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P3 — Champ week P3

Packers +7.5 at Niners
Titans +7 at Chiefs

25 points on the table:  10+10+5 for the essay.  Picks due to Matt by 2:05pm Sunday.  Go get em.


11 Comments

  1. Art Briles Hirer says:

    Why the change in point values? In the post at the beginning of the playoffs it said the week was worth 15 total (5 each game plus 5 essay)

  2. mattborcas says:

    Cleveland Frowns:

    It’s been a rather middling couple of weeks of playoff voting for old frowner but I’m still hanging around with a chance to win this due to hits on my respective votes of the week. First I chose the Titans over the Pats because I thought they were underrated, particularly in the impact that a newly motivated Ryan Tannehill has had on the offense and the team in general. Then last week I went with the Chiefs because I thought folks might not be accounting for how bad/depleted the Texans defense was in the back seven and that the Bills with Josh Allen were not able to exploit that the week before in the way the Chiefs would be. With my respective votes of the week now facing off against one another this week, the choice then is clear:

    ***Tashaun Gipson Memorial Vote of the Week: Titans +7 over Chiefs***

    I don’t love going against this KC squad in general and especially not after what they did to Houston last week but I’ve got a thread here and I’m going to follow it. The Titans defense is a lot better than the Texans,’ especially in the back seven where they play two of the best safeties in the league, Kenny Vaccaro and Kevin Byard, who were both huge in last week’s upset over the Ravens (btw did you know that Byard is the highest paid safety in NFL history?). The Titans are going to score some points today, they surely believe they can beat anyone at this point, and if they can get some stops they’ll be right there to beat the Chiefs today, or hopefully at least within 7. Anyway it shouldn’t be anything close to as easy for KC today as it was last weekend.

    And I guess it won’t be so easy for SF as it was last week either? I dunno but I’ll take GB +7.5 in the late game.

    Thanks and good luck again to all!

  3. mattborcas says:

    AmplifiedEsq:

    1. Chiefs -7
    2. Packers +7.5

    Essay: Chiefs -7

    An improved Chiefs defense, a healthier Patrick Mahomes, and that ever important home field advantage top the list of reasons I’m taking the Chiefs -7 over the Titans in this Week 10 rematch in the AFC Championship.

    When these two teams last met it was Mahomes first game back, probably weeks earlier than most expected, and he threw for 446 yards and 3 TDs. There was no rushing aspect to his game that week, which he highlighted last week, and he wasn’t able to finish drives with touchdowns, as Butker attempted 5 FGs (making 4 of them).

    True to current form, Derrick Henry ran for 188 on 23 carries the last time these teams met, with a long of 68. This is the game many people probably envision Henry having today given his current form. I don’t doubt Henry will get his, but I do believe they’re going to have to lean on their passing game more today than the last two playoff games. The Chiefs got way behind last week. They realize they can’t let that happen again and I expect them to come out the way we saw them close the game vs. the Texans. Slinging the ball down across the field and scoring touchdowns. Chiefs will do what they can to make this a Ryan Tannehill game and while he has been great since taking over, this is the AFC championship. I’ll put my essay points in the arm of Mahomes and hope they don’t come out cold.

  4. mattborcas says:

    HitTheHorns:

    Chiefs
    Packers essay

    Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 253 yards and two TDs in the Niners dominant win against the Packers on 11/24. His 145.8 passer rating was his best of the season. Aaron Rodgers had a career worst performance in this same game. I’m going to throw this result out and say today’s game will look nothing like their previous matchup. SF looked dominant last week and GB barely squeaked by a depleted Sea team. I just believe 12 on GB is too historically good to fall to 1-3 in conference championships. Tough for anyone to watch these teams play recently and think the Packers can win this game, but we know how random this stuff is. Garoppolo will give the Packers defense a few opportunities at turnovers. Last week Kenny King dropped an easy INT. They make those plays today and l think they can keep it close. Also writing this on a flight with no internet, found a note in my phone from Sept 16 – “Garoppolo sucks. GB defense is for real. Steelers O is discombobulated. Garoppolo awful.” Trusting my instincts!

  5. mattborcas says:

    Art Briles Hirer:

    Taking KC and SF and gonna essay San Francisco.

    From both a history standpoint and a matchup standpoint, too many things favor San Francisco. First off, they get a massive advantage of forcing Green Bay to play on the west coast. Then of course you have the week 12 matchup San Francisco won 37-8. The Niner defense is just way too stifling right now. They’ll stop the run and force Rodgers into 3rd downs constantly. The only real weapon Green Bay has for making plays is Davante Adams but the Niners are more than capable of keeping him in check like they did in the regular season. On the other hand, the Niners will be able to run the football, keep their defense off the field, and grind away all game to set up some big put-away TDs in the 2nd half. While Green Bay stopped Seattle last week, San Francisco has a lot more than the ancient Marshawn Lynch at their disposal. And tellingly enough, while the KC line has moved towards the underdog, this line hasn’t. Smart money believes SF can cover this and so do I.

  6. mattborcas says:

    FlyHighCharlieFrye:

    Titans
    Packers

    I get that the Niners are good, and that D-line is monstrous. But I
    liked the Packers’ confidence last week. I liked Rodgers knowing where
    to go with it. They’ve been under the radar and after watching both
    games I feel good saying the Vikings were terrible and the Packers
    played like a team that could play another week. I’m gladly taking the
    points and thinking they can be in position to win if they can force a
    few turnovers. It should be low-scoring and competitive and I like 12
    having the ball late, whether it’s to win it or get it inside the
    number.

  7. mattborcas says:

    603brown:

    titans and niners. titans are the essay.

    i am all in on the titans. for starters they have the best secondary in football. i noticed this while looking for copes in the browns opener loss: ‘of course cam wake is ten years younger when our wrs have byard-vaccaro-ryan-butler draped over them.’ lose malcolm butler? first rounder adoree jackson anyone? hell even the waiver pickup from butler-to-IR in november– something something brock– HE graded out at 78, third on team, in the ravens game. which leads me to think, as good as these backs are, when midseason waiver scraps can come in and perform, maybe it’s just a superior scheme and coaching? whatever the case, i fully believe in the titans dbacks. with byard and vaccaro at safety they should be able to ‘spy’ on mahomes’ run tendency just like they did on jackson. casey is all-ready allpro and simmons make more impact every week, the interior dline is and will be elite. so lack of producing edge rushers isnt a worry for me, their job is to contain mahomes in the pocket while casey and simmons push up the middle. i seriously see this defense shutting down the chiefs exactly like the ravens and i am very interested to see if the observation is on mark. on offense, conklin-lewan-saffold are names we should all know. (how did we not grab saffold after trading zeitler, ugh.) i had to laugh when my twitter feed included observations implied tannehill isnt worthy of franchise tag because he didnt pass for over 200 yds in last two games. like… did you even watch the game? you do realize they just beat the pats and ravens on the road in the playoffs bro? smh.. fantasy wanks amirite? the scrapping of the media-baked narrative of ‘mariotas-team’ was the turning point for vrabel and this team. now that theyre unshackled from having to prove that they made a good draft pick everyone can settle in and contribute their piece in the most constructive way possible. i mean, for all we know aj brown is as good as dk metcalf. but when henry can get you 180 yds and 8 minute drives the need for vertical strech offense goes away and pretty sure i havent read anything about aj brown grumbling about his touches.. i love love love this team, their approach, and of course their coach who is the embodiment of the best osu and belichick can produce.

  8. mattborcas says:

    BWhalen:

    Packers +7.5
    Titans +7 essay

    The titans have been rolling all playoffs long and I’m not sure it stops here. Vrabel has them playing phenomenal defense and Henry is a MANIMAL. Even if they somehow lose this one, I don’t think it’s by more than 7. Never in my life did I think I’d be putting all my biscuits in the basket of a team led by Ryan Tannehill, but this is lining up to be a Super Bowl run like the Ravens with Flacco or Dilfer. Great D, good run game and the QB just doesn’t Screw it up. Also hoping that the 3 guys ahead of me didn’t choose both the titans and the packers so that why I rolled with Tennessee. They Blew is out week 1 and turned the browns season upside-down from the get go. So titans, I ask you, can you please go out and do it to the Chiefs to help me get 1 step closer to being a 2-time cheddar champ?

    Titans for 15 biscuits and endless shrimp

  9. mattborcas says:

    Wenbickert:

    Chiefs -7
    Niners -7.5 (essay)

    The Buffalo Bills, with an aid from the refs, crapped the bed against the Texans in the wild card round. Since this was my essay pick, it would have catapulted me into first place.

    Alas, I have not picked a single game correctly including and up to that point. I am stuck at 97.5 points and In dead last. Excruciating is an understatement.

    It’s gotta end sometime, right? Give me the handsomest QB this side of Tom Brady leading the way to an easy win over the fraudulent Green Bay Packers. Niners are loaded, healthy, rested, and supremely well coached. The half point hook doesn’t scare me. George Kittle will have the game of his life. Rodgers will be running for his life. Niners 31, Pack 17

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