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Home » Cheddar Bay Archive » Cheddar Bay 2013 » Cheddar Bay Week 3: Browns +7 at Ravens.

Cheddar Bay Week 3: Browns +7 at Ravens.

This week’s lines are posted here.

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Late lines:  OSU -15.5 at Cal; Ole Miss +3 at Texas.

Reminder:  use the “Current” column for your point spreads, not the “Open” column.

NFL Star Terrell Suggs Chooses Ink, Not Mink

Ball So Hard U will be represented Sunday.

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All-play is Browns -7 at Ravens.

We had three solid candidates for the All-Play this week.  My pref, I admit, was the Niners/Seahawks.  A great case can be made for Bama/TAMU.  But the Chairman Emeritus makes a compelling case for the Browns/Ravens:

Who will have the balls to take those points this week is  far and away the most interesting test of Cheddar Bayers this week.  Bama/A&M would be a second.  Niners/Seahawks is a great game, but I don’t think it’s nearly as compelling an All Play.  You’ll get a lot of “Mangini Mangini Mangini (spoiler alert!)” and the rest surely (at least mostly) just bland rehashing of preseason punditry on one side of the Niners/Seahawks debate or the other.

My ‘thing’ is not wanting to have to bet against the team I’m rooting for.  But that’s my thing and I have lots of things that I won’t inflict upon you up to and including an all-play of SunBelt powers WKU vs. ArkySt. at some point.  (Wait.  Actually I can’t rule that out.)

(And besides:  on second look at the schedule, Wisconsin at Arizona State might could be the best game of the weekend.)

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Sketchy updates this weekend.

Your loyal commissioner is usually on top of the scoring throughout the weekend, taking time out Sunday to catch the Browns (at The Riverside Lounge in Amesbury, Mass if you’re in the neighborhood).

But this weekend the scoring may lag as we’re picking off a low level bucket list item and catching an Army game at Michie Stadium, West Point, NY.  The fact of Stanford playing there is incidental   So look for pateslvrblk and me under the big Kanick logo as shown below.

Screen Shot 2013-09-11 at 11.27.34 AM

Not going to West Point expecting to witness the greatest upset in college football in the last 100 years.
Going because, just look.

Dammit just noticed who’s in front of our seats and I’ve already called the Browns Stadium ushers to make the cadets sit down.

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Drop your picks in the comments below and happy handicapping!


101 Comments

  1. […] I’ve decided to try something new for those out there that are interested.  I’ll call it the Rotten Fish segment. […]

  2. Art Brosef says:

    Browns for the all play.

    Everyone knows all about Andrew Luck, and yes, he is good and will get better. But he looked confused for the majority of the game last week, and while ESPN has them 12th in their power rankings, Vegas has them 21st. This line has been steady all week and 70 percent of the public is on Indy this week (according to Covers). Ill probably buy the hook to be safe, but I look for Miami to make this a game.

    Dolphins +3**

  3. oxr says:

    Yesterday: Oregon (W) and BC (L). Now for some seven-point favorites! Last week the only pro points I got at all were from doing the opposite of this. Maybe the triumph of last week’s underdogs means that the lines will be set too low in compensation, or maybe I just need to hit rock bottom before I start flipping coins next week.

    AP/Essay: Ravens -7 over Browns – To continue last week’s theme, I just can’t bring myself to do the sensible thing and take the points. OK, the Ravens had an utter meltdown in the second half of their opener against a good team on the road (although they led at the half, for what that’s worth), but the Browns ate it raw throughout the Miami game and Weeden still appears to be a liability. Both QBs may be shaky (I am not a believer in the continued viability of last year’s Mutant Playoff Flacco) but we’re betting on magnitude and awfulness of turnovers here. Finally, I’m not a Browns fan, so although I’ll be rooting for them and surrounded by long-suffering friends whom I wish nothing but joy, when the cheddar is down I still have no compunction about picking against them this week.

    Bengals -7 over Steelers – Points points points but the Pouncey injury and the running back situation are both horrible, and for god’s sake the Steelers just lost by this much to Tennessee at home.

    Bears -6.5 over Vikings – I am almost invariably wrong about the Bears but Ponder on the road is just too enticing.

    and finally:

    Rams +7 over Falcons – jinx.

  4. thatsfine says:

    Back to finish off my picks

    thatsfine
    Ravens -7 / Browns – From the $30 million in unused cap space to the 30 or so undrafted free agents picked up after final cuts, the Browns are a team that is not built to compete. Keeping it within a touchdown on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs would be competing.
    49ers +2.5 / Seahawks – The 49ers are the best team in the NFL and they’re getting points.
    Saints -4 / Bucs – N.O. is feeling in top form after opening the season with a win over a last year’s division champ. The Bucs are pretty much feeling the exact opposite after looking completely JV for most of the game in NY, failing to take full advantage of a rookie QB’s first start, and then having an undisciplined pants-shitting play at the very end to give the game away.
    ESSAY: Giants +5.5 / Broncos – The Giants had 6 turnovers against the Cowboys last week, and still had a chance to win the game before that last deflection which turned into a pick 6. The Giants won’t have that many turnovers this week, and Peyton won’t toss 7 TDs. Everyone gushes over Thomas, Decker and Welker. I like Nicks, Cruz, and Randle, too. All 3 of them had 100+ yards receiving vs. the Cowboys. The Giants outgained the Cowboys in total yards 478-331. I think the Giants get the run game back on track and we see a great shootout in what is hopefully the final edition of watching Archie Manning’s reaction to every single incomplete pass for 3+ hours.
    Previous picks (ouch on both)
    Louisville
    Alabama

  5. cleinmpls says:

    Panthers -3
    Browns +7
    Jags +6
    Bucs +4
    Giants +5.5 (essay)

    Seems like an inflated line to me. Last week the Giants went on the road to a pretty good Dallas team, played like shit, and still had a chance to tie the game in the 4th. Yes, Peyton is amazing, but I don’t trust the Denver D on the road against a quality offense. Victor Cruz certainly looked healthy to me last week. Cruz, Nicks and Brandon Myers should all get a lot of work today, especially since Champ Bailey is out for Denver. I just don’t see the Denver defense creating turnovers on the road today. This game should be extremely entertaining with tons of points. Last team with the ball wins. I will take my chances.

  6. Harbaugh Handshakes says:

    Earlier picks:
    Jets (w)
    Michigan (L) wonder if tressel helped with the game plan?
    Browns +7(All play) I think the dolphins are better than their getting credit for and the Ravens really are a lot worse than last yr. the defense misses Reed and Lewis and Ozzie outsmarted himself by trading boldin for a 6th rd pick. I expect the browns to look improved I actually think weeden plays better on the rd. and our line can’t be that bad. I think the browns will lose but only by 3-4.

    Packers -7.5 the packers went toe to toe with the best team in the nfl on the rd last week. RGIII is going to continue to shake off rust as it was clear he doesn’t trust his knee yet. He did look better in the second half but so weeden would’ve too against the vanilla def the eagles went to. Packers will roll in the friendly confines of lambeau field

    Bengals -7 the steelers looked awful last week and the lost two key players in foote and pouncey (karma for his free Hernandez hats incident? I think so) anyway this is an awful steelers team who just got awfuller (new word I just made up) the bengals looked good on the rd last week in a game they should of won. I expect geno and that defensive line to give Big Ben fits. This game shouldn’t be close.

    Essay: Giants +5.5 at home vs a broncos team that has the public overreacting to mannings masterful second half performance and the giants 6 turn overs last week. What’s lost in last weeks cowboys game is that the giants were still in the game and they had 6 TO’s!!! Not sure if that’s says more about the cowboys or giants my feeling is it says a lot about both teams.

    As much as I like what the broncos did last week they still are without on miller and Elvis dumerville, and the giants have the weapons to expose that. Eli should have lots of time and hopefully the giants can find a back to hold onto the damn ball. This game will be close I think the giants will win by 3.

  7. Maryland Terrapins -7.5
    Baltimore Ravens -7
    New York Giants +5.5
    Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
    Dallas Cowboys +1
    ***Miami Dolphins +3

    Weeden blows, but lets not underestimate how good this Dolphins front seven is. The Colts offensive line is not good, and I expect Cameron Wake and company to wreak more havoc this week. Vick Ballard is done for the year for the Colts, who will turn towards a gimpy Ahmad Bradshaw and a shitty Donald Brown. I expect Mike Wallace and the Dolphins O line and underrated RB tandem to come out with a chip on their shoulder after last weeks snore-fest against the Browns. And I expect them to go to Indianapolis and beat an overrated Colts team that barely held off one of the worst teams in football last week.

  8. oxr says:

    I’ll have the Ducks -28.5 over Tennessee and BC +13.5 over the Trojans, and I’ll be back tomorrow with NFL picks.

  9. clevelandfrowns says:

    Two college picks for me today. Will come back tomorrow with 4 NFL’s, including an essay.

    1) Aggie +8 over Bammer: I don’t understand all the Johnny Football hate in here. He’s a righteous dude! Plus it’s 12 on 11 in College Station today.

    2) UCF +6 over PSU: Bortles and change, please. Word up to Fly High Charlie, and the TA rotten fish special.

    • clevelandfrowns says:

      NFL four-pack for Lobsterfest gloree (won with UCF and the Johnny Footballs yesterday).

      Will start with the All-Play, which will mark the first time I’ve wagered on the Browns in any way since 2010. I think the Ravens miss Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in all kinds of ways that aren’t being accounted for early, and think bad action laws help the Browns keep this within a touchdown. REMINDER: Staying within a touchdown of the Ravens does not make the Browns non-terrible: http://espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=320927033. — Browns +7.

      Moving on to a matchup that nobody else here has touched yet on either side: Between Dan Snyer’s pigheaded response to the rising public sentiment against one of the most glaring examples of institutional racism in professional sport, and RGIII’s increasingly cowardly acquiescence (even after visiting the Muhammed Ali museum … so incredibly sad), I’ll be fading the Washington Cornball Brothers early this season. This week in Green Bay seems like as good as any to press the strategy. The Eagles can’t be as good as they looked on Monday, and the team the Packers lost to last week is really good! The extra half a point we’re being tagged with on the Bay is the only reason I won’t make it my essay. — Packers -7.5

      And as much as I’d like to go with San Fran for my three pointer, I don’t like that these teams might end up playing three times this year, and I expect the Manginis to stay light on the playbook throttle for this first one, especially on the road, so just one point for me here. — San Francisco Manginis +3

      So make my essay the most bonkers line on the board, the Giants getting 5.5 from Denver at the Meadowlands. An overreaction, as others here have noted. See Browns play above; the Giants won’t turn the ball over 6 times; Eli/Cruz/Nicks/Randle > Flacco/Smith/Chansi Stuckey, etc. — Giants +5.5.

  10. Jdoepke says:

    Week 3 picks and I’m not nearly as drunk as I was last week when I went 5-1 with my only loss being my essay pick.

    Here goes:
    Ravens -7 (All Play) This is the only side to have in this one (very disappointing All Play BTW)
    UK +14.5 Again, only side to have here, just seems way too easy to have the other side
    Central Fl +6
    AZ St. -4.5
    Cal +15.5 this could be really really bad but I’m hoping they can stay within 2 TD’s. This is Cal’s Super Bowl
    Bama -8 (Essay)

    Ok so the media loves the story lines here and there are a lot of them. I look at this game and ask one question, what does Vegas say? This line opened at 7 and has been bet up to as high at 9.5 in some spots. The over/under is 62….sixty f’ing two for a Bama game. Unheard of. This game will attract more public bettors due to the magnitude of the game. The fact that Vegas (guys who presumably know more than us) opened Bama (a publicly bet team as it is) as a TD favorite at a hostile environment tells me that Bama is the right side. When you look at last year’s game Manziel was nearly perfect and I’m betting that he can’t do it again. I’m actually calling for somewhat of a blowout and it’s out of reach by halftime. A&M gets some points late but only to make the score more respectable. Bama 38 A&M 23. Roll Tide

  11. Bobby_Slick says:

    Time to bounce back…

    Jets (W)

    Bama -8
    UCF +6
    Browns +7
    Jaguars +6
    Colts -3 ***

    Even though the Browns looked horrible last week, I am still incredibly unimpressed with the Dolphins. Their run game is atrocious and they have to go on the road to play an under the radar Colts team. Luck loves playing at home and I believe they only lost only 1 game in Indy all year. I like the Luck to Fleener connection after seeing what Cameron was able to do to the dolphins D. Wayne is able to be a downfield threat against a bad secondary unlike what the browns were able to do. This one is colts by 10

  12. ravens -7
    cal +15.5
    kent +37.5
    bengals -7
    ole miss +3
    bc +13.5

    the trojans are a complete and utter mess, they had to announce a quarterback on youtube, kiffin is a dead man walking, plus boston college’s defense isn’t horrible and it can run the football. this isn’t a game where i would expect the eagles to win outright or anything because well they are still boston college but washington state beat usc last week and washington state is still not a very good football team. i’m not convinced usc will even score 14 points much less win by that much so this is my pick yay cheddar bay.

  13. @usfcollin says:

    Maryland -7 over UConn
    Kentucky +14.5 over Louisville
    Ravens -7 over Browns

    Eagles +9 over Chargers
    So the Chargers are going west to east on a short week for a 1pm kick to face the fastest offense the NFL has ever seen after a devastating choke job at home? I never, EVER think NFL lines are better than college, but this is too juicy. I’d lay 13 in this game and maybe more, it could get ugly. The problem with the Eagles is their defense, but you know Laserface will throw a couple picks to make up for it.

    Also… POINTS ARE FUN GO EAGLES WOOOOOOO!!!

  14. clevta says:

    Kanicki please replace my Giants pick with Kentucky +14.5. Major bad action alert on Louisville today. Thanks

  15. Art Brosef says:

    Cal (+15.5) – OSU beat Buffalo, by what 20? at home? Too far to travel and too many points.
    Oregon (-28.5) – Tennessee hasnt beaten a ranked team in forever. Oregon might win by twice this number.

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