Home » Cheddar Bay Archive » Cheddar Bay 2013 » Cheddar Bay week 6: OSU -7 at NU.

Cheddar Bay week 6: OSU -7 at NU.

Here is your happy Week Six Cheddar open thread.  In addition to being way too happy with the Bucks, Browns, and Indians from last weekend, we’re happy because we/Cheddar hit at 52% overall and a very good 61% one essaypicks.

Screen Shot 2013-10-02 at 7.35.37 AM

Raises questions with no good answers..

Clearly the Bobby Brian Hoyer* effect reaches further than Berea.  Could the improved Cheddaring be related to the eerie likeness between Hoyer and our own Cheddar Bay founder?

Maybe this has more to do with my own possible baldism.  But they look like twins to me.


Other business, congrats and welcome back to ClevelandThatILove (aka CLTIL) on her Lobsterfest.  I had been meaning to remove the jinx I put on her in the August ‘welcome’ post:

… the champ in my mind, the player I watch, is CLTIL and her money picks.  She was an unbelievable 14-2 in 2011 on her essays and followed up with 12-6 last year.  That’s 76% (26-8) winners over two years against the spread on CLTIL’s pick of the week.

Now I don’t have to.


On the other of the spectrum, sadly I had to fire mom.  It turns put those poor AFA performances my folks saw were versus USU and Wyoming.  (!!!)  Like Dr. Evil, this organization does not tolerate failure so she was on first flight out Sunday AM.  (Awww… just kidding and of course I have access to a schedule which can be used to check data and such as.)

I wish to acknowledge the requests to move on from the local team all-plays but lookit:  OSU at NU is the best game this weekend.  You won’t see Ohio State again until the Michigan game.  Like Bluto, your Cheddar Bay Sergeant-at-Arms is just doing his duty.

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Your Delta Tau Chi name is Pinto.
Why Pinto?


Drop them picks in the comments below as you have them.  Happy happy happy happy happy happy!  Go Tribe!  Go Browns!  Go Bucks!




@ClevTA's Skanky Fish Picks.

@ClevTA’s Skanky Fish Picks.

Skanky fish picks:

From ClevTA’s post below:  … 4-3 ATS last week on the picks with all 4 dogs winning outright. That makes a cool 12-5-1 since inception with an astonishing 10 out of the 12 covers winning outright (8 of the 10 winning outright were underdogs).

  1. Wake Forest +9.5 v NC St (Line opened NC St -9.5, now -8.5, 73% of public on NC St) Pick: Wake
  2. FL Atlantic +4 v UAB (Line opened UAB -7, now -4, 68% of public on UAB) Pick: FL ATL
  3. Middle Tenn St +7.5 v ECU (Line opened ECU -9, now -7.5, 67% of public on ECU) Pick: MTSU
  4. Tennessee +3 v KC (Line opened KC -3.5, now -2.5, 75% of public on KC) Pick: Titans
  5. Chicago PK v NO (Line opened PK, now Chi -1.5, 63% of public on Saints) Pick: Bears


* Raise your hand if you’re a sufferer of Bobby Hoying/Brian Hoyer dyslexia.  /raises hand.


  1. cleinmpls says:

    Falcons -9.5 for my last pick of the week

  2. bupalos says:

    Texans & chargers late

  3. cheddarclay says:

    Colts (+3) / Seahawks


    I like Andrew Luck getting points at home. I also like Andrew Luck vs a very aggressive defense. West coast team coming east for a 1pm kickoff is not to be dismissed. I know there are actual numbers for this but I don’t know them. I think this sets up for Trent Richardson to have a big game as well. The Seahawks are not going to go undefeated, this seems like a good spot for them to lose one.

  4. cleinmpls says:

    Packers -7 essay

    With Calvin Johnson out, I don’t see a way that the Lions can keep up. Looking at the last 3 games be has had against GB, it’s crazy. GB is going to key on Reggie Bush, so just so long as they contain him, 7 is going to be easy to cover here. Plus it will be fun to ride with Rodgers today. It’s been awhile. Packers win. By 10-14 today, and that may be with a Lions garbage time TD.

  5. bupalos says:

    Seahawks and saints in the earliest.

  6. thatsfine says:


    Indianapolis +1 / Seattle

    Winners: Browns, UTenn, Kentucky, OSU (wow, that one was incredible)
    Losers: Kent St.

  7. Petefranklin says:

    Franklins loser #6 Ravens+3 I have no interests in playing any sides today, even my pick, except maybe some late night dog action but I do have a couple more totals that if you play both you probably wont lose more than juice, Cincy OVER and Miama UNDER. I would say G.L.but most all of you are carrying a shamrock up your behinds with that OSU cover, so you probably don’t need it.

  8. oxr says:

    All-Play: Buckeyes -7 over Northwestern (W) – for the second week in a row I wake up to discover that the Buckeyes have done something implausible to rescue a pick that seemed all but lost.

    Chargers -5 over Raiders – Raiders are still quite bad

    Eagles +2.5 over Giants – anything can happen but the Eagles’ bad record has come against better teams;
    Giants are still awful.

    Chiefs -3 over Titans – dangerous game because the Titans have looked decent and are a threat to score on defense, but I don’t believe in Ryan Fitzpatrick at this point.

    Lions +7 over Packers – points

    Essay: Panthers -2.5 over Cardinals – This is probably the biggest DVOA imbalance on the board, for what that’s worth at this point of the season. The Panthers are in a different time zone but at least they’re going east-to-west and are coming off a bye week, having utterly stomped a terrible Giants team and lost close ones to Seattle and Buffalo. The Cardinals have one semi-quality win (Lions) and have lost to the Rams. Their win over the generally woeful Bucs was way, way closer than it should’ve been. The strength of the Cardinals is probably their secondary, and the Panthers should be able to run the ball early and often to offset that. Fewer than 3 points is enticing here.

    • oxr says:

      ABORT! ABORT! Calvin Johnson ruled inactive. I’ll sub that Lions pick out for Bears-over-Saints, if I may.

  9. cleinmpls says:

    Chiefs -3
    Bears PK
    Ravens +3

  10. Harbaugh Handshakes says:

    Essay: Chiefs -3 over Titans.

    As Browns fans we know all to well the impact an efficent QB can have on your offense. Locker was playing out of his mind this yr, efectively using his legs and leveraging that into putting pressure on LB’s to commit one way or the other and punishing them with whichever decision they made (step up to stop his scramble, he’d dump it over their head; hang back he’d take off.) with Locker out I expect the Titans offense to take a step back, and I don’t see the Chiefs slowing down. Alex Smith is a much better Brian Hoyer. Not only is he better than Hoyer but he has better weapons with charles in the backfield and a nice cast of WR’s. I expect the Chiefs to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win this game easily. 24-10 Chiefs.

  11. Bevilacqua says:

    Three more NFL picks today (Ohio State, Florida State, and LSU all won yesterday).

    Still very giddy over that crazy touchdown on the last play of the game to give OSU the cover. Now onto the NFL, where I’m 2-12 this season:

    Chiefs (-3) over Tennessee
    Is Locker really that much better than Fitzpatrick? I don’t know, but he’s certainly more mobile. The Chiefs will keep rolling.

    Texans (+7) over 49ers
    I am basically betting that Matt Schaub will NOT throw a pick-6 this week. Maybe even pull the upset?

    ESSAY: Panthers (-2.5) over Cardinals
    As ESPN’s preview tells me, Carolina begins a stretch this week against five teams all .500 or below. This is the time that Rivera will either prove himself worthy of his job, or this will be the beginning of his demise. I’m not exactly sold on Ron Rivera (especially after hiring Sean McDermott as defensive coordinator…does anyone remember how bad he was for the Eagles?), but the coaching staff did have the balls to bench Jon Beason, which I’d like to think has spawned a Trent Richardson effect. Also: Arizona traded starting left tackle Levi Brown on Wednesday, and claimed a guy off of waivers to replace him. Given that Carolina has some good DEs, this can’t end well for the Carson Palmer and the Cardinals. Second also: DeAngelo Williams is quietly having a resurgence, since Jonathan Stewart’s injury has forced the Panthers to give him the ball more than 8 times a game. He always had the talent, and even though he’s 30 now, he has only 477 carries going back to the beginning of 2010.

  12. bobby_slick says:

    Let’s keep fighting back…

    Via Twitter:
    -Browns (Win)
    -Clemson (Win)
    -OSU ?

    -Texans +5.5
    -Eagles +2.5
    -Patriots PK ***

    Patriots in a pick ‘em against the Andy Dalton led Bengals? I think I’ll take Tom Brady who just went into a dome against Atlanta, a team that is tough as nails on that turf, and smoked Matty Ryan and his Falcons. Even without the usual stud weapons he has at his disposal, Brady has been on point and should go into Cincy and get a win with no problem. Over the last 2 weeks Brady has 4 TDs to 1 INT, and he has never once lost to the Bengals in his career. Throw in the fact that Brian Hoyer was able to quickly analyze the Bengals D and pick them apart, I see no reason the Pats don’t handle business on the road.

    In other news, go Browns!!

  13. Petefranklin says:

    Well since I shit my pants with USMiss, I need to make up ground so, Northwestern Wildcats for the all play. The books love you OSU backers today. Thanks for the two points again, just like last week. BTW I really wanted to trade essay picks to Georgia after I saw what the line did(reversed) with USM but didn’t want to bother our keeper.
    Pick #5 NW Wildcats

  14. oxr says:

    All-Play: Buckeyes -7. NFL tomorrow.

  15. KTOinCLE says:

    All Play: Ohio State -7

    Welcome to Northeast Ohio as I know it. Last week, putting picks into the context of a relatable topic (i.e. where I’ve partied my butt off) really helped me find some clarity and take the pressure off.

    However, I am without a concept today and inspiration is hard to glean from the doom and gloom rudely outside of my window.

    Frankly, I had to lookup where Northwestern was….I had an inkling it was Chicago area and I was right. I also found myself letting out a big, exasperated sigh. Of course it’s Chicago, wah, wah, wah, everyone loves Chicago. Cleveland’s holy grail. When my fiance tells someone he’s from Chicago, they’re reaction is “how’d you end up here?” or “I’m so sorry you’re in Cleveland now,” or “Oh my God, Chicago, I went there once and LOVED it.” People really need to calm down about Chicago, I get it, I like it too, but Northeast. Ohio has some really great features about it too! So, I can’t in good faith pick a team from the Holy Land, every Cleveland defector’s dream, Chicago.

    Arbitrary Picks:
    Lions +7 at Green Bay
    Chicago Bears over the NO Saints
    Texans +7 vs. 49ers
    Chargers +5 vs. Raiders

    Essay: Patriots- I’m picking Patriots.

    I think the Bengals will lose. With an 80% chance of rain in Cinci tomorrow their 2-2 record won’t be enough to bring in the numbers to make being a home game worth anything. No cat likes rain. Here’s a wet cat- let me see if this inspires any confidence- http://static2.worldofwonder.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/wet-cat1.jpg Nope, didn’t think so…wet cats versus a patriot? I’ll take team with the guys with the guns. (Sorry Hernandez, not you, the mascot.)
    Unless Dalton’s hurt and Freeman’s in for him, I’m not sure how this got to be a “Pick’em” game. If Tom Brady threw a pass in the woods and no one was there to catch it, it still wouldn’t hit the leafy ground. Though the Pats are on my naughty list for releasing Zoltan Mesko and letting him go the the Steelers, I’m feeling pretty good about riding them up the Cheddar Leaderboard this week. The Pats might also get lucky and have a couple of pass targets back in the game this week. Also- I would like to honor a Patriot from Ohio, like Zolton was, NOT Illinois….
    Nate Ebner #43 Defensive Back- born in Columbus, Ohio…I wonder if he was a Bengals or Browns fan growing up.

  16. Peter Markos says:

    OSU over NW
    Cincy -12 over USF
    STL -12.5 over JAC
    SD -6 over OAK
    ATL -9 over NYJ
    NE over Bengals
    ” Where are we? ”
    “C’mon Anna I know you can hear me.”
    Leo where are we?
    “Talk to man.”
    “Where are we”

    “First Place Daddy”

    “Woo hoo!”

    With Weeds back at QB it will be short lived, but dammit, I will enjoy it. The Pats are rolling. Talib can slow down Green. The Bengals cant stop Brady.

  17. bupalos says:

    tOSU -7 for all-play

  18. mattborcas says:


    Clemson (-14) over Syracuse
    Georgia (-11.5) over Tenn.
    Northwestern (+7) over OSU

    NFL tomorrow…

  19. jmacdaddio says:


    NU +7 OSU (Home Dog says woof)
    NC State -9.5 over WF
    Auburn +3 over Ole Miss
    Panthers -2.5 over Cardinals
    Dolphins -3 over Ravens

    Essay: 49ers – 7 over Texans

    Tampa Bay has the bye this week, which messes up my fantasy football (D. Martin is one of my RBs) and reality football. The Bucs are winless and by all accounts are in total disarray, so this week there’s only one reliable doormat on the other side of the state. Coach Soprano will not last the season. The Niners seem to be putting it together and the Texans are struggling to find themselves. Arian Foster is solid but his days as a fantasy phenom are over. The Niners started off strong, sputtered, found their rhythm last week on the road, and now have a winnable game at home. I don’t see them squandering this opportunity. Also a rooting interest in this game will help fill the Sunday night void now that Breaking Bad is over.

  20. Concierge says:

    Michigan State +1 essay
    Ball State +4.5
    Indiana +3
    Cincinnati -11

    I think people are over rating Iowa after they beat an overrated Minnesota team from a week ago. Coach Dantonio will have the boys ready to go. Kirk Ferentz has been stealing money for the past couple of years and I’m pretty sure this will be his last year in Iowa City. I do like Iowa’s defense but I think MSU’s D is better. MSU wins a low scoring game.

  21. Zarathustra says:

    Browns (essay)(w)
    Ohio St -7 over Northwestern (all-play)
    North Carolina +7.5 over Virginia Tech
    Ravens +3 over Dolphins
    Patriots over Bengals
    Cowboys +9 over Broncos
    Also like: Washington, Oklahoma, canes, miss st, Illinois, and jaguars

  22. DQuatts says:


    #3. I’ll take Iowa today to beat up on Sparty.

    Hawkeyes! Hawkeyes! Hawkeyes!

    • DQuatts says:

      What a Buckeyes cover! WOW!

      DQuatts Week 6

      Browns (win)
      Iowa (lose)
      Ohio State (WIN!)

      #4 Bears pk
      #5 Titans +3
      #6 Packers -7

      This is the time that the Green Bay Packers refocus and move one step closer towards the playoffs. After a rough start and a couple bad breaks with injuries, the bye week couldn’t have came st s better time. Rodgers and Lacy will help keep the ball from Stafford and Co. The Packers D will come prepared, ready to stop an offense that put up 40 on the bears last week. What a great division matchup, and a great chance for the Pack to rock and roll at home! Happy Sunday everyone!


  24. thatsfine says:


    Browns -4 essay (win)
    OSU -7 / NW
    Kentucky +21.5 / SC
    Tennessee +11.5 / UGA
    Kent St. +10 / NIU

    NFL pick later

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