisconsin alum from Minnesota has to have his finger on the pulse of the gophers, and it’s you POTY.

      Good luck to us.

  22. 1. Lions +2.5 @ Bears
    2. Boise St. -13 v. Wyoming
    3. Air Force -21 @ New Mexico
    4. Penn St. -7 @ Minnesota
    AP: LSU +6.5 @ Alabama
    Essay: POTY! Cleveland’s Browns -3 v. Bills

    Talk about your all time backfires. I’m not sure it was possible to be further away from a W last week. So I’m going crazy this week…

    It’s must win time in the CLE. It’s Brownsbills Day and I’m making this my PLAY OF THE YEAR!!!

    Browns are in must win spot. The rookie head coach is embattled only 8 games into his career. The superstar reciever is putting up career worst stats. The savior QB is the worst QB in football and looks like Randy Marsh. And last week’s starting safety is unemployed because he was sending death threats over Twitter before he even took off his shoulder pads. December in Berea is like no place else.

    So what do we have here? The 2-6 Browns are favored against the 6-2 Bills?!? This is Vegas beggin the public to load up on Buffalo. It’s a decent matchup for the Browns as the Bills give up big plays on the ground and the Browns have Nick Chubb. While there is the risk that the Browns browns it up. Or the officials continue thier reign of incompetence. Or Freddie continues to drown, I really belive the Browns get a big win here and try to carry some momentum into Thursday night.

    If you’re around, everyone’s invited to the Cheddary tailgate with the North Port Kennel. It’s Buffalo wings on Sunday and Thursday night, it’s the world famous deep fried tailgate.

  23. Elder B says:

    Boston College -1.5 vs. FSU
    Northwestern -2.5 vs. Purdue
    Penn State -7 @ Minnesota
    Chi Bears -2.5 vs. Lions
    AP LSU +6.5 @ Bama

    ***Essay – Baylor -2 @ TCU***
    Momentum pick this week. I don’t know much about either team except Baylor is on an upward trajectory from the good football, rapist days, transition years to Matt Rhule and year over year growth in the W column. I don’t think they’ve played a difficult schedule and the Big 12 doesn’t look particularly strong however they’re winning, a lot. TCU on the other hand seems to be a bit of a cluster-f*** which I haven’t seen from the Gary Patterson organization. In two weeks they managed to injure a quarterback and have two throw up the deuces and enter the transfer portal. TCUs defense, typically a strength, has given up a lot of points (SMU 41, ISU 49, OkSt 34) and they only managed to beat Arkansas Pine Bluff, Dumpster Fire Purdue, Unpeaked Kansas and a band-aid Texas. Again, Baylor’s strength of schedule isn’t great, but in each head to head they have with TCU they won. Big 12 Margin of Victory for Baylor is ~9 so I’ll take the -2 and guess the final score ends up being 28-17 Baylor.

  24. teddycuddles says:

    Is there a Chiefs Titans line?

  25. Art Briles Hirer says:

    Boston College – 1.5 over FSU
    Minnesota +7 over PSU
    Vikings +3 over Cowboys
    Cardinals +4.5 over Bucs
    Illinois +14.5 over MSU (Essay)
    LSU +6.5 over Bama (All-Play)

    • Art Briles Hirer says:

      Illinois is the really popular pick, to the point where the line suggests that Vegas knows something the rest of us don’t. Usually in the case, you gotta go with Vegas, but I don’t think they’re right here.

      The idea is that MSU is loaded with talent, way more than Illinois, and that now that they’ve emerged from the tough part of the schedule, they’ll regroup. Illinois is riding high with house money but won’t be able to sustain it against a team that can beat them in the trenches. But I think that overrates an MSU team that hasn’t been able to push anyone around for months. Now with Joe Bachie out, MSU’s run defense takes a big hit against some of the best running backs in the conference. And Illinois’ defense is starting to play good football, and MSU just can’t score reliably. I’m expecting a close game and feel great taking the points.

  26. Peter G. Wendler says:

    Ohio Bobcats -7 vs. Miami University (Loss)
    FAU Owls -10 vs. FIU Panthers
    Illinois Fighting Illini +14.5 @ Michigan State Spartants
    Buffalo Bills +3 @ Cleveland Browns
    (AP) Alabama Crimson Tide -6.5 vs. LSU Tigers

    Essay: Penn State Nittany Lions -7 @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

    Not enough points; plain and simple. The Gophers have played NOBODY. What is their best win? A 3-point road victory at Fresno State??? A 7-point win against FCS foe (albeit a good one) South Dakota State? Hmm. James Franklin is probably COTY at this point after losing McSorley and putting an even better team on the field. The Lions are trying to kill two birds with one stone this week: Knock off a quality opponent on the road (again) and keep pace with Ohio State in the B1G East. Both of these teams can score, but Penn State has scored against MUCH tougher competition. Look for them to shut down Minnesota, and roll in TCF Bank. Give me Penn State 31-17.

  27. Give me the Chargers (-1) for a point tonight, please. Picks coming on Friday.

    • LAC (LOSS)
      KC (No Line)
      Bucs (+4.5)
      Rams (-3.5)
      AP – LSU (+6)

      Essay – Baltimore (-10)

      I have no feel for the league, as evidenced by my switching a Steelers win for Adam Gase’s Jets clown show. I’ll go back to basics with the Ravens – albeit with a big spread. While I’m not comfortable picking a team that a Freddie Kitchens squad beat up a month ago, they are the most complete team going right now – and they’re facing a rookie QB.

  28. Pheasantpants says:

    Temple for 1
    LSU

    • Pheasantpants says:

      POTY – Penn State -7

      teddycuddles gave some great context to the Minnesota side of this matchup in his essay above. I’m not sure if this line is tricky because I think it holds pretty close to what the computers say are the differences between the two. Penn State is as back as they’ve been since leaving the ranks of the independents, as evidenced by their #4 ranking in this season’s initial CFP rankings. These two programs have similar offensive efficiency but Penn State is much better on D–and against a greater strength of competition. Minnesota is a surprising 8-0 because they haven’t beaten anyone good yet. Presumably, their best win came in OT against Fresno State. As a Gator fan, I know not to turn my nose up at a hard-fought home win against Georgia Southern. But Penn State has claimed wins against tough Iowa and Michigan teams and a Pitt team that has won 5 of 6 after playing the Nittany Lions. This Minnesota season has 9-3 and a central Florida bowl game written all over it; a nice season for that program but one largely goosed by divisional alignments and schedule sequencing. If Minnesota had had a more intermediate test going into this one–maybe playing Iowa–I’d have more confidence in them. As is, I think this is a pretty tough spot for the Gophers, and the kind that usually results in some heartbreak for the upstart team.

  29. ckozelka says:

    LSU +6.5 – more to follow

  30. CLTIL says:

    Chargers -1 tonight

    • CLTIL says:

      Alabama for the AP

    • CLTIL via email.

      Packers -5
      Rams -3.5
      Vikings +3
      Lions +2.5 at Bears** POTY

      **Well, my sentimental side is holding sway over my numbers side this week. Again. I’m a little sleep deprived, worked a solid 9 hours today to get ahead, and just landed on the couch with some locally made beef jerky and a little bourbon to get this one in the books. (Oh my gosh I probably sound like a guy right now, don’t I). I’ll be up at the crack tomorrow to begin my 7-hour drive to Royal Oak, MI just outside of Detroit to meet my beautiful new grand-daughter Cecelia (“CeCe”), who made her way into the world very early this morning and who is also why I am (happily) sleep deprived. I’m probably the only grandma on here and let me tell you, it’s the best thing there is. So…I’ll be driving through Chicago on my way, and ending up in greater Detroit so of course this game will have to be my POTY. I don’t have a lot of background except that the Bears have been a colossal disappointment and the Lions have been so-so for so-so long, it’s getting old. These teams are at the bottom, and the Bears are probably due for a win after losing 4 in row but I’m going to put a drive-by whammy on them late morning tomorrow as I drive through so they’re toast. I won’t have to be tortured watching the thing, with all the driving and going straight to the hospital, so maybe little CeCe will be my good luck charm. Or not. She’s healthy and dangerously cute and that’s more than enough for me.

  31. Cleveland Frowns says:

    1) Miami O. +7 over O.U.

  32. clevta says:

    1. LSU +6.5
    2. Tulsa +17: it’s my wedding weekend so making this my essay non essay week thx
    3. ODU -4
    4. SF -6
    5. Pit +3.5
    6. Dallas -3

  33. Peter Wendler says:

    Ohio Bobcats -7

  34. Lucylaw12 says:

    1. Gotta get on the first Tuesday night Maction
    Give me Ball State for a point

    • LucyLaw12 says:

      2. USF

      • Lucylaw12 says:

        3. AP Bama
        4. Louisville
        5. Cowboys
        6. Essay 49ers

        I think the 49ers defense will be able to slow down Russ enough to get the cover. Their defensive front has been impressive and I look for them to be able to get the Seahawks off the field. Tampa Bay was able to move the ball at ease. That being said switch QBs from Jameis to Jimmy G and I like my chances. I think San Fran is legit and expect them to continue to show that on Monday night.

  35. agnes says:

    Ball st +6.5

    • Agnes says:

      Miami oh

        • agnes says:

          Southern Mississippi essay. When I looked at this weekend I could not find a game I liked. I had a lot of regrets about not getting time to essay Temple, Ball St or Miami-O. I had marked the UAB-Southern Miss game but could not figure out why when I looked later. Maybe the legendary punter Ray Guy or maybe it was my never having essayed Southern Mississippi before. I didn’t even know what the Miss stood for-was it Mississippi or Missouri or just Miss? It’s original name was Mississippi Normal College-which sounds a lot better. SoMi, as I will call, them hosts this year. The home team in the UAB/Somi match ups has not covered the spread in for the last 5 years making this game somewhat attractive. Also it may only be the families of the players watching since it is on the same time as the LSU/Alabama game which seems like it would have a similar airwave market share. I also like the cheddar line is -4.5 and in real life it is -7. All good stuff for the Golden Eagles or the Normalities as they were originally called.

          Other votes
          LSU
          Seahawks

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