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Home » Cheddar Bay Archive » Wk 14 — OSU -9 at UM

Wk 14 — OSU -9 at UM

MACtion lines:
OU -28 at Akron
WKU -8.5 at NIU


2019wk14

Form linked above and right cheer.


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Come for the skeeball, stay for the Time Crisis.

We looked at Wisco at Minny, we know Niners are playing at Baltimore, and everyone knows where they’ll be Sunday and what they’ll be watching Sunday afternoon.

But in the end, OSU at Ann Arbor is our all-play for this week featuring NH Seacoast’s finest piloting the Buckeyes.  Ryan Day is doing the improbable.  Following the Urban Meyer era with as much as or more impressive football on both sides of the ball was more that even the biggest Buckeye honk could have hoped for.  (Shit it took 25 years for Jim Tressel to get us to move on after Woody.)

300s

Fellow Playland alumnus and current owner of pre-eminent local dive bar* confirms Ryan Day was a good dude.

A fun fact that you won’t get anywhere else (unless The Athletic reads this):  Ryan Day’s summer job was here at Happy Hampton at the Playland Arcade.  Yeah, he was one of the guys who would collects your 10,000 skeeball tickets and award you your prize — likely a very nice pencil eraser, or perhaps a plastic slinky, or maybe even a low capacity squirt gun.  With regard to his current success, anyone around here could tell you, after you cut your teeth keeping a constant flow of tank top wearers from the Merrimack Valley in line for a couple seasons at Hampton Beach you’re uniquely well-equipped with the life lessons to propel you to success in any field of your choice.

Happy Handicapping.


*Not kidding about The Pier.  Absolutely the Official Cheddar Bay Viewing Outpost for all Browns games on basic cable in the Boston area.


63 Comments

  1. ckozelka says:

    first time ever, i just blew making picks…..

    we’ll take Vikings for the essay (skip week)

  2. Elizabeth Schultz says:

    The headline says “Mike Tonlin’s reason for starting Devlin Hodges was a nice middle finger to Mason Rudolph.” Last Tuesday, at a Pittsburgh press conference, Tomlin was asked what he (Tomlin) saw in Hodges to make the change; the reply was “He has not killed us.” ouch. The answer was a cold clear assessment. Rudolph is a liability and Tomlin wants to win. The Browns come in today with a better, more talented roster riding a win streak. However, Tomlin is veteran coach who knows and feels every possession is necessary for the win. Steelers are 6-5, a 7-5 record headed into the last quarter of the season is the traction he needs. The rest of the schedule Pitts faces ARI, BUF, NYJ and Baltimore; to finish 9-7 they need to win today + 2 more. Tomlin understands his franchise expects him to deliver a winning record. The recency of these to teams (11/14) is advantage Pitts, the entire staff has memorized that film. Home dog, give me Steelers +2 (quack quack)
    hometeam

  3. teddycuddles says:

    Well, I missed the AP and my college pick of the week, but let’s wing it on the NFL games today and tomorrow.

    Packers -6.5
    Rams -3
    Bucs +1
    Panthers -10
    Essay: Vikings +3

    Going back to the well here. Vikes have been my Cheddar essay go to this year and it’s paid off nicely. They look like a complete team right now…maybe other than the D backs. Biggest weakness was Kurt Cuzzy, but somehow he’s in the talk for MVP which is mind boggling. Does anyone remember the interception he threw in GB this year or his dumpster fire of a game in Chicago? At that time, I think everyone pretty much thought the proverbial Vikings ship was going down like the Edmund Fitzgerald. But no, they have done a nice job of “rowing the boat” in the right direction. (Shout out to my Badgers for restoring order to the Gophers season and avenging last year’s loss. Gophers season was cute while it lasted.) Seattle is a very good football team. Wilson is playing at another level right now which is scary to think about. Seattle has played incredibly well on the road, but can’t say the same at home this year. Vikes may not come away with the victory, but I think this comes down to a last second FG for the win and it’s a coin flip who comes out on top. SKOL!

  4. Peter Wendler says:

    UCLA -1 vs. Cal
    Arizona St. -13.5 vs. Arizona
    Fresno St. -2.5 @ SJSU
    Colts -2.5 vs. Titans
    AP – N/A – late

    Essay:

    Packers -6.5 @ NYG
    The Pack is angry and motivated for a blowout. I see Aaron Rodgers throwing for 300+ in this one, and the Packers defense getting turnovers from Jones. Giants will try to keep it close, but two late scores from GB will secure the double digit cover. Packers 31 Giants 20

  5. Bears -3.5
    Saints -7
    Jags -1
    Niners 6
    Seahawks -3

    Allplay/Essay:

    Ohio State -9

    Michigan is a good team. They are generally well-coached, and despite the gorilla-sized primate on Jim Harbaugh’s back, I expect them to keep it competitive for a half.

    But in my 37 years of following Ohio State football, this is the best and most complete squad I’ve ever seen. Zero weaknesses. So well-coached. If they can avoid stupid turnovers a la the PSU game, they will pull away and win this one by double digits.

  6. Essay: Michigan. There are only two ways to look at this number. Either it’s the biggest square trap of the year or its the biggest sharp trap of the year. If you are an Ohio St fan and see this joke number which is AT LEAST 5 points too low you see 45-10, 52-0, 72-0. If you are a Michigan fan and see this joke number YOU ALSO see 55-7, 40-14, 87-0. There is nothing – literally NOTHING – that would suggest that Michigan is competitive here. They beat a garbage ND team and played an acceptable 3 quarters against Penn St (who is not that good) while Penn St was busy shitting themselves with that huge lead. It really is that simple. If I bet Michigan and lose here I know I was siding with long term winners. If I bet Ohio St. and win here I’m just going to lose on some other game. You have to have a style. This game screams sharp/square standoff. The right side doesn’t always win. Michigan for the essay.

  7. AmplifiedEsq says:

    OSU -9

    • AmplifiedEsq says:

      1. Browns -2
      2. Eagles -10
      3. 49ers +6
      4. Texans +3.5
      5. All-Play: OSU -9
      6. Essay: Chargers -2.5

      Essay: Chargers -2.5 @ Broncos

      Surely Phillip Rivers will not continue to play as abysmal as he has the last few weeks, right? Especially against a team that is starting their rookie QB in the first game of his career, fresh off an IR stint.

      Even if Rivers continues to throw interceptions, the Denver offense hasn’t exactly been scoring points at a steady rate; so I don’t expect Lock to do what the previous two QBs couldn’t.

      The Chargers, like every other mediocre AFC team, is telling themselves they got an outside chance at the playoffs while they still can, and I fully expect the Chargers to right the ship and take care of business against Broncos team that I suspect is seeing what they have more than coming out to win.

  8. cleinmsp says:

    OSU -9 (All Play)

    • cleinmsp says:

      Ravens -6
      Colts -2.5
      Rams -3
      Raiders +10
      Eagles -10 (Essay)

      A desperate Eagles team travels down to Miami to face an absolutely awful Dolphins squad. The Eagles have had a rough schedule, so today is their first “easy” game in over a month. Carson Wentz hasn’t been great, but he’ll have a big day today. The Dolphins play hard, but man they are just so bad, especially their depleted secondary. Dolphins keep it close early, but the Eagles pour it on in the 2nd half. In looking at the Eagles schedule, they actually have an outside shot at the 2nd wild card in NFC if they win out. I’ll take a desperate and motivated squad with the heavy talent advantage.

  9. Bnasty99 (Brian Whalen) says:

    Penn State -41 Rutgers hahaha
    Alabama -3.5 They are still talented enough to beat Auburn without Tua
    Oklahoma -13.5 Backup QB for Okst. Oklahoma wins big
    Bengals +3.5 Andy Dalton Comes Back in a big way. Do I hear 1-11?

    AP: OSU -9 At the end of the day, they just have too much on both sides of the ball. Michigan will fail again

    ***ESSAY***
    Baylor -14
    I’m the past, Baylor has struggled mightily in this game against the Jayhawks. I don’t think that happens this year. The defense has dominated big 12 teams all year and even though Les Miles has made Kansas a little more competitive this year, I believe today they will be in major trouble. Baylor should dominate both side of the ball and they should run away with this game. I’m looking somewhere in the 40’s-Teens. So give me the Bears for 3 biscuits. 41-14

  10. LittleBallofHate says:

    Essay — Jets (-3.5) at Bengals. The last time Gang Green visited Cincinnati during the regular season it was over by halftime. Geno Smith was lousy, Andy Dalton was tossing dimes left and right to Marvin Jones and the Bengals were surging. Now Dalton is being called off the bench to try to get at least one win and prevent both of Paul Brown’s franchises from going 0-16. The thing is the Jets actually look like a pretty good team with Darnold under center, which makes some wonder what they might have done this season if he didn’t come down with mono after Week 1.

  11. Jason says:

    Michigan +9 (AP)
    Army +3 (this line is not listed but assuming 3 based on what I’ve seen elsewhere)
    Auburn +3.5
    Cardinals +3
    Steelers +2

    Essay: Colts -2.5
    I’ve been terrible on essays this season but here goes nothing. I like the Colts coaching staff after extra time to prepare from last Thursday game. The Titans rolled the Jags on Sunday and they looked good but I’m betting on them being a little over rated, and over confident going into Lucas Oil. Indy is 11-1 ATS under Reich last 2 years vs. winning teams and ATS margin is 9.6 points. Give me the colts with extra rest and extra prep. Colts 24-20.

  12. UM +9
    S. Car +27
    Illinois -7.5
    BYU -3 (Essay)

    Dolphins +10
    LA Chargers -2.5

    BYU has been on a roll the last few weeks. They’re putting up points as if they’re trying to get rid of excess points inventory that’s just weighing down their balance sheet. SDSU is an odd choice of rival, as I would expect them to go against a closer neighbor such as Utah or Utah St. Or a school with a similar religious bent, such as Liberty or TCU. Or Wake Forest with their Demon Deacons.

    SDSU is doing an ok job of not letting things get out of control. 3 points won’t be enough to make up the likely difference against an opponent that can score.

  13. Baltimore (-6)
    Pittsburgh (+2)
    Seattle (-3)
    Colts (-2.5)
    Miami (+10)

    AP and Essay – OSU (-9)

    I thought long and hard about making the Steelers my essay. I know it’s weirdly ironic to say but without Myles Garrett (or Mason Rudolph), I think the feel of this game is different. The Steelers were beaten up two weeks ago and it’s going to be hard for the Browns to match that same level. But enough about that – I can’t wager anything either for or against Cleveland – who knows which team shows up? We’ll go with the Buckeyes in what could be a laugher. The entire season and playoff is setting up perfectly for them and you have to think the rookie HC wants to establish him in this rivalry similar to Tressel and Meyer before him.

  14. 1. Giants +6.5 v. Packers
    2. LSU -17.5 v. Texas A&M
    3. Wake Forest -4 @ Syracuse
    4. Georgia -28 @ Georgia Tech
    AP: Ohio State -9 @ Michigan
    Essay: Temple -28 v. UConn

    So I had a whole write-up on LSU over TAMU, but scrapped it because TAMU is a backdoor cover waiting to happen and sitting on the key hook seemed tenuous knowing that fact. Hopefully the Cheddar Gods don’t punish me for this change-up since I’m still playing that game.

    With that said, I’m going with a clasic, take the good team over a bad team game. UConn is the 125th ranked team in college football out of 129 teams according to SP+. They are bad on defense and worse on offense. They do exactly nothing well. Temple by contrast is actually good, ranking #44. The weather in Philly looks good, cold but the bad storms won’t be in for at least another day. Even at 28, it just doesn’t look like the Huskies can compete physically with the Owls and that’s before we discuss the coaching and home field advantages owned by Temple. So lock it up, Temple wins large.

  15. Moonman says:

    Chargers -2.5
    Saints -7
    AP: Michigan +9
    Ravens -6
    Patriots -3.5
    Seahawks -3 (essay)

    Essay: Seahawks -3

    Sharp bettors and professionals say that the Vikings are the right bet here. But I am a favorites bettor little sheeple. This is more of a bet fading Kirk “Kurt” Cousins, than it is a bet for Seattle. Kurt is the most average quarterback in the league. He is above average against bad teams, in low pressure games, and is straight trash when the pressure is on.

    Everybody keeps doubting Seattle even though their record is legit. They have the most clutch quarterback in the league and the qb that I would want if I was in a game I needed to win. Also, Pete carrol is a stud and gets his teams up for big games. This game could mean home field in the NFC, and both these teams know it. All in all, I’m confident that Russel Wilson will best Kirk “Kurt” cousins. That is as simple as it gets. Dalvin cook won’t be enough to save the day for the vikes. I hope you all have a great thanksgiving, and let’s go mr birthmark himself, drew brees. Love that guy. (I have a big BM too, so I feel connected with him)❤️❤️🦃🦃🦃

  16. Lucylaw12 says:

    1. Dallas

    • Lucylaw12 says:

      2. PSU
      3. FSU
      4. ND
      5. AP tOSU
      6. Essay on Sunday

    • LucyLaw12 says:

      2. FSU
      3. ND
      4. PSU
      5. AP tOSU
      6. Essay on Sunday

      • Lucylaw12 says:

        As I was going through the line this game stuck out to me. I had to double check that Dalton was still starting bc I couldn’t understand why they were getting points. I’m going with Cincy as my essay. I’m pretty sure Dalton can put up a good fight at home against the NYJ. I would have thought this line would be more of a pick em. Both teams stinks so I’ll always take points at home. I think Dalton will be able to put up points and hang tight with Jets.

  17. thatsfine503 says:

    Cowboys -6.5

    • thatsfine503 says:

      OSU -9

      • thatsfine503 says:

        Texas A&M +17.5
        Purdue +6.5

        • thatsfine503 says:

          Bengals +3.5 Essay
          49ers +6  

          Well, the past 3 weeks I’ve been putrid, so I could really use to hit an essay. Makes sense to throw my lot with the worst team in the NFL getting 3.5 at home against the Jets. No matter how you look at it getting Dalton back at QB is an improvement. And now the Bengals are 0-11, they’ve more or less locked up that #1 draft pick, they can try to win a game while still in tanking mode. The Jets played well last week and partied hard after beating the Raiders. From the stories in the local NJ/NY news I wouldn’t be surprised if Dalton has Mono again… or worse. If you think it’ crazy that a 5-6 Browns team/media/fans is talking about the playoffs, listen to a 4-7 Jets team/media/fans talk about it. Here is let down spot, on the road, for a team getting too much props for smashing an overrated west coast team in the deadly 1pm eastern time slot. 

          • thatsfine503 says:

            Mike, I checked the form and OSU is listed as my essay but my essay was actually the Bengals. I may have put it in the form incorrectly. It doesn’t change my score because both covered, but I wanted to point it out. Thanks!

  18. mattborcas says:

    Hopping on the Frownie train and taking the Cowboys for one point to start my march to a Week 14 lobsterfest.

    • mattborcas says:

      OSU -9 over UM
      49ers +6 over Ravens
      Browns -2 over Steelers
      Colts -2.5 over Titans

      Essay: Texas A&M +17.5 over LSU

      When it comes to quality losses, Texas A&M’s resume has to be the strongest in the nation. Their four defeats have come to no. 3 Clemson, no. 16 Auburn, no. 5 Alabama, and no. 4 Georgia; no. 2 LSU has a chance to join this illustrious list this weekend. But Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies have quietly enjoyed a strong second half of the season; since losing to Bama on Oct. 12 they’ve gone 4-1, losing only at Georgia, where they covered the spread and had the ball with a chance to take the lead late in the fourth quarter. All of which is to say that this iteration of A&M seems primed for a breakthrough, and while it may not come in the form of a victory in Baton Rouge, the Aggies should be able to keep it close enough against a team that just hemorrhaged 37 points to lowly Ole Miss. Factor in the added confidence that A&M’s players should have from beating LSU last year and the prospect of LSU looking ahead to Georgia in the SEC title game, and this game truly has all the makings of a potential rivalry week upset. There’s been a lamentable lack of chaos at the top of the rankings this year (OU falling to KSU and Illinois beating Wisconsin are all that come to mind), and if there’s anything we know about college football, it’s that that will probably change. Give me the Aggies +17.5.

  19. oxr says:

    Getting in a one-point pick of the Bears -3.5 against whoever the hell is playing QB for the Lions, eight minutes before kickoff. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

    • oxr says:

      All-Play OSU -9 over Michigan

      • oxr says:

        Packers -6.5 over Giants
        Browns -2 over Steelers
        Bengals +3.5 over Jets

        Essay Cardinals +3 over Rams — Essaying against the Rams again (dropping Goff for Mayfield also worked out well for me in fantasy, albeit too late to help) because this line is not enough of an overreaction. The Cardinals have been playing good teams, by which I mean the 49ers, relatively tough lately. They’re #15 in weighted DVOA and the Rams are actually #16. Goff on the road against the Cardinals defense is a battle of weakness against weakness, to be sure, but even if he finally looks somewhat competent I still like Murray’s chances to keep this one close fresh off putting up 25 and 26 points against an excellent defense, by which I still mean the 49ers.

  20. Harbaugh Handshakes says:

    Ohio State -9
    Bears -3.5

    • Harbaugh Handshakes says:

      Auburn +3.5
      Packers -6.5
      49ers +6
      Vikings +3

      I’m taking the points with the 49ers. The ravens are red hot and Lamar is a freak. However the 49ers have a defense that can slow them down and shanahan can design opportunities for the offense to score. The Niners are the class of the NFC 6 points is just too much.

  21. Bears -3.5 vs Lions
    Bills +6.5 vs Cowboys
    Saints -7 vs Falcons

    • Michigan +9 vs OSU
      Browns -2 vs Steelers
      Illinois -7.5 vs Northwestern
      This is the first time Illinois is favored against NW since 2011. Pat Fitzgerald is saying all the right things leading up to this ‘rivalry game’, but they are on their 4th quarterback in a lost season. Lovie the knome Smith has given Illinois something to play for so his players will be ready to roll. I just don’t see how the wildcats can be very motivated in this spot. I’ve always been a fan of Lovie. He seems like a guy who has a real life outside of his job, whether or not that is true I don’t know, but most football coaches don’t give off that vibe. Brandon Peters has done a nice job stabilizing the quarterback position for Illinois this year and I think he plays a strong game to finish off the season in front of an appreciative home crowd.

  22. shit ill take the lions just to be contrary and to have some action. yes i am still extremely butt hurt about their essay killing performance last week. but i am not really concerned about the qb talent dropoff… i mean it’s driskell. pretty sure blough was better than driskell in college. it’s not like you’re plugging in dwayne haskins or anything that disastrous. (!) plus lions get hockinson and flowers back. plus darius slay is probs the best cb in the nfl. hell no this is not my essay. we think kitchens is bad but at least there’s signs of progress and a willingness to adapt (shit ive seen freddie lately in a scally cap and oxford shirt and it matters not whether someone told to stop looking like larry the cable guy at least he’s attending to the suggestion although admittedly he still seems to have a problem finding a razor blade perhaps dee will get him a norelco for xmas). particia though, my god, that game last week, and two years in,,,, no he’s demonstrably bad. probably fired at the end of the season anyway but a loss today would clinch it. happy thanksgiving.

    • osu, utah, clemson
      clemson essay. today’s picks are about style points for the committee. others considered were bama and uga and okla but these three seem most likely to conviction-cover their spreads. and of these three clemson, you can be sure, is well and truly tired about hearing non-stop lsu-osu chatter. their point differential has been 30+ for the last six games. over 35 in the last four. but still not a lot of national respect and it is more than the tight win against unc. no, it’s about playing the ACC. welp,,, here’s an SEC team for you mr. committee voter. check this out. all coaches today are cognizant of the style point component but dabo has been running up scores for longer than most. his defense is dominating and his offense has first round talent with etienne and higgins plus i dont know about you but my feed lately has been a steady dose of joe burrow and justin fields lately… dabo will want to remind the country about trevor lawrence. 27 points is a lot but clemson is out to hang 60 today.

  23. Elizabeth Schultz says:

    bears -3.5
    app st -13
    colorado +28
    AP osu -9
    steelers +2 essay
    pats -3.5

    hometeam

  24. Josh Rossie says:

    Chi -3.5 3rd string QB vs a desperate chi team, give me the bears. 23-13

    Ravens -6 Lamar Jackson is the real deal. Give me the Ravens at home. 33-24

    Gbay -6.5 Aaron Rodgers> Daniel Jones. 27-20

    Cards +3 Underdog Pick bc I think Rams Oline is awful. Kyler is video game fast. 26-24

    ALL PLAY OSU -9. Going with Justin Fields and Company to wanna prove a point to the pollsters and embarrass Michigan. 28-17

    Essay: Bucs +1

    Jags are a mess. The Coach is talking about how Tom Coughlin yelled at him earlier in yr about his training camp. This team is a dumpster fire. No run defense, no good coaching schemes, no LBs, our secondary is falling apart. Oh btw Bucs have Stud WRs, but watch the TEs Brate/Howard they may run wild.
    Tampa 34-23

  25. Elder B says:

    Arkansas State -11 @ South Alabama
    IU -6.5 @ Purdue
    Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. 49ers
    Temple -28 vs. UCONN
    All Play OSU -9 @ UM

    Essay **Chi Bears -3.5 @ Detroit Lions**
    Getting my essay game done before the weekend. Chicago is a poorly coached team. BUT they are a poorly coached team with a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. The team seemed to get in a bit of a rhythm last week, Mitchell realized his arm and eyes aren’t great and used his legs. I think the offense could string 2-3 touchdowns together. The real story is a questionable Jeff Driskel, potentially some rando off the bench playing quarterback against the Bears defense. This has all the makings of a pressure package, tee-off on the offense kind of game. I think the defense holds the Lions to under 14 and may even add a score to the game. Bears win 21-10.

  26. Art Briles Hirer says:

    Locking in Bears -3.5 over Lions Essay. Is it a valid essay if I just write “David BLOLugh” 50 times?

    Also give me Ole Miss +2.5 for the single.

    • Art Briles Hirer says:

      Sounds like the start of the David Blough Era is confirmed for tomorrow. Could you imagine spending part of your Thanksgiving driving to Ford Field in Detroit, paying for parking, paying for tickets, concessions, standing in line to get in, all the bullshit you have to deal with to attend an NFL game, but it’s on Thanksgiving and you’re watching David Blough and Mitch Trubisky?

      A buddy of mine at work has a son in the Spartan Marching Band so we always talk about inside MSU athletics. Today he remarked that he hoped MSU would get any bowl bid besides the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit (for obvious reasons). I pointed out that David Blough v. Mitch Trubisky has some big time Quick Lane Bowl energy already.

      By the way, here are two organizations that should sign Kaepernick. It would be a huge lifeline for the Bears to bail them out of the fact that they bet the family farm on a one-year starter at UNC that went 8-5. For the Lions I just want them to sign him and trade Stafford so he be a stopgap and the new GM can draft Justin Herbert or whatever.

      I hate everything about this game, except for the fact that it seems like a cheap essay win. Nothing wrong with that folks

    • Art Briles Hirer says:

      Ok here’s the full boat:

      Ole Miss +2.5 over Miss St
      Illinois -7.5 over Northwestern
      Wisconsin -2.5 over Minnesota
      Auburn +3.5 over Alabama
      Bears -3.5 over Lions — Essay
      OSU -9 over Michigan — All Play

  27. ckozelka says:

    lock in the Buckeyes early

  28. Zac Jackson says:

    WMU -8,5

    *PLAY OF THE YEAR*

    I watched NIU last week. They looked done. A week later, how could they be excited? How could they stay close to a Western team that’s playing for the division title? MAC teams are thin. Bad years get worse, quickly. NIU just didn’t appear to have the horses, and now it’s empty stadium / bad weather / bad attitudes and motivation matters so much. So, I’ll take the team that has its goals in sight to absolutely pound a team that’s out of contention and going home tomorrow. Hopefully after a thorough beating.

  29. I mean WMU.

    Mike – I entered this into the form wrong. sorry about that.

    • bears
      cowboys
      buckeyes
      auburn
      steelers essay to follow

      • Mike Tomlin has pulled this team up and gotten them to 6 wins. Their Defense is excellent, but this offense is BAD. Devoid of playmakers and Mason Rudolph was so clearly not a good player from early on. Sideways throws and he really seemed to struggle to process things quickly. Ducky Hodges was better from his first snap. I struggle to understand how Tomlin can excel so clearly in one part of his job but also have such obvious blind spots. Hodges allows the Steelers to have an intermediate game 11-20 yard throws that were totally nonexistent with Rudolph.
        The Browns are due for an implosion and this one has all the elements. They were not clean last week. Best first half in years leads to second half of an INT, a missed FG, a personal foul to extend a drive, a reckless INT (that ended up not counting) that would have really put the heat on. Browns have far more talent on Offense but they are going to struggle to hold it together here.

  30. clevta says:

    1. western Michigan -8.5

    • clevta says:

      2. South Bama +11

      • clevta says:

        3. OSU -9 (all play)
        4. New Mex St +14

        • clevta says:

          5. Chargers -2.5
          6. Bengals +3.5 (essay): This line is terrible. When Finley was the expected QB, the line sat at 4. Then Dalton gets announced as starter and only moves to 3.5/3?? Dalton is only worth 0.5/1 point over Finley? On what planet? Finley is a 3rd round pick with a weak arm and was horrendous in his starts. 47% completion%, 5.4 yards per attempt is really bad. Against the worst pass D in the NFL, the Raiders, he produced a stat line of 13-31 for 115 yards (3.7 ypa) and 1 INT. The Bengals would’ve won the last two games against Oakland and Pittsburgh if Dalton had started. Dalton wasn’t great but wasn’t bad either in his starts this season considering he faced at top 3 toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses. Imo he’s worth 4 points more per game than Finely. This line is saying the Jets would be -9/9.5 in NY. That’s crazy considering the Jets got blown out at Jacksonville and Miami. Not only do Bengals cover but they win outright 23-20

  31. Agnes says:

    Akron, wmu (not wku as it would imply above though maybe he was channeling the old Kalamazoo name).

    • Agnes says:

      Cowboys

    • agnes says:

      I missed getting a vote in for the all play but it didn’t matter because I was going to take Michigan. That leaves me a chance to get 4 points if I nail my essay and one more vote.

      Here goes for 2 teams with good rushing offense vs 2 teams with terrible defense against the rush
      UL Lafayette (too late to essay:( -20 vs UL Monroe
      Army essay +2.5 (no line on the cheddar link but scores and odds today said 2.5). Army kids get their first overseas deployment to Hawai’i and a chance to play a terrible defense. I anticipate the Hawai’i kids will not have spent extra time preparing for the triple option this week as they were all home for the holiday. Army is the third best rushing team-even better than The Ohio State-and Hawai’i is 93rd in rushing defense. Army has a chance to make a 6th win for the season and they should be extra motivated since they lost 4 games by a score this year.

  32. Cleveland Frowns says:

    Zips +28, hoping OU takes some pity on senior night

    • Cleveland Frowns says:

      Narrator: “OU did not take pity on senior night.” Boy what a scandal this Zips football program is. Brutal assessment here by Bob Dyer in the Beacon Journal that calls the sustainability of MACtion, at least in Northeast Ohio, into serious question:

      https://www.beaconjournal.com/news/20191123/bob-dyer-university-of-akron-football-is-invisible

      Agnes and I went to the game on Tuesday because her cousin is in the band and the band (which was excellent) got by far the loudest cheers in the game, especially after the replay official stopped the game because it wouldn’t stop playing while OU had the ball. It was as wild as things got. One really feels bad for the kids who signed up for the football part of this and wonders how long the University will get away with carrying on such a fraud of a program. I’d like to find some time to do a longer writeup on this, but annnywayyyyy …

      Happy Thanksgiving folks! I usually don’t do this (can’t remember the last time I’ve taken them on Thanksgiving if ever) but I’m going with the Cowboys (-6.5) over the Bills as my vote of the week this week. Dallas having given its O.C. job to Kellen Moore, one of the best minds in football since he was slinging it for Boise about a decade ago, makes it a lot easier to back them generally but more specifically they seem especially well equipped to beat this Bills team in what I’m expecting to be something of a blowout today for two main reasons: (1) Beyond the extremely soft schedule the Bills have faced to date, you can see that their defense has only looked good against teams with offensive fronts that they can beat up, and really struggled in the only game against a team (the not otherwise great Eagles) with an offensive line that’s anywhere close to as good as Dallas’s. Compound that with the fact that the Bills defense is usually on the field a lot due to the offense’s general inability to sustain drives, which should hold today against a Cowboys defense that you really have to be able to throw against to beat, and it’s shaping up to be a long day for Buffalo. Anyone who watched the Bills/Browns game had a very good look at how hard it is for Josh Allen to hit open receivers and I don’t think he’ll make much hay on the ground either with Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee patrolling the middle. This line might look big for a 6-5 team against an 8-3 team but there appears to be very good reasons for that and this appears to be a very good spot for Dallas to quiet the noise from last week’s close loss to the Pats. If I still had my P.O.T.Y. I’d use it here but anyway I’m glad to take it for 3.

      Very grateful for Mike B. and the whole Cheddar crew, and hope everyone enjoys the holiday!

      • Cleveland Frowns says:

        Good to know it wouldn’t have mattered if I’d saved my P.O.T.Y.! If Allen were 25% as accurate against the Browns as he was against Dallas the Bills would have walked away with that game, too.

        Anyway, will finish my thanksgiving slate with four home dogs: Michigan +9, Minnesota +2.5, Auburn +3.5, and Steelers +2.

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