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Home » Cheddar Bay Archive » Cheddar Bay 2013 » #CheddarBay Week 8: FSU -3 at Clemson.

#CheddarBay Week 8: FSU -3 at Clemson.

* THIS WEEKS LINES ARE LINKED HERE.
* THIS WEEK’S ALL PLAY IS FSU -3 AT CLEMSON (8PM SATURDAY, ABC).
* IPAD/MOBILEDEVICE USERS:  THE STANDINGS ARE LINKED HERE.
* DOUBLE CHECK MY ENTRY OF YOUR PICKS ON THIS SPREADSHEET.

Screen Shot 2013-10-16 at 9.01.42 PM

Winston or Beasley, who you got?

Nice little matchup shaping up Saturday night in South Carolina.  Say what you want about the NCAA but they do a decent job presenting their stats.  I decided to check Clemson and FSU out and it turns they’re pretty even.  (Stats are fun when you’re not ruled by them.)

Clemson (national rankings)

  • #1 3rd down defense (23.7%);
  • #14 Pass Completion Pct. (69.0%);
  • #10 First Down Defense
  • #4 (Least) Passes had intercepted (2)
  • #9 Interceptions (10)
  • #10 Passing Offense (342 YPG)
  • #18 (Least) Passing yards allowed (187 YPG)
  • #4 Red zone defense
  • #10 Scoring defense (16.2)
  • #17 Scoring offense (40.8)
  • #1 Sacks (4.0)
  • #8 Passing Efficiency
  • #1 Tackles for loss (10.2 per game)
  • #13 Total offense (515 YPG)
  • #4 Turnover margin (+1.5)
  • #2 Sacks, Vic Beasley

FSU

  • #5 Pass Completion Pct. (70.4%)
  • #2 First Down Defense
  • #1 (Least) Fumbles lost (1)
  • #4 (Least) Passes had intercepted (2)
  • #2 (Least) Passing yards allowed (149 YPG)
  • #6 Yards per completion (16.04)
  • #4 Red zone offense
  • #17 Rush offense (228 YPG)
  • #3 Scoring defense (12.0)
  • #3 Scoring offense (53.6)
  • #2 Passing Efficiency
  • #4 Total offense (549 YPG)
  • #1 (Least) turnovers lost (3)
  • #2 Passing Efficiency, Jameis Winston

_____
Skanky Fish picks via @ClevTA

@ClevTA's Skanky Fish Picks.

@ClevTA’s Skanky Fish Picks.

17-7-2 year to date, 2-1-1 last week.  As Kanick pointed out last night, La Laff would’ve fit the profile and won outright as a 3 pt dog.

NCAAF:

1. UCONN +13.5 v Cincy (Line opened Cincy -16, now -13.5. 69% of public on CIN) Pick: UCONN
2. CMU -15.5 v N Ill (Line opened N Ill -17, now -15.5. 66% of public on N Ill) Pick: CMU

NFL:

1. NYJ +4 v NE (Line opened -6, now -4. 76% of public on NE) Pick: NYJ
2. TENN +4 v SF (Line opened SF -6, now -4. 71% of public on SF) Pick: TENN

Seems about time to take this seriously…

______
Thank you Brandon Marshall.

AP-Chiefs-Titans-Football_001-1024x682

Acceptable.

Big ups to Brandon Marshall for using his platform to ‘raise awareness’ on a subject whose awareness actually needs raising:  Mental Health.  In case you missed it, Marshall (diagnosed with Borderline Personality Disorder) was fined $10,500 by the NFL for wearing green shoes last Thursday night.

Marshall had said before last Thursday’s game he was wearing the shoes to attract attention to Mental Health Awareness Week.  Marshall has been treated for a personality disorder in the past.

Marshall posted the league letter informing him of the fine on Twitter and wrote:  “Football is my platform not my purpose.  This fine is nothing compared to the conversation started & awareness raised.”

Marshall said he had planned to match any fine with a donation to his foundation, which supports mental health awareness.  He said he also plans to auction off the shoes and donate the proceeds to charity.

NFL: New York Giants at Chicago Bears

Unacceptable.

We’ve long viewed the NFL/BreastCancer/Komen month to be way over the top and thought that there are other charities/causes equally if not more deserving of the NFL’s help except that then it would actually be driven by the altruism it talks to rather than the more probable cynical outreach for larger audience share in that other gender demographic.

Here’s Brandon Marshall’s Foundation’s website.

_____
In other news …
It’s Acto’s world and we’re just living in it.

Nice work by HitTheHorns last week on his Lobsterfest.

And your Cheddar commissioner apologizes for not engaging more in the thread and twitter lately, just a little busy and — I have to share this — I have got a some kind of allergic reaction (confirmed, Poison Sumac) thing going where my face looks like Ali’s after the Holmes fight.  Damnedest thing, remarkably hideous, Elephant Man stuff.

Ok Cheddars let’s get back on track this week.


103 Comments

  1. Art Brosef says:

    Time to get moving, and Im off to see Good ol Freda this afternoon (www.goodolfreda.com) so Ill be missing most of the games. But they serve beer at Cedar Lee, so.

    As much as respect Fox Sports Jackson, ill be taking South Alabama for my essay. I took them as a dog a few weeks back against Troy and it payed off as they damn near won the game outright. It was actually a great game too. What, you didnt watch the etntire game online on espn gamecast? Oh, well, neither did I. Kent St cant score worth a shit, as they dont even manage 20 a game. Not to mention Trayio Durhmam is likely out. For the Jaguars, Metheny completes over 60 percent of his passes to a variety of different receivers and they have some playmakers on defense. Kent St isnt good enough to go on the road and cover this number.

    **South Alabama

    Also

    Ball St
    ECU
    North Texas
    FSU

    • Art Brosef says:

      I will add the Bills for my final play. I dont really understand the Miami love. They havent outgained an opponent one single time this year, and on the only time this Bills team has lost by more than a touchdown was against the Browns in a game where EJ Emmanuel got hurt.

    • jimkanicki says:

      Good ol Freda looks like a great take.. was it?

      • Art Brosef says:

        Yes, very enjoyable and and an interesting perspective. Not the usual Beatles stuff you can read in any number of books. My wife had previously seen it at the Cleveland Film Festival, and its playing at Cedar Lee for this weekend only.

  2. ArtVandelay says:

    @Michigan -7.5 vs IU M

    Washington St +39 @ Oregon – The last couple years Wash St for whatever reason has kept the scores respectable even though they stunk. They only smell this year & Oregon doesn’t need to run them off the field.

    Washington +3 @ ASU Might be a bad spot for the Huskies after two physical games but I like their squad.

    Bengals +2.5 @ Lions

    AP FSU -3 @ Clemson

    Essay Broncos -6 @ Colts

    As much as I like Luck & the Colts (LUCK IS 5-0 SU as a home underdog) I cant believe they are going to go 3-0 against the 49ers, Seahawks, & Broncos. I did win with the Colts & the points against the Seahawks but that game coulda, shoulda, woulda gone to the Seahawks had the TD fumble recovery been correctly called. The Seahawks were able to move the ball but had to settle for FGs. Manning should be able to score at will. The only question is will Denvers D be able to stop Indy?

    I believe Denver should have a much better shot at stopping Indy than Indy does stopping Denver. Missed in all the Peyton Manning returning to Indy talk is the fact that Von Miller will be returning to the field as well. Miller is one of the best in the game and should make an immediate impact. Additionally, Champ Bailey returned last week and should provide some needed help.

  3. Peter M says:

    FSU
    NORTHWESTERN -1.5 OVER MINNESOTA
    SD -7 OVER JAC
    ATL-7.5 OVER TB
    GB-10.5 OVER CLE
    ROGERS V. WEEDEN. HURRICANE V. 8 FT SAILBOAT, FIRE V. PAPER, CORVETTE V. YUGO, TANK V. PERSON, U.S. V. GRENADA, TYSON V. SPINKS, ALABAMA V. DIRECTIONAL SCHOOL, LOUSY GAME TO WATCH ON MY BIRTHDAY.

    CAR -6.5 OVER STL

  4. munasrevenge says:

    Wish I would’ve worked on this earlier, I liked UCF last night (yeah yeah hindsight, but it’s true 😉 )

    Wyoming (-6.5) vs Colorado State
    Boise State (-22.5) vs Nevada (Yeah yeah, too many points, trap game for BSU, bye week for Nevada… but Boise hates hates HATES Nevada.)
    North Texas (-6.5) @ Louisiana Tech
    Texans (+6.5) vs Chiefs (You can run against the Cheifs, and Houston loves to run the ball on everyone. KC also doesn’t score many points. This line jumped with the QB situation, but are we really sure that Case Keenum is a big downgrade from Matt Schaub and TJ Yates? I almost Essayed this one.)

    -Clemson (+3) vs Florida State (Neither team finishes undefeated and there is still LOTS of time for Clemson to be Clemson and lose an easy one down the road)

    –Wisconsin (-12.5) @ Illinois

    I changed my essay pick a few times this week, but I feel like this is the safest pick. Illinois is certainly much improved since last year’s candidate for worst BCS conference team, and they are coming off a bye. But coming from Toledo I never got Beckman to much of a game planner, so I’m not sure that helps them a whole lot this week. Also, Wisconsin simply has much better talent, and it’s hard to plan around that. Meanwhile Wisconsin is a sneaky great team which is one reffing abomination away from probably being in or close to the top 10 right now. Wisconsin should take care of business pretty easily in this game much like they did last week against a Northwestern team that is much better than Illinois. (Of course, this means that my other 2 near essays, Boise and the Texans, will cover easily, So you know, grain of salt and all.)

  5. clevelandfrowns says:

    Start me off with Ball Peen Hammer State -18.5 over Worstern Mich and UCLA +6 over Stanford please.

    • clevelandfrowns says:

      Two top 5 BCS title contenders. Two grownass men named Dabo and Jimbo. It’s football night in America. American football tonight.

      ESSAY: Florida State -3 over Clemson.

      I hereby incorporate by reference my warning of a few weeks back about how there was still time to get on the Famous Jameis bandwagon.

      I don’t see Boyd in the same class here at all, even with the experience edge, and it should show tonight. FSU is leading the nation (including Oregon and Baylor) in yards per drive and has done so playing some teams that aren’t entirely terrible. I’m not buying this business about Clemson having an elite defensive unit based on showings against the likes of Wake, NC State and Syracuse. If Georgia can put up 35 on this team, FSU can get 50. And USFCollin makes some good points about the Tigers’ “home field advantage” tonight.

      I might be more worried about the Jimbo thing (ESPN’s Will Harris savages him here (Insider only) — http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9837875/best-ats-bets-week-8-college-football –) if not for the Dabo thing on the other side, and I think that Winston is good enough and has enough weapons that it won’t matter anyway.

      Back tomorrow with 3 NFLs.

      • jimkanicki says:

        holy hell, this was nuts on.
        i might could sign on to tanking the balance of this and next year.
        no, actually i couldn’t but..
        do want.

      • clevelandfrowns says:

        I meant points per drive not yards per drive, sorry.

      • clevelandfrowns says:

        FSU (essay) W
        Ball St. W
        UCLA L

        Three NFL picks today:

        Eagles +2.5 over Cowboys: Will take the league’s number one rushing attack against a terrible Cowboys defense that just lost its best player. Also think Foles might be quite a bit better than Vick at this point. 2.5 is begging for plays on the favorite here.

        Texans +6.5 over Chiefs: Texans have the best defense the league as measured by yards per game and match up well against a one dimensional Chiefs offense. How much worse could Keenum be than Schaub and Yates? A KC play looks too easy.

        Packers -9.5 over Browns: Our long national nightmare of the Holmgren legacy and Brandon Weeden starting NFL quarterback continues and whatever the Lions did in the second half last week Aaron Rodgers can probably figure out too.

  6. Its Only Money says:

    SMU +3 @ Memphis
    @ Temple -2.5 Army
    Kent State + 6.5 @ South Alabama
    BYU -10 @ Houston
    All Play @ Clemson +3 FSU

    Essay @Philadelphia – 2.5 Dallas
    So since my Lobsterfest, my picks have gone down hill. So I have gone completely unscientific this week and picked completely randomly. I picked the 13th team in the list from today’s game on and just went with the 13th for the team and so on. Once I got 4 games picked I went to the all play and flipped a coin. For this essay I went to the NFL and counted up to 13, but wanted a home team so I took 14 on the list. I am going on the fact that the odds makers are good and know the spreads well enough to keep things close. It can’t get much worse than what my picks have been the last couple weeks in all pools that I am in.

  7. CleveLandThatILove says:

    Seahawks -6.5 Cards (w)
    (AP) Clemson +3 FSU
    Syracuse +7 Georgia Tech
    Denver -6 Colts …I just can’t stop
    U Conn +13.5 Cincy (Going with CleTA here, for reasons that have more to do with his name than anything else this week, but the track record speaks for itself.)

    Back shortly with a 6th plus my essay.

    • jimkanicki says:

      blah, blah, PACKERS, blah blah blah AARON RODGERS blah blah WISCONSIN blah blah blah.

      am i close?

    • CleveLandThatILove says:

      Final pick is Texans +6.5 Chiefs (Frownie said so, and he’s rolling)
      **Broncos -6 Colts

      Apart from all the emotions about loyalties vs disloyalties happening today in IndyApplesauce (what my kids used to call it – much better, isn’t it?), what matters here in Baydom is who will play the game better and smarter. Andrew Luck is good, and smart. But he is also young and rather inexperienced when you stand him next to Manning. There simply is no substitute for maturity and experience in any real-time pressure situation that calls for instantaneous decision-making. My hospital days in OB taught me that in a hurry.

      Von Miller is back, and in fine form by all accounts, which is huge for Denver since Luck is not good when under pressure.

      While the backstory surely makes for some good drama, and may or may not fuel motivation for some of the players, Peyton Manning is so far removed from that kind of thing on game day. Maybe I’m naive (or stubborn), but I can’t see anything but #18 rising to the occasion here and once again leaving us speechless.

  8. hitthehorns:

    Please REMOVE my pick of Temple.

    Adding California +10.

  9. TheKardiacKid

    Purdue +26.5 @MSU
    Texas Tech-6 @WVU
    @Temple -2.5 vs Army
    Bills +7.5 @Dolphins
    AP: @Clemson +3 vs Florida St
    Essay:
    Browns +9.5 @ Green Bay
    I have been in a tailspin the last 2 weeks and there is only one man who can pull me out of it. That man is Earmuffs Weeden. Green Bay is a superior team and the game is on the road but they have too many injuries to win by 9.5. Even Earmuffs can’t screw this pick up (Yes he can). Plus Chud told us that Earmuffs had a GREAT week of practice!!! And don’t forget that this game will probably be the debut of Fozzy “Bear” Whitaker. Here we go Fozzy, Here we go!

  10. Bevilacqua says:

    Bevilacqua

    UCLA (+6) over Stanford

    Florida State (-3) over Clemson

    ESSAY: Texas Tech (-6) over West Virginia

    In this game, there are many many different QB scenarios. Texas Tech has two freshman who have already earned the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week award this season. One is working off a knee injury, so I’m not sure who will start, but I don’t really care. West Virginia, on the other hand, has three quarterbacks who have started two games each this season, and they all more or less suck. So again, I don’t really care who plays. West Virginia is coming off an embarrassing loss to Baylor, and they had a bye week to prepare, but that won’t be enough. West Virginia might be able to keep it close early, but Tech will pull away as the game wears on.

  11. pateslvrblk says:

    All play FSU -3 over Clemson
    Washington+3 over Arizona State
    Central Michigan +15.5 over Northern Illinois
    Skins over Bears
    Steelers -2.5 over Ravens
    *** UNLV +24.5 over Fresno State
    Unlv quarterback Caleb Herring will present a challenge to Fresno State defense today as he has been effective with his arm and legs in fueling the Rebels four game winning streak. Unlv also has a strong back in Tim Cornett who averages 5.4yds on 123 plays. And it has a receiver in Devante Davis who is ranked second in Mountain West. “I thought a year ago they were very close in some games, but they didn’t know how to win and now they are getting over that hump and finding ways to win. The spread looks a bit off to this better UNLV team.

  12. tmoore94 says:

    Clemson +3 vs. Florida State
    Oregon State -10 @ California
    San Francisco -4 @ Tennessee
    Dallas +2.5 @ Philadelphia
    Indianapolis +6 vs. Denver
    Essay: Green Bay -9.5 vs. Cleveland

    • tmoore94 says:

      My bad, I meant Oregon -39 vs. Washington State, not the Oregon State pick. Mariota fever and all that.

      Essay:

      Jim Brown played his final game in a Cleveland uniform on Jan. 2, 1966, in a playoff loss to Green Bay. On that day, Brown rushed 12 times for 50 yards, a rather pedestrian total for the future Hall of Famer.

      Those numbers will look Hall of Fame worthy, though, as it is extremely likely that no Browns running back will surpass that total this Sunday against Green Bay.

      The Packers defense comes into the game third in the NFL in yards allowed (78 per game) and is giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They will try to “contain” a Browns running attack that is “led” by Willis McGahee and his 2.8 yards per carry (and McGahee’s 80-year-old knees) as well as the dawning of the Fozzy Whittaker era.

      No running game means the Browns will have to rely on Brandon Weeden and hope that Weeden stops doing Brandon Weeden things.

      Yeah, great plan.

      • acto says:

        Fozzy can play the game. He makes Macho Man TRich look like Chicken Little. If Fozzy can get the first hit pushed two yards past the line of spinach, he will look like Ricky Williams. Fozzy is a big upgrade from Bitchardson.

        • tmoore94 says:

          I think the Browns will be happy if Whittaker is an upgrade over Bobby Rainey, the last player they picked up from another team’s scrap pile who was supposed to a difference maker.

  13. Kansas Jayhawks +22.5
    West Virginia Mountaineers +6
    Clemson Tigers +3
    Dallas Cowboys +2.5
    Houston Texans +6.5
    *** Baltimore Ravens +2.5

    Ray Rice is healthy and the Ravens and John Harbaugh are desperate to get their running game going, and I think it happens this week against this Steelers team, which is a shell of its former self. Underdog also owns this series. And to me, Baltimore is the better football team, and is far better coached. Feel strongly that they win this matchup, so I will jump on the points.

  14. trashycamaro says:

    All Play: @Clemson +3 over FSU

    Cowboys +2.5 @Philly

    @Panthers -6.5 over Rams – I think the Panthers are finally putting it together.

    Chargers -7.5 over @JAX Big thanks to all the bettors that pushed this line down 2.5 points.

    @Giants -3.5 over Vikings

    @Dolphins -7.5 over Bills – thanks for getting me some points last week Thad!

    Essay: @KC -6.5 over Houston This is the only game that jumps off the page. (And, after writing my essay, I am much less sure about it, but still content to go against the 3rd string QB making his first start). The final in this one might only be 10-3, but Case is going to have some serious struggles moving the ball against KC, and I am definitely looking for multiple turnovers by the Texans. I would feel more comfortable in this game if KC was even a league average offense. As long as Jamaal Charles if able to play the Offense works – 9th overall in rushing DVOA – but if they have to switch to having Alex Smith make plays, they will be in plenty of trouble. I am still ok with the line, though, as the HOU offense comes in one notch behind our beloved Browns, riding 27th in DVOA. HOU also does better rushing the ball – 17th in DVOA vs a 31st rating in passing DVOA – and KC is actually pretty bad defending the run at 27th in DVOA. I don’t know that I have ever seen that big of a difference in defense of pass vs. defense of run while retaining an overall ranking. I still don’t think the HOU advantage in the run game will be enough to take the game for them, though, or even get them close enough to cover.

  15. Concierge says:

    North Texas -6.5
    Texas AM -12.5
    Purdue +28
    Clemson +3
    NIU -15.5
    Cowboys +2.5 Essay

    Still not buying what the Eagles are selling. I know this one is at Home for Philly but with Vick out I just cant find it in me to take Nick Foles over Tony Romo. The cowboys will be in a tough spot without Murray at RB but that just means Romo will sling it around some more. Romo to Dez Bryant has been one of the best things to watch in the NFL so far this season. Look for the Cowboys to not only cover the modest 2.5 but to win this game out right at Lincoln Financial.

  16. To complete my picks

    Essay: Seahawks (W)

    Clemson +3

    ND -3

    Patriots -4

    Bears PK

    Falcons -7

  17. pforever says:

    FSU -3 Clemson
    Ohio State -17 Iowa
    Washington +3 Arizona State
    ND -3 USC***
    Oregon -37.5 Washington State
    Ravens +1.5 Steelers

    Location location location – works for college football too. ND is coming off a bye week with a home game against its (actual) biggest rival, after which ND is heading into the softest part of its schedule. It’s going to be cold and rainy and USC had to travel across the country for the game. USC has come down from the interim high it experienced when it initially shed lane kiffin, and the internal turmoil in the USC program gives the Trojans a free pass to implode. In contrast, the underachieving ND has no (good) excuse for their disappointing season. And for what it’s worth, against their common rival Arizona State, ND came away with a win (and actually controlled most of the game) while USC got crushed. ND hasn’t beaten USC at home since 2001, but in this low scoring, semi-messy affair ND will put up just enough offense to get it done.

  18. chuckkoz says:

    Washington St +39 (at Oregon)
    Patriots -4 (at Jets)
    Broncos -6 (vs Colts)
    Giants -3.5 (vs Vikings)
    AP: Clemson +3 (vs FSU)
    Essay: Oregon St -10 (vs Cal)

    Oregon State is 5-1, Cal is 1-5. Oregon State won by 50 last year, with Cal appearing to be much worse this year (albeit in corvalis, but 1-5 Cal not going to be having some big homefield advantage). Oregon State just rolled WSU last week on the road, a team that is better than Cal (WSU beat Cal by 20 this year). I like that ability to make it happen on the road. And speaking of big road wins, OSU won in Utah, which looks pretty amazing in light of Stanford’s lost last week.

    Oh, and Cal is 0-6 ATS this year. I suppose that could cut both ways, but when I think about how this line I fall back to the fact that Cal has been overrated in every game. So I like the Beavers.

  19. thatsfine says:

    @thatsfine

    Clemson +3 / FSU – I have little to separate these two teams besides one is at home and getting points, plus has a high quality win (vs. UGA) and the other does not.

    UNLV +24.5 / Fresno St. (essay)
    Derek Carr and the Bulldogs’ prolific passing offense has piled on the points en route to a 5-0 record. This week they go up against the MWC’s best pass defense in UNLV who are limiting opponents to 45.1 percent passing and 165.8 yards per game (nationally ranking 4th and 8th). The UNLV defense overall still allows plenty of points overall, during the last two weeks 37 and 42 to Hawaii and New Mexico, respectively, and 36 ppg for the season. UNLV’s has also shown the ability to score in bunches running a hurry-up/spread offense, averaging 41 points during the current 4 game win streak after dropping their first two games. How hurry up is the offense? They ran 113 plays vs. Hawaii. Fresno State’s defense has seen better competition, but still has given up 37 to Hawaii, 40 to Boise State, 51 to Rutgers (in 3xOT), and an average of 33.4 ppg for the year. There should be plenty of points from both teams in this one, and UNLV will do enough to cover the spread.

    Central Michigan +15.5 / NIU – NIU has let inferior teams hang around and keep it close: Idaho, EIU, Akron, even Kent kept it close until late in the game. The only blowout was Purdue, who may actually be the worst team on NIU’s schedule this year.

    Washington St. +39 / Oregon – Oregon gets caught looking ahead to the next two games (UCLA and Stanford) and only wins by 35

    Houston +10 / BYU – Cougar on cougar violence, I’ll take the home team on homecoming day

    NFL pick later.

  20. Zarathustra says:

    UCF (essay)(w)
    Seahawks (w)
    Clemson +3 over Florida St (all-play)
    Texas Tech -6 over West Virginia
    Oregon St -10 over California
    Patriots -4 over Jets

  21. Jdoepke says:

    For the last 4-5 years I’ve dreaded betting Clemson games and the reason is this. I can’t win them. If I bet with them, they lose. If I bet against them they win. It’s just one of those things so when I saw the All Play this week I was not surprised, just pissed because it’s an almost certain loser for me. That being said, I loved UNC last night, loved UCF tonight and didn’t pick either officially because I suck. Here it goes for week 8 (not cool that it’s already week 8):

    Clemson + 3 (All Play)
    Colorado St + 6.5
    Ole Miss + 8.5
    USC + 3
    Jags + 7.5

    Oklahoma – 22.5 (Essay)
    Ok, I hate picking favorites. However look back over the last few years when Oklahoma comes off of a loss. They didn’t expect to lose last week and they’ve got Kansas this week in Kansas. The fact that the line is over 3 TD’s on the road tells me this is the right side, even though it’s come down from opening line of 24. I don’t love this pick and I can’t stand Bob Stoops and Oklahoma so why not pick a huge favorite on the road coming off a loss to their biggest rival? Oklahoma 49-17.

  22. Harbaugh Handshakes says:

    All Play:

    Clemson +3 over FSU: Just can’t not take these pts. It seems like everyone is assuming Clemson is going to choke but I don’t see it. Give me the experienced stud QB at home (Boyd) over the crzy talented red shirt freshman playing for a trip to NYC in prime time for the first time. This is Clemson’s yr. At least I hope it is.

    Dallas +2.5 @ Philly: I guess the thought is Ware’s out and everyone thinks Romo blows but I see it differently. This Dallas team went blow for blow with Manning and Romo has taken a big leap this yr. Dallas rolls in Philly.

    NYJ +4 over NE: Stanky pick of the week

    Ohio State -17 over Iowa: Ohio st better start blowing teams that suck out and Urban knows it.

    KC -6.5 over Houston: Houston may be starting a worse QB than the Browns this Sunday and they’re playing in Arrowhead. KC’s defense is the real deal and Alex Smith doesn’t make mistakes.

    Bears PK over Washington:(essay)
    I really believe that Washington is an awful team RGIII is the most over hyped QB in the league and spends more time talking about the olympics than just focusing on getting better. Cutler has been up and down this year but hes taking considerably less hits and Washington’s defense blows. The bears will put up a bunch of points and win this game. The only question mark is Chicago’s ability to stop the run. I honestly don’t think it matters Washington won’t be high powered offenses. This will be a high scoring affair but I expect the Chicago defense to create a few TO’s and Cutty to take full advantage. Love this line… Washington blows RGIII’s overrated.

  23. HitTheHorns:

    Florida State +3

    Temple -2.5

    Northwestern -12.5

    Cincinnati Bengals +2.5

    Essay: Washington Redskins PK

    Two teams that have been abysmal against the spread so far this year. I’m seeing 65% on Chicago and 86% of current ML on Chicago. Joe Public would never pick the Redskins here. WASH has yet to win a home game. WASH has not shown they have enough to beat a good team, which is why I don’t agree with the line. So look for WASH to get a W here.

    One more pick to come.

  24. Petefranklin says:

    I’m counting Clemsons win on new years eve for their 2nd big game win.

    • Petefranklin says:

      Looks like I lost my picks again in cyberspace.

      Essay Oregon -39 over Wazzu. I bet against the Cougars last week and came up roses. I’ll do the same this week. Oregon should get 14 gift points this game which will be enough to get over the hump if needed. OSU’s QB is good but Mariota is much better.Wazzu might hang for a minute, but they make too many mistakes on Defense to stay close here. Oregon will have heard about Clemson and the Buckeyes easily winning earlier and will make sure that they do the same. This falls into a 55% winning subset of all favorites of 20+ points the last few years

      AP Clemson

      #3OSU -17 @ Iowa

      #4Oregon St -10 @Cal

      #5 ECU – 22 over S. Miss. another 55% subset play

      #6 JETS +4

  25. Zarathustra says:

    This is the second week in a row with an unusual Louisville line. Last week I thought it should have been around 10.5 and it closed at 20. This week I would put it around 7.5 or 8 and I saw 14 yesterday. I like teddy (though not for the browns I don’t think) and coach strong and they are home, but I think the teddy hype, the bowl upset and blowing out shitty teams has led to them being quite overrated. Last year this same team would have covered this number twice–Kentucky and temple. Their conference slate was one close game after another and honestly I don’t think they played a team as good as this UCF team the entire regular season and it will definitely be their toughest opponent this year. UCF almost upset a damn good South Carolina team and went on the road and beat a solid penn st team. Sure they squeaked by Memphis, but there is no shame in that anymore as Memphis has a damn good defense.
    UCF has a shot at a SU upset tonight. This line is not right.

    UCF +13 over Louisville

    • jimkanicki says:

      essay pick?

      the only thing that gives me pause in jumping on UCF are lville’s gaudy defense numbers. now then… miami was #1 in pass defense till last nite feasting on pigeons/gatech… so it goes to show you what those ranks are really worth.

      but yeah, that line seems way off to me too.

      • clevta says:

        Kanick u have to adjust those rankings. Miami 1 in pass def vs tms ranked 119, 118, 100 and 85 in pass offense. It’s all relative. FYI, Ville’s opponent Yds/play offensive rankings this yr: 125, 101, 74, 65, 53. The highest ranked off opponent (UK) put up 5.52 Yds/play on offense in their game, way above the 3.8 Ville allows per game. Do what you will this info.

      • zarathustra says:

        Sorry for not being more clear. I intended it as a one pointer, but after some thought I will make it my money pick.
        ***

  26. cleinmpls says:

    Clemson +3 (All Play)
    Northwestern -12.5 (Essay)

    NW was hungover in Madison last week after going toe to toe with the Buckeyes a couple weeks ago. Assuming NW wants to have a “successful” season, they need to win out from here. They will come out with a chip on their shoulder this week and take out their frustration against a crappy Minnesota team. The Gophers may as well just pack up and start over next year, as they never seem hang with anyone that is worth a damn. The Jerry Kill situation is a shame, as he is a great dude. Kain Coulter is going to do his thing, and the Wildcats are going to move the ball at will against the lowly Gophers. Not a chance in hell that MN has the firepower to keep up in this game. My guess on final score is NW 38 and MN 17.

  27. clevta says:

    1. Arizona: L

    2. FSU -3 (All Play): Not easy going against Clemson, seeing as they were -1 before looking terrible against BC. I took a look at some of the numbers and opponents figures and FSU looks to be the more dominant team against opponents. Some quick analysis here. FSU has put up 8.1 yds/play in the nation (#2 nationally) and their opponents allow 5.8 yds/play on defense, so FSU has outperformed their opponents by 38% on offense. Clemson has put up 6.4 yds/play on offense (#35 nationally) and their opponents allow 5.4 yds/play, outperforming their opponents by 17% on offense. Advantage FSU. Defensively FSU has allowed 4.5 yds/play (25th nationally) with their opponents offense putting up 5.5 yds/play, holding their opponents 18% below their averages. Clemson has allowed 5.1 yds/play on defense (#59) while their opponents have put up 5.4 yds/play on average, holding their opponents 6% below their averages. Advantage FSU. Also FSU had a bye last week giving them another edge here.

    Back with more picks tomorrow

    • clevta says:

      3. Central Mich +15
      4. UCONN +13.5
      5. USC +3 (Essay)- I believe in the new coach mid season inspiring his players theory. It’s obvious the USC players despised Lane and so I think that Arizona win was the first of a run here. USC generally struggles against spread offenses with running QBs. No such problem here against ND. Marqise Lee is back and Aguilar is another stud WR who can make plays. Public percentages are pretty large on ND and the line has now dropped under the key 3 number at 2.5 currently.
      6. Colorado St +6.5

  28. KTOinCLE says:

    Wait- why am I still doing this? I suppose someone has to come in last and it might as well be me. The broad who joined because she likes writing more than football and this the only football game in town that cares about that sort of thing.

    Essay & All Play – What I like to call a “twofer”

    Florida State -3

    The all play is a no brainer for me me. I’ve always taken a shining to the Seminoles because while I’m not one of those girls who picks their NCAA Basketball Brackets by who has the best colors, I fricken love what Florida State has going on. My affinity for glitter is no secret and I can’t even imagine the joy if would have brought me to be able to wear gold glitter and call it school colors. The gold paired with garnet is magical. Hands down my favorite color scheme in all of sports.

    Gold and black is a little too crass and it’s way too easy to pull off. I only wish someone could make Steelers fans understand that they’re black and yellow, not black and gold, that’s the Saints. Any broad can pull off black and gold…takes a real woman to wear brown and orange. I digress.

    Even though I’m not personally close with any Seminole fans, my favorite Cleveland couple to follow on social media (that’s right, I’ve never met them in person) just got married and he’s a Seminole. One of my graduate teachers is an alumna of Florida State too, and she rocks. FSU is just surrounded by all kinds of good karma – they’re even officially sanctioned by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. No wahoo curse there.

    Interested in knowing more about Clemson? I’m not even going to waste my time. You can learn about Clemson’s finest on Twitter @ClemsonMakeouts, @ClemsonPassouts, @ClemsonParties, @ClemsonSquirrel, and @CU_Slam.

    Other Picks Include:

    Arkansas +27.5 vs. Alabama – Travis Benjamin may catch rabbits (http://goo.gl/YBs35w) but Ivan Thomas, a high school defensive-lineman is the only guy out there who’s catching wild hogs these days (http://goo.gl/uVzlT6), and seeing as Thomas won’t be NCAA untill he joins Texas Tech next year- the Razorbacks will be free from total persecution and at the very least won’t lose that game by that much.

    Wait- wasn’t there football player who catches wild boars with his bare hands? Yes, they would be Kaluka Maiava – a linebacker, formerly of the Cleveland Browns, now with the Raiders. Forget drafting SEC players – I want the Browns to draft only players who can hunt and capture their own game.

    Akron -7 vs. Miami of Ohio – Two words to describe the RedHawks, hot mess. I almost became a leadership consultant for my sorority, but I didn’ and Miami of Ohio is the reason. The same year I was applying was the year my sorority on their campus was put on probation for reprehensible actions during and after a formal. My sisters and their dates not only trashed the venue but urinated on historical artifacts. I simply couldn’t imagine what sort of consulting I could provide to that demographic and put my professional sorority girl dreams on hold.

    Illinois +12.5 vs. Badgers – Because I can.

    Bills +7.5 vs. Dolphins – This is a conference game folks, it’s gonna be a close one.

    49ers -4 vs. Titans – Yeah, yeah, yeah, it’s in Tennessee but they’re still out a quarterback and the 49ers are not that much less of a superbowl team than they were last year. 49ers win by 6 (points that Phil Dawson kicks.)

  29. Clemson +3 over Florida St
    UCLA +6 over Stanford ***
    Missouri +3.5 over Florida
    Eagles -2.5 over Cowboys
    Steelers -2.5 over Ravens
    Falcons -7 over Bucs

    *** UCLA is a legit contender for the BCS. They’ve been quietly creeping up the pools all year and have been unnoticed in the PAC 12 thanks to Oregon and Stanford. Stanford proved last week they aren’t the powerhouse of previous years by slipping to Utah. UCLA pushed Stanford to the end last year and a missed field goal in the PAC 12 title game that resulted in a 3 point loss. This year’s Bruins team is even better. They have a bunch of talent on the defensive side with the d-line guys who will end up in the NFL. This strength up front can neutralize the area where Stanford usually dominates its opponents. On the offensive side they have depth everywhere (9 different players with a touchdown reception so far this year) and the QB Hundley has been spectacular in his sophomore season. When UCLA wins this game out right, their date with the Ducks next weekend could be to get into the BCS title game.

  30. squeekycleen says:

    Essay play: Cincinnati Bengals. Yep, right back with the Bengals. The public just loves the Lions. Stafford, Johnson, Bush, passing! Suh! Sacks! And they are playing at home. And only laying a point! This opportunity must look amazing. Again, we will buck conventional wisdom and go with the Bungles, who I think are still undervalued at this point. They should be able to get after Stafford with the front seven and hopefully Dalton can get the ball to a motivated AJ Green. This has been an incredible year for me so far, and its no surprise since the overall contest numbers are atrocious. When you win, I lose. It’s pretty simple. But 2013 is not the square fest 2011 and 2012 were. Instead, its been a contrarian free-for-all in the mode of 2006. But I digress, Bungles it is for the essay.

    Other regular plays:
    Washington Redskins
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Minnesota Vikings
    USC Trojans

    All play:
    Florida State Seminoles

    Really don’t like either card this week, probably will not go wild with real plays. Always best to play conservative with the lead and not spill your profits into the street.

  31. deputyglitters says:

    FSU -3 @ Clemson
    Browns +9.5 vs. Packers
    Texans +6.5 @ Chiefs
    Bears PK @ Washington
    Chargers -7.5 @ Jags

    Broncos -6 @ Colts **

    Since it’s probably not acceptable to simply write “Peyton will shove it up Irsay’s ass” a thousand times over, I’ll have to come up with something else to thrown down here. This is an emotional pick more than anything. Denver’s defense isn’t very good, but is ranked much worse than they are in reality thanks to that arena game against the Cowboys. Trent Richardson really does suck, and the country will finally get to see it live. Without a decent running game to keep Peyton off the field, and without the horses to keep up, I don’t think they can match Denver the way the Cowboys did on the turf in Dallas. There will be no dogs called off here–this is going to look a lot like that hard-to-watch scene in Django.

  32. So, I didn’t get to pick the SeaChickens over Ohio’s state bird in the desert last night. It would have been my essay, but still plenty of games on the slate this weekend. So, let’s start with another Seattle team that should leave this currently frigid desert happy…

    ***Washington (+3) at Arizona State***
    Let me get this straight, ASU loses to the Irish on a neutral field, then stomps Colorado, and we’re going to say the Devils are 3 points better at home than the Huskies, who, unlike ASU, hung with Stanford in Palo Alto and turned in a noble effort against the Ducks at home. The Sun Devils do thing similarly to Oregon, but without anything near the talent level up front, so count on Justin Wilcox to take the game away from Marion Grice and force Taylor Kelly to win with his arm. Unless they can slow down Bishop Sankey, and that’s going to require a monster effort from Jaxon Hood, this could get ugly for the home team. Washington wins by a lot and spoils homecoming in Tempe.

    Toledo (-8.5) vs Navy

    Texas A & M (-12.5) vs Auburn

    *Florida State (-3) at Clemson*

    Dolphins -7.5 vs Bills

    Ravens (+2.5) at Steelers

  33. jimkanicki says:

    1. ***@ECU -22.5 USM
    We’re deep enough into the season where we all should have a favorite worst team identified. FHCFrye is on WMU; GRR traditionally likes Idaho in that role; I think EMU belongs in the convo. But my nominee for worst team in CFB is the loser of last week’s Suck Bowl against FIU — The USM Golden Eagles. They’re 0-6 this year; 0-12 last year; that’s 0-18 since Larry Fedora left. But that’s not the whole story. To me, the worst team, thus the best pigeon, is also the one with the worst offense. USM rates here at 12.2 points per game (#120th). They’re horrible in total offense, rush offense, pass efficiency, rush defense, pass defense, scoring defense.. you get the idea. They’re also dead last in turnover margin. Meanwhile, ECU sports a top 10 pass offense, good rush defense.. pretty strong across the board. They played VaTech tough at home (beat UNC and MTSU on the road).. 22.5 in Greenville shouldnt be a problem.

    2. AP: FSU -3 @Clemson Coin-flip. Should be a great game. Just happen to think FSU is special this year.

    3. GSU +16.5 @TxSt Since I’m the only player here who unearthed that former successful BC coach, later blackballed failed Jets HC candidate Jeff Jagodzinski is now GSU’s OC… it was bothersome to lose against GSU last week and with them running a crisp little offense against Troy. Maybe they’ve figured something out there.

    4. UMD -6.5 @Wake Wake is coming off a bye week so Jim Grobe has had an extra week to prepare. This favors Maryland.

    5. @Bama -27.5 Ark Brutal stretch of games for the Hogs (TAMU, Fla, SCAR, Bama) and the wheels are falling off. Don’t overthink this.

    6. Browns +9.5 @Packers This year’s Browns team is not ok being counted out. Sheard return is major add; Pack without Matthews, Bulaga, Cobb, Brad Jones, Starks. They start a 4th round rookie at left tackle (Bakhtiari) even allowing for Rodgers’ quick read/release that matchup says Kruger should be looking at his biggest impact game. Jarrett Boykin looks to be their #2 WR this week so Haden just needs to be all on top of Jordy Nelson. Weeden is a nightmare, yes, but the Pack’s d-front (minus Matthews) is not in the same class as Lions’.. nowhere near.

  34. @usfcollin says:

    FSU -3 over Clemson: Jameis is the real deal, and 80,000 drunk, angry fans with butts very clenched due to their history won’t intimidate him. It’s not a Clemsoning because they’re a dog even though they’re at home, but there’s no way that entire stadium doesn’t go full ’03 Cubs when one little thing goes wrong.

    Sakerlina -7 over Tennessee. OBC doesn’t make statements like he did this week unless he’s very assured of victory. That’s decades of OBC watching coming in handy here. Oh, and Clowney back? Clowney back.

    Maryland -6.5 over Wake. BREAKING: Wake still sucks. Don’t let a flukey win over a choking NC State fool you… this is still a really bad football team. And Maryland, after almost blowing it against the Hoos and getting Upper GI’ed against FSU, doesn’t suck three weeks in a row. Randy Edsall might be a disingenuous prick, but he’s a disingenuous prick that doesn’t have his team play three bad games consecutively.

    Stanford -6 over UCLA. I’m big on Brett Hundley and he could win this game by himself, but he won’t because Stanford still controls their own destiny and they’re not going to blow this at home after last weeks shocker. Shaw is too good a coach to let that happen.

    Food -17.5 over NMSU. New Mexico State lost 66-17 to a terrible New Mexico team in their last game. They are 0-5 and I might lay even money they’ll be 0-12 this season without even looking at the balance of their schedule. They are a Godforsaken football team that might not beat Chuckycraters high school alma mater. Food is full of smart kids that look at lines, and Food can run the ball. Food is going to lay it on thick here.

    Essay: Oregon State -10 over Cal. Oregon State can lay the damn woodshed to everyone in the Pac-12 that’s not their hated neighbor. It’s amazing that Nike has allowed the Beavers to get this good… I think Phil Knight might pull them off the swoosh teat any day now. How can you put a team that lost to an FCS team that plays on a field of blood (Google Eastern Washington’s field) in a BCS game? Well if they only lose again to Oregon, I think it would be the weirdest 10-2 team that could get consideration for an at-large bid ever. They would have lost to an FCS team and a bitter rival that’s playing for the national championship and that’s it. So bizarre.

    OSU throws it everywhere early and often (433 yards per game), and Cal can’t stop a nosebleed (allows 321 yards a game through the air). The over isn’t allowed in this contest, but that might be an even safer bet. Sean Mannion has it figured out, and he’s got a running game that can keep the pressure off him.

    If someone laid me 80 at even money, I would still take the over on the Civil War right now and just hope it wasn’t a monumental rainstorm this year. As an aside Sonny Dykes is going to be good at Cal. He had a really fun team at La Tech last year that Skip Holtz is currently destroying, but it was a great hire (I really wanted USF to make a run at him). This will be the last season they lay double digits at home in the Pac-12 to anyone but Oregon or Rebuilt USC for awhile.

    • chuckycrater says:

      For the record, that would be Plant High School, with four state titles since 2006 and producer of Aaron Murray, Orson Charles, and Cornelius Gallon. Maybe the best high school program in Florida.

  35. ALL PLAY: Florida State -3 vs. Clemson

    Not entirely sold on Clemson’s ability to keep drives moving and I think FSU will blanket Sammy Watkins and make someone else try to beat them. I watched last year’s game very closely so I could scout FSU for my now-former blog, and they really clowned Clemson to the tune of 650-some yards. The score was deceptively close because Chad Morris emptied the entire bag of tricks and most of them worked.

    Stanford -6 vs. UCLA
    Oklahoma State -7 vs. TCU
    Ball State -18.5 vs. ROW ROW ROW YOUR BOAT GENTLY TOWARDS 0-12
    Jets +4 vs. Patriots (trusting the stinky fish)

    ESSAY: Oregon State -10 vs. California

    I think I’ve found my weakness in this contest. At triple value, it’s implied that the essay is supposed to be your lock of the week, but sometimes I’m turning my back on them because I don’t think I can write an essay about some of these games. Case in point: If gambling was legal where I live, I would have bet real money on Boise State covering 7 points against a Chuckie Keeton-less Utah State last week. That line was insane. But I didn’t make it the essay because I couldn’t come up with 150 words about that game. Not that anyone could have predicted that my eventual essay would go up in flames because Texas rose up and walloped Oklahoma, but still.

    I was actually pretty solid on my Oregon State pick last week, inexplicably giving a point and a half to a sketchy Washington State team that they pulled away from in an impressive/hilarious display of promptly cashing in turnover after turnover. The Beavers have the #1 offense in the country and California comes into this game at #123 in defense, out of 125 teams. I think the Bears got a lot of credit for not playing terribly against Northwestern and Ohio State, but the bottom has fallen out on them lately. Also they lost to the aforementioned Wazzu Cougars by 22 points. Oregon State’s defense is at least credible enough to get a few stops. I don’t think this will be a complete blowout, but I have a hard time seeing California keep this game close enough to cover. Call it 48-27 or something.

  36. bobby_slick says:

    Purdue +26.5
    Northwestern -12.5
    Clemson +3
    Mizzou +3.5
    Pats -4 ***
    Browns +9.5

    Geno and the Jets were lucky to be playing in the pouring rain the first time around and lucky that Brady hadn’t had time to develop some chemistry with his young weapons. Ridley looked to be on his game for the first time last week against a tough Saints D and Brady looked like himself again. My boy Kenbrel looks like the downfield threat these guys have been missing since Moss several years back. I think the Pats still have a lot to prove and this game is BIG for them. I fully expect Brady to take it to the Jets and I think they try and run it up against Rex. Geno has shown some glimpses but at the end of the day a Belichik coached team is going to confuse the rookie and cause a lot of problems for him

    For the love of god I need an essay hit…

  37. CapitalGG says:

    Week 8:

    All-play: Clemson +3 v. Florida St: Clemson a 3-pt dog at home in a game I just assume they will lose because Clemson. It’s deja vu all over again. I won’t be fooled again.
    1. Cardinals +6.5 v. Seahawks: Smells of skanky fish and I love to take points with the home team on Thursday nights.
    2. UConn +13.5 @ Cincinnati: Stanky fish POTW. Cincy is not 2 TDs better than anyone. Not even UConn.
    3. No. Illinois -15.5 @ Central Michigan: I understand why Central looks like the right play, but this feels like a letdown for CMU and a bounceback for NIU.
    4. Texas A&M -12.5 v. Auburn: Johnny Football should be at least a 2 TD favorite here, so there is some value here.

    “Knock. Knock”
    “Who’s there?”
    “Red line.”
    “Red line who?”
    “The playoff red line, you idiot!”
    “Huh?”
    “Yeah, 3 weeks ago you were closer to the bottom of the standings and now you’re knocking on the playoff door.”
    “Really? How did that happen?”
    “Simple really, you started hitting your essay picks.”
    “Nice.”
    “Right. Do your remember what brought you here?”
    “Well there was that bizarre conversation with my guru.”
    “Of course. And what did he tell you?”
    “MACtion! Then he threw up and might have died.”
    “Yes. MACtion. Always MACtion. You have to stick to your MACtion.”
    “True dat. So who’s the play this week?”
    “Toledo versus the Naval Academy.”
    “Tempting, but I don’t feel right betting against the military and that option attack is tough to prepare for.”
    “Good point. You can stay away. How about Ohio and Eastern Michigan.”
    “Love betting against the boys for Ypsi. But Frankie S’s boys have been a real up-and-down shit show. So, nah.”
    “Fair enough. Buffalo has been pretty solid and they play UMass.”
    “Interesting. I wish I knew something about UMass. Hard to gage if that number is too big or just right. If only I knew UMass…”
    “You’re already on Northern Illinois over Central Michigan.”
    “Bet against Direction Michigan, I always say.”
    “So you’re gonna love this one.”
    “Yes?”
    Ball So Hard State against Western Michigan!”
    “Yes. The Number?”
    Eighteen and a half.”
    “So I can take the team that has treated me oh so well this year? The team that started my run a few weeks ago? My boy, Pete Lembo? Against the worst team in the MAC? And I don’t have to give more than 3 TDs? Where do I sign up?”
    “In the Open Thread, dummy. You do this every week, remember?”
    “I knew that…”

  38. FTCMikeD says:

    @Michigan -7.5 over Indiana
    Wisconsin -12.5 over @Illinois
    AP: @Clemson +3 over FSU

    Bears PK over @Skins
    *****@Chiefs -6.5 over Texans
    Ravens +2.5 over @Steelers

    *****First off, the Texans are 0-6 ATS. Second, they go up against probably the toughest D in the league right now in the Chiefs. They will be all over TJ Yates, or Case Keenum, whoever they decide to start. Arrowhead wants to reassert itself as the toughest place to play, they broke the sound record last week, its no longer in Seattle. Alex Smith is playing mistake free football. Chiefs win by 7 or more.

  39. Start me off with:

    Seahawks -6.5 (Essay)

    As much as I am known for my anti-Garrett Gilbert rants, this week I am taking to writing about another football personality that makes my blood boil: Pete Carroll.

    Here is a man who goes apeshit nuts when he’s up by 25 points with under two minutes to go and challenges a perceived fumble. Here’s a man who jumps around like a little girl on Pixie Stix when his team wins a professional football game. I’m sorry, perhaps I’m old. Tom Landry never did that. Vince Lombardi never would have embarrassed himself acting like Pete Carroll. Bottom line is that Pete Carroll is that uber-competitive guy who hid your textbook the night before the exam to get an edge on the chemistry final.

    As much as I can’t stand that man….he’s got a good team and they’re going against Carson Palmer who is perhaps the Garrett Gilbert of the NFL. For that alone, I should lay the 6.5.

    Then again, I’m 0-for-the-season on essay picks so y’all should just pick against this one and you will be golden.

    Clemson +3

  40. Florida St -3 vs Clemson (All Play)
    Florida -3.5 vs Missouri
    UCLA +6 vs Stanford
    Iowa St +34 vs Baylor
    Patrious -4 vs Jets

    Broncos -7 vs Colts (Essay)
    I think Jim Irsay is losing his mind. Why are you taunting the best QB your franchise has ever had, sorry Johnny U. The guy is becoming a joke…..how does that Trent Richardson deal look so far? He thinks he knows better than everyone else and is heading towards Al Davis territory. There will be no mercy from Peyton this Sunday night. He will be running it up. Losing to Miami at home and San Diego aren’t horrible loses for Indy, but Dallas is the only team to come within double digits of the Broncos and they had to score 48 pts. Broncos by a bunch.

  41. FlyHighCharlieFrye says:

    All play: Clemson +3
    Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 at Detroit

    And…bring on the MACtion

    Kent State +6.5 at South Alabama
    Ohio -17 at Eastern Michigan
    Toledo -8.5 vs. Navy

    Ball State -18.5

    Going against Worstern Michigan worked last week, so why not again? The Broncos are a total mess and now must play the only quarterback IN THE COUNTRY who’s thrown for 300+ in every week a week after losing 33-0 to Buffalo. In that game Western was so bad that a first down inside the 20 turned into a third and 45 — 45! — and none of the penalties even involved holding Khalil Mack. The bottom of the MAC is really bad, folks, and this is about the time of year that disastrous seasons get worse before they get better. Ball State scores a bunch; Western is playing a freshman QB. I could go on, but every number suggests that Western is one of the worst teams in the country and the way Ball State is playing suggests that 20 is too low.

  42. zarathustra says:

    I have had tonight’s nfl game circled all week. A banged up and overvalued seattle team traveling on short week to an (undervalued) cardinal team. I have been salivating for this home dog. But…last week I came up a torturous half point shy of a lobster with a failed pitt two point conversion after a miracle last minute touchdown that should have led me through the back door. I’ve had a run of good picks both here and in real life. Time to fade myself:
    Seahawks -6.5 over Cardinals

  43. Central Mi +15.5 vs NIU
    Houston U +10 vs BYU
    Boys +2.5 vs Eagles
    Jets +4 vs Pats
    AP: Clemson -3 vs FSU
    EP: Bears pk vs Skins

    It’s time for some Cheddar Bay jeopardy!
    Alex: A racist slur, commonly used to depict Native Americans.
    What is Redskins?
    Alex: Correct Nick, select again!
    Alex: Diagnosed with borderline personality disorder, this NFL player started a charity to fight mental illness.
    Who is Brandon Marshall?
    Alex: Correct again.
    I’ll take Crazy Sports Team owners for $600.
    Alex: This owner sued the local city paper on a story he never read and his picture is often sketched over with devil horns.
    Who is Dan Snyder?
    Alex: In a week 7 NFL matchup, this team will travel to DC and lay waste to the Redskins.
    Who are da Bears?
    Alex: Oh, I’m sorry, that’s incorrect Nick, we were looking for THE Bears, not DA Bears.

  44. CleveLandThatILove says:

    Can I have Seahawks -6.5 over Cards for tomorrow.

    And JK, sounds like you may need a Medrol DosePak Rx if you don’t have one already.

  45. clevta says:

    Pick #1- Arizona +6.5. The number of times Seattle has won on the road by >6 in the last 11 tries? 0. Same Seattle team went into Arizona in the opener last season and lost outright by 4. Oh and there’s that little 58-0 beatdown Seattle put on the Cards at the end of last season. Slight revenge game on a short week. 6.5 is a bad number in my opinion. 3.5/4 is the better number.

  46. Week 8 Picks

    It’s been a struggle so far this year so it is time to turn to the MAC and try to start the long journey to get above the red line. Funny thing while I was exploring cyberspace this week, did you know there is actually a cheddarbay.com? I had to laugh when I saw it because yes I am a Florida Gators fan after that last bowl game. Then I clicked into the site…yeah…we need to pool some money and take that name over.

    WKU (Loss) – When Bobby Petrino goes interviewing shortly I hope an AD pulls a tape of this game. A comically bad performance in a game they could have put away in the 2nd quarter.

    All Play – Clemson (+3) over FSU – When in doubt take the points and the better QB.

    Buffalo (-20) over UMass – A friendly reminder to Joe Banner to please save a 6th or 7th round pick for Branden Oliver. I love this kid.

    NIU (-15.5) over CMU – The Home/Away splits with NIU will make your head hurt. This is a MUCH better team on the road and Central still is not good at football.

    Bears (PK) over Redskins – With all the uncertainty surrounding the Browns QB spot next year and the sheer amount of possible 1st round options would it be crazy to offer one of our first round picks to Washington for Cousins? Will Washington ever get better value? This has bothered me all week…is Cousins not a competent younger Hoyer? Never mind…just bank the money and throw it all at Cutler.

    Essay Pick

    Sometimes you have to get a little reckless. This essay qualifies as reckless.

    Common opponents are 33-10.

    They need a break. The tide has to turn eventually.

    Last road win was October 18, 2008.

    Last FBS win was November 26, 2010.

    The theme of this game is AVENGE DOUG PENNO!

    I am still bitter about the 2007 MAC Basketball Title game when Doug Penno threw up a ridiculous bank shot prayer after the Miami of Ohio grad working the time clock at Quicken Loans Arena made sure he had enough time to get his prayer off. It might be the most depressing live sporting event I have ever been at in my life. Really no real rivalry or animosity towards Miami and it’s hard to get mad at them when they have the most heart breaking defeat I have ever seen at any level of sport (The 2009 National Title game vs Boston is the most gut wrenching thing I have ever witnessed).

    Saturday it is time. Break out the champagne. The drought ends Saturday.

    Akron (-7) over Miami

    • jimkanicki says:

      If Browns manage to get Cousins I’ll take back all my punt the season posts and apologize; but they won’t because they’re punting this season.

      Ditto that on Brandon Oliver. And yes also on the MU/BU game in 09.

  47. bupalos says:

    Booooo…. The Indy-Denver matchup is much the more interesting…and personally interesting to Browns fans.

    • jimkanicki says:

      took a look at all these: broncos at colts, fsu at clemson, usc at nd, and ucla at stanford. initially i liked the peyton returns game too but after i checked out how fsu/clemson rank on both sides of the ball i feel pretty good with it.

      • clevta says:

        I like the FSU/Clemson selection. I’m pretty much going to guarantee we’ll see very close to a 50/50 split in action which is always a good thing. Having 80+% on one side (OSU/Browns) every week seems like a waste of time. DEN/Indy is intriguing as well but either one is a good idea imo.

    • clevelandfrowns says:

      FSU/Clemson is as big of a football game as there will be all year.

  48. acto says:

    ****AP**** and essay
    FSU -3 over Clemson I know I have a bit of a penchant for belittleing the importance of a Fricasseed Quarterback. This time I am jumping on the band wagon, (thank you Carrie Nation) and supporting a quarterback. Although I shall only support him in college, talent changes when being pursued by very fast big uglies. Jameis Winston and Tajh Boyd are both terrific. I am going with the faggot on this one. (Do not get up in arms, I learned long ago that a faggot is a cigarette in the Kings English. So Winston/cigarette/faggot is my choice for this pick.) I like Boyd too so I would not be angry if the Browns used a 6th round pick on either one of these talented young men. Clemson is terrific at getting into the backfield and disrupting or ending plays, I am confident that the staff at FSU will have Winston tastes good like a cigarette should ready for their attacks. I only saw about ten minutes of Clemson’s gap jumping defense and I loved it, but if you live by the elongated cutlery, you die by the elongated cutlery. FSU has the talent to take on the gap jumps and blow them off the ball.
    My only caveat here is that FSU is not terrific in pass protection. If Clemson could get a lead and then force FSU into passing situations the Tiger pass ruch could extinguish even the last burning ember of Winston’s chances.
    I am of course, at least a little worried about Grady Jarrett and Vic Beasley. However as I see this game shaping up, they will be going against talent they have yet to see and the FSU game plan shall have the ball flying over their heads before they make their famous second moves.

    Cowboys +2.5 over Eagles
    Miami -8.5 over North Carolina
    UCF +13 over Teddy Bilgewater and Louis
    Rice -17.5 over New Mex State
    MSU -26.5 over the beloved Boilermakers

  49. cwonder23 says:

    AP: Clemson +3 vs FSU
    Ole Miss +8.5 vs LSU
    Bears PK @ Wash
    Eagles -2.5 vs ‘Boys
    Titans +4 vs 49ers
    Essay: Miami (FL) -8.5 @ UNC

    Me: “Hey, what’s your name?”
    Cheddar Bay: “Cheddar Bay”
    Me: “That’s nice, you look like a Cheddar Bay. We’re all in the football picking business. Let me tell you why I suck at picking football games. Let’s say I go into a week of picks, and let’s say I’m even remotely confident in my picks. Well then I get all excited. I’m like Jojo the idiot circus boy with a pretty new pet.”

    [reaches down and picks up a sheet with this week’s lines]

    Me: “Now, the pet is my potential Lobsterfest. Hello there pretty little pet, I love you. And then I stroke it, and I pet it, and I massage it. Hehe I love it, I love my little naughty pet.”

    [pokes the line sheet playfully]

    Me: “You’re naughty! And then I take my pet and I go….”

    [Makes ripping noises as he tears up sheet into tiny pieces]

    Me: [Wailing loudly, making all of Cheddar Bay look] “Aaaaahhhhh, I killed it! I killed this week’s picks! And that’s when I blow it. That’s when people like us have gotta forge ahead, Cheddar Bay. Am I right?”
    Cheddar Bay: “God, you suck.”


    Seriously, I’m pretty bad at this stuff. Miami has covered 4 straight and North Carolina is 1-4 ATS this year. I basically know nothing about either team but have to take some chances. Miami has proven they can put up points and UNC looks like they are waiting for next year. Miami moving to 6-0 would be impressive. Good luck to everyone this week. Sorry to any Canes’ fans as they will probably end up losing this game after I just picked them.

  50. clevta says:

    Skanky Leg time. 17-7-2 year to date, 2-1-1 last week. As Kanick pointed out last night, La Laff would’ve fit the profile and won outright as a 3 pt dog.

    NCAAF:

    1. UCONN +13.5 v Cincy (Line opened Cincy -16, now -13.5. 69% of public on CIN) Pick: UCONN
    2. CMU -15.5 v N Ill (Line opened N Ill -17, now -15.5. 66% of public on N Ill) Pick: CMU

    NFL:

    1. NYJ +4 v NE (Line opened -6, now -4. 76% of public on NE) Pick: NYJ
    2. TENN +4 v SF (Line opened SF -6, now -4. 71% of public on SF) Pick: TENN

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