IMPORTANT UPDATE:
Cheddar stalwarts CheddarClay, Probitive Favorite, CapGG, and Brosef seen at Bengals game tailgate.
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^^^ Brings me sheet music for obscure Godfather piano pieces. (Click to hear.)
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LATE LINE: AFA +10 at Nevada.
THIS WEEKS LINES ARE LINKED HERE.
THIS WEEK’S ALL PLAY IS WISCONSIN +7.5 AT OHIO STATE.
IPAD/MOBILEDEVICE USERS: THE STANDINGS ARE LINKED HERE.
AND REMEMBER TO DOUBLE CHECK MY ENTRY OF YOUR PICKS ON THIS SPREADSHEET.
Well that’s a lot of capital letters.
Hey ladies and gents, this is your Cheddar Bay open thread for week five. Treat it lovingly.
Well done on the LOBSTERFEST to player It’s Only Money. His winning ticket looked like this:
- Browns +6 – essay
- Bengals +6 – allplay
- Lville -42.5
- OSU -49.5
- Wisc -24.5
- Mizzou -3.5
Oh sure, it looks easy and smart now.
And speaking of the Browns, I seem to have staked out a position on Joe Banner and his plan for 2013 which is somewhat unpopular and that has been challenged on several fronts. (I see you Zara!) I apologize for not tending to this with replies or a follow up post… but hey, mom’s in town. She came out from Colorado to play my piano and see some Seacoast and of course making sure I’m good. So salty Banner critiques are on hold for just a bit. Having a morning Matcha Tea with someone playing “the mattresses song” from The Godfather renders one without salt.
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@ClevTA’s Skanky Fish Picks.
Skank Time: 8-2-1 since inception using Cheddar lines, 7-3 with real time wagers. True to the title of this post, there are a few special “hold your nose” picks below but just remember awful teams cover too.
College:
- Idaho +7.5 v Temple (Temple opened -9.5 down to 7, 65% of public on Temple) Pick: Idaho
- USC +5.5 v ASU (ASU opened -7 down to 4.5, 64% of public on ASU) Pick: USC
- Buffalo +1 v UCONN (UCONN opened -2.5 down to PK, 64% of public on UCONN) Pick :Buffalo
NFL:
- Rams +4 v SF (SF opened -4 down to 3, 68% of public on SF) Pick: Rams
- Browns +5 v Cinci (Opened Cinci -5 down to 4, 69% of public on Cinci) Pick: Browns
- Jax +9.5 v Indy (Opened Indy -9.5 down to 7.5,75% of public on Indy) Pick Jax
- Buffalo +3.5 v Baltimore (Opened Balt -4 down to 3, 67% of public on Balt) Pick: Buffalo
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Okay Cheddars, we’re due to regress progress to the mean eventually, but still we batted .417 last week so:
Let’s be careful out there.
kanick 
Great..in that Cheddar Bay pick is the infamous Dubbythe1’s neck…
I’ve been pretty much completely tied down by work plus the rainbows and unicorns flashing in my eyes, but just squeezing under the kickoff wire for the last game of the week for an essay. Hopefully it will be approved despite its late entry. Certainly its no loss to the field not to have this essay sooner, because its not based on any rational premise, and I can’t even remember who’s playing. I want whoever ctil took…why? Because in a week as positive as any in recent Cleveland sports memory, it would make no sense for the most Cleveland of cheddar players to score the lobster, and I remember seeing she was close and that she had picked the Monday nighter. Good enough for her is more than Han good enough for me this week. GO TEAM CTIL!
Lol.. ok, that’s the SAINTS. You’re pulling for the Saints tonite Bup.
Your
Exec Cmtesorry, Council of Elders will take this up when we next convene on Mt. Olympus.Ha ha, thanks for the extra push, I’m sure that’s what did it.
That of course should have read “no sense…NOT to score the Lobster…” GO TEAM DOUBLE NEGATIVE!!
AND CONGRATS TO TEAM CTIL!!!
Need the Washington football team, chargers, falcons
thatsfine
My NFL pick: Browns +5
Cheddar Bay Moms’s Week story: We went to see Browns/Bengals at the old Riverfront Stadium, I was probably 11 or 12 at the time. We were getting hassled a little bit (this was right around the “you don’t live in Cleveland you live in Cincinnati) comment by Sam Wyche). During the pre-game there was some cheesy graphic on the scoreboard showing a tiger claw with the accompanying “ROAR”. My mom stands up and yells “Hey Cincinnati, scratch my ass!!”. Of course the Browns won that game. I just talked to my mom on the phone. She is on her way to Chicago and is pissed because she might miss kickoff. Smelly fish + mom on the phone + Mom’s week + Browns = cover.
on mt phone driving back from columbus and missed my college chance but that won’t sway me so here are pro picks
pit -1
bal -3.5
cin -5
was +3
ari +2.5
the bucs are as dumpster firey as dumpster fires get and even though the cardinals can’t run the ball at all this game is theirs to lose. everyone in tampa hates schiano including it seems a number of players and the offensive game plan is a disaster. now the usc job is open and of course schiano gets mentioned right off the bat because why not follow up one disappointing hire who never deserved his status for another? schiano is not long for tampa and this game should expedite that departure a bit more swiftly.
Bills +3.5 over Ravens
Saints -6.5 over Dolphins
Browns +5 over Bengals. You’ve got me, BH. #AMDG
**Broncos -11.5 over (who is it this week?)
**Greg Cosell over at Yahoo Sports did a rodofdisaster type X’s and O’s breakdown of 2 plays from Monday night’s game that illustrate why Peyton Manning is such a master. Blew my mind a little bit this morning. It’s been said that he can recall in detail specific plays from his days at Tennessee many years and many records ago. Crazy smart. John Elway was crazy smart to invest in the man and surround him with everything he needs to succeed.
The Broncos are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games. They’ll win today, but by how much? It’s going to take a superior defense (or an act of God) to slow Manning down. Philly’s defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL, around 26th according to one site I checked. The Eagles’ only chance to make a game of it is to keep Manning off the field, and get the ball in the end zone 6 or 7 or 8 times. With Michael Vick’s erratic tendencies, and Denver’s 12th ranked defense, I don’t see this happening. The Eagles’ offensive unit will be a hypoxic mess if Chip doesn’t dial it back a few clicks given the altitude, but I don’t see that happening either. He’s crazy smart too, but heavy on the crazy.
Detroit Lions -2.5
Last week was far from my worst Cheddar Bay excursion, points-wise – three of six, losses on the essay and the All-Play – but it felt like it, perhaps because picking a 5.5-point favorite as an essay pick and then watching them lose 38-0 is a thoroughly humbling experience. And alas, if only “the Rams plus 7” meant “the Rams will score 7” I would’ve been in business. The only consolation from that latter pick is that it meant there was no way in hell I was picking them this Thursday. Anyway:
All-Play: Wisconsin (win) – went to bed when the score was 31-14, so this was a pleasant surprise when I was awoken by an incontinent puppy at 3 AM (which is not normally a setting that is conducive to pleasant surprises).
Falcons -2 over Patriots – not enough points
Steelers -1 over Vikings – bet against the QB switch, even though someone is probably going to win this game
Cardinals +2.5 over Bucs – ditto: Glennon’s top two receivers are injured and even if they weren’t consensus seems to be that he may well suck, Cardinals were completely outclassed by the Saints but dear god surely they can hang with the rookie.
Saints -6.5 over Dolphins – I’m a sucker for a half-point, Cameron Wake is out.
Essay: Chiefs -5 over Giants – Make me my (figurative) money back, Eli, because I’m still furiously mortified after last week. Of course, I can see this ending horribly as I spite-pick against NYG for the rest of the season while they go on another improbable playoff run and defy all the doubters. But I cannot go against the evidence of my own two eyes: the Chiefs are better than the Panthers and Glenn Dorsey/Dontari Poe/Justin Houston/whoever-is-left-unblocked-once-those-guys-are-accounted-for are going to have a field day. Tamba Hali! Probably Tamba Hali. The game’s in Arrowhead, which probably still counts for something. I feel bad picking against the Giants because it still seems to me that they ought to be good, but this is the point of the season where you have to adjust to these things. The Giants offense may have looked sprightly in Week 1 putting up 31 points against Dallas, but week 1 was a long time ago. Oh, and they still managed to lose that game by five.
Was a few beers deep by the time the afternoon came around yesterday, and forgot to pick the OSU game. Whoops. For what it’s worth, the Bucks cover that game if Kenny G plays. Just sayin.
SEAHAWKS -3 @ TEXANS. Points are at a premium when you’re playing seattle. Win’s are tough to come by when Russ-Russ is thrashing your defense up and down the field. Seahawks are superbowl bound.
PATRIOTS +2 @ FALCONS. Pat’s defense is underrated. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady.
$$$COWBOYS -2.5 @ CHARGERS$$$
Romo wasn’t built in a day. In order for these Boys to make a move and get ahead, he’s gonna have to drive the bus. Cowboys have been injury prone and they have a tough schedule down the stretch (Denver, New Orleans, Chicago, Green Bay), so to me they go as far as Tony wants to take them. And to be completely honest, if I had my choice between playing inside Jerry’s World in Arlington or in the perpetually sunny and 70 that San Diego offers, I’d want the outdoors. Besides, the Chargers have at least 2 more losses before they live up to their typical early season bed-shitting. Ta Ta for now.
“Romo wasn’t built in a day”
Please do not be offended if I use the hell out of that line.
Bravo DWha!
Love you DWha.
Giants +5
Colts -9.5
Cowboys -2.5
Steelers -1 (essay)
The Vikings are a full blown clown show. They have the best player in football, but with the surrounding cast and QB situation,it doesn’t matter. This is the type of game Pittsburgh wins. As much as I hate Pittsburgh, at least they have some pride. Much like the Browns last week, look for Pitt to pull out the bag of tricks and find a way to get it done today. Meanwhile, MN will play a conservative game plan with Cassel, and it will get them nowhere. Tomlin may not let his players come back across the pond of they can’t win this shitfest.
Franklin Cheddar pick #5 Wazzu +10.5…SMELLY FISH ALERT! 72% of bets on Stanford yet the line is down to 8.5 at CRIS. I liked this one before but really like it now. Wazzu’s defense is the real deal, I just wish this game was in Pullman. Besides all of my leans for NFL have been shot down by various resources, the sharp plays have been losers this year.
OSU a smelly fish that you all are eating too. 79% and the line drops through a key!
Cheddar pick #6 Steelers -1 This is the game with the least amount of trap in it IMO.
Can’t turn down the points, dammit. Wisconsin tonight for the All-Play; everything else tomorrow.
That voice in my head (pretty sure it’s my mom) says WIsconsin +7.5 over OSU tonight for a point.
Back later with the rest.
Can I also tack on Arizona State -6.5 USC, thanks.
Here goes…
Niners (Win)
New Mexico +2
Wisconsin +7.5
Clemson -29
Browns +5
Saints -6.5***
First things first, I think the Dolphins are overrated. But more than that, their DBs are suspect and I fully expect Brees to be on his game come Monday night. At home, on turf, the Saints are so tough and their D has been outstanding this year. Sean Payton has covered his last 11 games at home and last 7 in primetime. I think Miami is going to have a reality check this week and perhaps be knocked down a peg or two. Big Saints win at home.
Iowa (-1.5) at Minnesota
Clemson (-29) vs Wake Forest
Alabama (-15.5) vs Ole Miss
Washington (-10) vs Arizona
***Ohio State (-7.5) vs Wisconsin***
Seahawks(-3) at Texans
Why Ohio State Covers
I know this is a Cleveland site, or at least a Cleveland based contest, so this is officially me homering up. I know that the Buckeyes aren’t at all battle-tested, but you can’t deny their depth and the level of ease this Urban Meyer team had with lesser competition. That offensive line is somewhat hit and miss, but the backs are so good that marginal talent in the trenches can still beat Wisconsin. Braxton Miller may have some rust, but I’m not sure it’s going to matter. Big test for the Ohio State defensive line, in stopping Gordon and White, but I don’t think Joel Stave can win this game if Ohio State forces the quarterback to beat them by stacking the box.
I’m thinking 28-7/35-14 range for this game, which is good enough to give up the points.
Ohio State
Indy over JAC
Den over PHIL
NO over MIA
KC over NYG
ARI over TB
Shiano might be the worst coach in the long history of the Bucs. This statement really means something if think about who has been here. Bennett, Perkins, Morris. That is some accomplishment. He has driven Freeman’s career into the ground. I cannot remember a starting QB in this league demanding a trade during the fourth week of the season. He is defying team rules to force the Bucs hand. I usually not a supporter o this behavior, but I don’t see another option for Freeman.
The Cards have Carson Palmer. He should win the duel with Glennon. The new Statue of Liberty. His first start in the league. Jackson and Williams have not practiced this week. The Glasers announced they have lifted the black outs for the season. jus in time for Halloween. Enjoy the horror of New Jersey Shore football.
Ball St (-2.5) / Toledo
Oregon St (-11) / Colorado
NC State (-24) / C Michigan
Cowboys (-2.5) / Chargers
Buffalo (+1) / UConn
Wiscy (+7.5) / tOSU
The 7.5 is the difference here. I see this as a one score game, down to the wire. I think the combination of Braxton and Kenny G should make enough plays to win, but closer than the experts think. Wiscy can seriously run the ball and I just haven’t seen that much to love from our D yet. These conference night games are always crazy and almost always come down to the end. Gotta take them points
GEORGIA -2.5 v LSU
HOUSTON -3 vs UTSA
NFL AND ESSAY TO COME LATER
Rodofdisaster…
Wisconsin +7.5
Western Kentucky +1
Stanford -10
Steelers -1
Cardinals +2.5
Essay: Falcons -2
It looks like Gronkwoski is not going to play. Again. Amendola is not going to play. Again. Welker is playing but not for New England. It’s time that the Pats’ chickens have come home to roost. It isn’t that Tom Brady isn’t Tom Brady anymore. It’s that Bill Belichick remains Bill Belichick. It’s the smug arrogance that says he thinks he’s better than everyone else, no– smarter than everyone else. A long time ago, it used to be that the Pats could plug a wide receiver in to play defensive back and ride that patchwork quilt all the way to a Super Bowl. Not now. The fact is that the Pats have not replaced talent (Welker, specifically) with talent. They simply don’t have the tools for Tom Brady to succeed. I expect the Falcons to beat the Pats through the air early and often. This will turn into a track meet that Brady won’t have the horses to stay in.
All Play @ OSU -7.5 Wisc
NIU -3.5 @ Purdue
Miami -19 @ South Florida
OSU -19 @WVU
@ Tenn -4 NYJ
Essay Pick @ Alabama -15.5 Ole Miss
Unlike in prior years, we are going to see that Ole Miss is a pretender early this year. They beat up on an underwhelming Texas team and two cupcakes so far. They just don’t have the weapons to match up against Alabama. ‘Bama was tested against A&M and came out on top. Ole Miss doesn’t have JFF on their sidelines to keep this one close. There will be no stopping TJ Yeldon and AJ McCarron this week. The Alabama defense may get a little test, but there still won’t be anything that the Rebels can do to match the Tide. The game stays close for a couple quarters until Alabama wears them down and takes control.
DQuatts week 5:
Central Florida + 7.5
Purdue +3.5
Ohio State -7.5
Mississippi +15.5
Back for money pick and NFL action tomorrow! Enjoy the weekend!
Ouch….rough Saturday. C’mon Sunday!!
Steelers -1
Browns +5
Why not, Cleveland Browns!?!? After a 0-2 record with the Browns as my money pick, I am rolling with the Dawgs again! I really like this matchup today. I think Cleveland can score the ball, especially against a secondary missing Leon Hall. I think big games from Gordon and Cameron will keep this one exciting. The Bengals got a gift of a “W” last week, and I think Cleveland comes into this one motivated…and excited…and willing to chuck it around 50 times to put points up. Lookout Lake Erie, Browns win outright 31-21!
Ohio state -7.5 over Wisconsin
Nevada -10 over AFA
Bowling Green-15.5 over Akron
Seahawks -3 over Texans
Chiefs-5 over Giants
*** Cowboys -2.5 over Chargers
The Cowboys are coming off an impressive home victory over the Rams. The Dallas defense is much improved and they will make it tough for the Chargers to get it going, which means pressure all day long on Rivers. Manti Te’o is healthy and on the field, but hasn’t had much practice this week and displayed a poor performance in the preseason. Whatever he adds, it won’t be enough to lift Mike McCoy’s improved team past the Cowboys.