Home » Cheddar Bay Archive » Cheddar Bay 2013 » Cheddar Bay week 4: We [are now no longer] goin’ to Ypsi.

Cheddar Bay week 4: We [are now no longer] goin’ to Ypsi.


White smoke seen rising above the Basilica of Cheddar Bay.


Arkansas +2 at Rutgers;
Toledo -13 at CMU;
FAMU +49.5 at OSU.


After an emergency session of the Cheddar Bay Executive Committee, the all-play for this week is no longer the sleeper sneaky MAC game between Ann Arbor and Detroit.

We are now asking our pickers to choose this game:


Packers -3 at Bengals.
1pm Sunday.
Game matchup link.

Three time playoff team and undefeated 1-1 Bengals a home dog?  Residual MNF football effect?  Should be a strong game.


Week four lines here.


UPDATE, Thursday PM:  ClevTA’s Rotten Skanky Fishstinky-dead-animated-fish-with-flies
Last week, TA’s formula went 4-1-1.  Let’s see how it goes this week:

– SJSU v Minn (opened Min -5, now -3.5. 65% on MIN) ADV: SJSU
– Memphis v ARK St (opened -6, now -4. 69% on ARK st) ADV: Memphis
– SDSU v Oregon St (opened -11, now -8.5. 67% on Oregon St) ADV: SDSU

– ATL v MIA (opened PK, now MIA -2.5. 68% on ATL) ADV: MIA
– Buf v NYJ (opened NYJ -1, now NYJ -2.5. 64% on BUF) ADV: NYJ




Ypsilanti, MI:  Home to EMU and rumored to be a pretty cool place.



Other news.

Welcome Swerb.  I granted new player Swerb a late entry bogey of one point.  There is precedent for this from past years, not a biggie, and congrats on coming out strong.

Hell yes we can still accept late entries.  In case you know anyone on the fence.  Get em in touch with me.

Cheddar public service announcement.  If anyone missed yesterday’s post, Be a better bettor, it’s probably worth your while to check it out.  Many thanks for Petefranklin, ClevTA, and Squeekycleen for their insights.  If you know real handicappers, you know discretion and low-profile are two cornerstones in that personality profile… so we appreciate the info they were willing to share.

Michie Stadium is terrific.  


The Stanford man.

Army’s home games have been played at Michie Stadium since the 1920s.  You cannot ask for a better venue.  Good people, beautiful scenary, the parking –my god– the parking was executed like a miliatary operation, and Army played their balls off.  Army was hanging in, down 20-13 with five minutes left in the 3rd quarter.  Stanford had to out weigh Army by forty pounds at every position on the line and that eventually took its toll.  But the Army TD with seventeen seconds left was hard-earned and very tasty.

The game was a sell out with many Stanford types at the game and they all looked like this guy.

The only complaint, and it’s minor, was the the Corps of Cadets were in the visitor stands.  Don’t know if this is a new thing but have to say it could have been louder on our side of the field.  The Corps was loud.  Good thing too, because with the camo unis, you’d completely miss them but for the sound.


Camo works.



  1. Art Brosef says:

    Thanks to a much anticipated weekend golf trip, Im now forced to use my money play on this Monday Night Football game I will normally would not even watch, much lest interest wager on. Ive heard quite a bit about Peyton Manning this year, and Id imagine most of the betting public has as well. Oakland leads the league in sacks with nine and lead the league in rushing at almost 200 yards a game. Heres hoping that results in the ball not being in Mannings hand as often as usual. Add in the fact that this is a big NFL number and Denvers win over New York last week isnt as impressive in light of their performance yesterday. Gimme the points.

  2. bupalos says:

    Hey I know technically late on this, but can I get Tampa?

    Then later I’ll go with Da Bearse.

    So that would be Browns, SF, Pack, Bucs, Bears. Lemme know if I need an alternate.

  3. Harbaugh Handshakes says:

    Saturday Picks

    K State

    Sunday Picks
    All Play: Green Bay – 3: I was a lot higher on the Bungles before I saw Dalton last week and looked awful. I think Rodgers will score early and often. Think the Pack wins by a TD here.
    Giants (PK): I just don’t see the Giants losing here. They’re better than the Panthers and better coached.
    Miami -1.5
    EssayLBears -2.5:
    Bears Offense has looked great. They will put up 30 on an aging and hurting defense. The Steelers simply can’t score, they have no running game and without pouncey Big Ben can’t get a pass off. I just don’t see Pitt being about to score 30 pts and thats what you going to have to do against the Bears this year.

  4. mattborcas says:


    FAMU (+49.5) over Ohio St. (lose)
    Texas (-5) over Kansas St. (win)

    Packers (-3) over Bengals
    Giants (PK) over Panthers
    Chargers (+3) over Titans

    ESSAY: Browns (+6) over Vikings

    The return of Josh Gordon figures to open up the offense for Hoyer (who shouldn’t play any worse than Weeden has this season: http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr), and I like Davone Bess’s elevation to the starting lineup, which means fewer drives ending prematurely because of an egregious Little drop/mistake. Flacco and Tannehill were good enough to evade the Browns’ pass rush and pick on Skrine/Owens, but Ponder’s a different story. Candidly (*HASLAM VOICE*), Ponder is impatient and seems to resort to scrambling too quickly, throws 1-2 backbreaking picks per game, and can’t be expected to exploit the Skrine/Owens tandem of death like Flacco and Tannehill did. Adrian Peterson should underperform against Football Outsiders’ third-ranked run defense (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef), and folks won’t notice an appreciable difference between Willis McGahee and T-Rich, at least in terms of pure output. Finally, all the talk of tanking the season probably lit a fire under Browns players/coaches eager to disprove such a notion, however justified it may be. This’ll be an ugly-ass 17-13 win for the Vikings.

  5. bobby_slick says:

    Time to get back on track…

    ND (L)
    UTSA (W)

    Packers -3
    Giants PK ***
    Chargers +3
    Atlanta +1.5

    Eli flat out finds a way to win this game. The Giants cannot afford to start 0-3 and I believe Coughlin has focused on fixing the turnovers. If they can eliminate some of their mistakes, maybe they’ll get some credit for the good things they have done this year. Eli is second in passing yards in the league entering this week only behind Rodgers, and Cruz is having another pro bowl year. Adding to this, the Panthers D is really nothing to write home about, I see Giants winning this one in convincing style.

  6. oxr says:

    College: UTSA (win)

    AP: Packers -3 over Bengals – short week for Cincinnati, Packers are good.
    Bears -2.5 over Steelers – why do I keep picking (games involving) the Bears, for God’s sake? Last week was an easy cover if not for all the calamitous errors and (hopefully) non-predictive events, but then I say that every damn time. Steelers are pretty bad.
    Rams +4.5 over Cowboys.
    Dolphins -1.5 over Falcons – scary pick but I think TA’s Rotten Fish idea is fascinating and I want to join in the fun.

    Essay: Giants PK over Panthers – OK, so they’re on the road. But speaking of non-predictive events, the Giants are a fairly hard-luck 0-2, and their losses are less alarming than Carolina’s late collapse against the Bills. Denver appears to be legitimately good, and the opening week meltdown against the Cowboys still saw NYG put up 31 points and sling the ball around all over the place. Meanwhile, Carolina’s secondary has not been one of their strengths thus far, and they haven’t done much on offense with the opportunities they’ve been given (albeit against Seattle, but still). If the Giants can refrain from shooting themselves in the feet and then fumbling due to the agonizing pain they can certainly control this one. However, if they should fall behind through their own ineptitude or Steve Smith going nuclear or whatever, the Eli gunslinger offense is well-equipped to mount a furious comeback – and victory by a single point would be enough.

  7. bupalos says:

    First off welcome to swerb. In honor of your joining I’m forgoing my NCAA pick in order to supply your welfare point without creating inflation in the bay. The austrian libertarians here will understand the economics of this. Its necessary and has nothing to do with me being half passed out most of the night at the carpatho rusyn vatra in burton, where there is 0% T-Mobile data signal unless and until the sky is and was as 100% clear as the mysterious alleged liquid (alleged liquid because i swear when you look in the glass all you see is like those heat distortion waves) being poured (wafted??) from mysterious bottles into the mysterious plastic “shot glasses,” that look a whole whale of a lot like those little communion cups and oh hey by the way look there’s a little chapel over there. “Vatra” means bonfire, and “carpatho rusyn” means, as near as I can tell, either ransacker of little chapels, or drinker of the fermented plum, or both.

    Which is a fine segue into the matter at hand. For as baysters of a certain age will remember, there is a certain city that at one time embarked on the absolute lamest civic marketing campaign known to man (or beast), involving this very fruit–the plum–being compared with the apple. And somehow embodying the city. And this all somehow redounding to the good of the city, marketing-wise. As i say baysters of a certain age know whereof i speak. It was a peculiarly clevelandic kind of nonsense, perhaps the smiliest-faced offspring the general civic inferiority complex ever produced. That complex is never far from the surface, usually mumbling about how there aren’t enough night clubs to be like the cool kids, or remembering how we’re the only city ever to have a river fire (because somehow the fact that every single other mid century petro river port had caught fire doesn’t count), or that dey turk arrr jerbs, or holy shit, it might fucking snow once in a while oh me oh my. As i say its never far from the surface. But let something, and I mean ANYthing the least bit ambiguous happen in the world of sports and watch the flood gates open. For instance:

    Trade away a big promising tailback that can’t find the hole in his own butt–a guy that can’t squeeze through a gap narrower than area between the hashmarks or keep from stopping his own momentum when he sees the shadow of a 178 lb cornerback–trade that guy away for an extra first round pick, and witness Euclid avenue blasted clean with the force of our own woe. Oh, no one’s suffered like we’ve suffered! We’re horrible. Such torture. Oh how shall I now consume my football product?

    The universe would have to be actively unjust to allow this base whining spirit to enjoy itself in such a ridiculous wallow. Which is why the clevland browns, despite now having an even more seriously challenged player under center, will easily cover the 6 and probably win outright. Its just what happens next. So, louder and prouder than ever before, I bupalos step to the cliffs of the bay and shout for one and for all, CLEVELAND BROWNS FOR ALL THE CHEDDAR.

    The only other pick I know for sure is SF, because they are this weeks surrogate browns. I bupalos foresee that there will be other winning teams tomorrow too, and once this heat-distortion dissipates I will signify further. Until then, gentle reader.

    • acto says:

      Wow Bupa, you are certainly living large.
      The “carpatho rusyn vatra in burton,” that must be the perfect place for a big, dum, Slovak guy like me to play.
      I am very jealous of the Bupa life. I thought Burton only had maple trees.

      • bupalos says:

        Its great. In joseph Conrad stuff and Russian novels they are always referring to people falling into the fire as just kind of one of those general “bad luck” things that happen to people, and I was always like what the hell? How could that be a common thing. Then I went to the vatra.

        They get fired up on slivovitse and start jumping over the bonfire and doing these semi complicated circle dances around it, all backed by frantic fiddle and trumpet and accordion players. I may proactively smear myself in aloe next time.

    • jimkanicki says:

      thanks for this. my latest post is largely a reply this.

    • bupalos says:

      .I’ll get the PACK in all play.

    • clevelandfrowns says:

      This is so good.

  8. cheddarclay says:

    Packers (-3) / Bengals

    This is a battle of two likely playoff teams, that are actually kind of similar. They both like to get after the qb, but both qb’s have excellent te’s that can help them beat a blitz or at least keep lbs honest. I give an edge to Bengals on D, and Pack on offense. Vegas agrees with the (now) 3 point spread. So, most things being equal you must look to the qb’s, where GB has the obvious edge. Throw in that Kirkpatrick is likely out for Nati, and the edge has to go to the pack. Most likely a game of big plays and I gotta bet Rogers has at least 1 more in him than ginger boy. Browns should be back in first place tomorrow after a short 1 week hiatus.

  9. thatsfine says:


    Mr. Cheddarmaster, please change my Panthers pick to Rams+4.5. Can’t bet against Coughlin tomorrow. Sorry about that.

  10. Trashycamaro says:

    @byu -7 over Utah

    • trashycamaro says:

      Bears -2.5 @ Steelers: get in while 1. the betting world still kinda likes the Steelers and 2. before the Steelers remember they are the Steelers (this is projected to happen the first time they play the Browns). The Steelers are really struggling and I saw something about Haley is changing their offense to a quick throw west coast/spread hybrid…which of course is a very suboptimal offense for Roethlisberger. Throw in a struggling running game (welcome back Dwyer, the coaching staff hated you but did not want to pony up a #1 pick TRich), a bad offensiver line, no game breakers at WR…yeah, glad I made this my essay pick. Few things make me happier than watching the Steelers dissolve like they were in a special Walter White barrel from Home Depot. Did I hit 100 words yet?

      Jags +20 @ Seahawks: I know the Jags are barely an NFL team, but they are an NFL team

      @49ers -10.5 over Colts: Hey Colts, enjoy 3.5 ypc.

      Giants over pk @ Panthers

      @Dolphins -1.5 over Falcons

  11. DQuatts says:

    DQuatts week 4 action:

    Michigan -18.5
    Colorado State +41

    More action to come tomorrow morning. Have a great weekend!

    • DQuatts says:

      Dennis Quatts back again!

      Mich (lose)
      CSU (win)

      Arizona +8
      Miami -1.5
      Cincinnati +3
      Pittsburgh +2.5**


      This is exactly what the Pittsburgh Steelers need….a Sunday night game, at home, against a pretty solid Bears team. A game they absolutely need to show up for. A game they need to win to avoid their worst start in 15 years. Tomlin will have these guys fired up and ready to play. I like the crowd playing a part in this one, potentially rattling a “rattle-able” Jay Cutler. I am still questioning the Bears identity, and although the Steelers have struggled the first two weeks, things are going to change Sunday Night. Ball control will be key here. I don’t see this one being high scoring, but I do see it tight throughout. Should be a great one to watch! Enjoy…

  12. thatsfine says:

    Off to a slow start, but feeling like this is the week to turn it around, especially after the inspirational “Being a better bettor” skill-share posted here earlier this week.


    ASU +9 / Stanford (Essay)
    After a great week of college football comes a Saturday with only a few interesting games. On one side I’ve been impressed by Arizona State. Last week was my first time watching them for an entire game, and I think they do a good job of playing uptempo fluidly. This will, of course, be harder on the road. Kelly put up 352 passing yards on Wisconsin, though it took 52 attempts to do so. On the other side, I’m somewhat unimpressed by what I’ve seen from Stanford. They labored to put away Army, and only managed to put up 34 points on both them and San Jose State. Part of this is their slow pace, ball control style. Part of it is maybe they are a bit overrated. I’m seeing this line as low as 6, so I’ll take a good value underdog.
    USC -7 / Utah State
    Packers -3 / Bengals – I like the Packers offense better than Cincy’s defense
    Bills +2.5 / Jets
    Panthers PK / Giants – Going against the public here. Panthers could have won both of their games so far. The Giants, not so much. The Giants won’t win until their backs are against the wall.
    Clemson (boo)

  13. tmoore94 says:

    Like the Cleveland Browns, I may be in the process of punting the 2013 season and looking ahead to 2014.

    But unlike the Browns, I may still be able to do something about the 2013 season.

    But like the Browns, I may not have the capacity to actually pull off an improvement.

    But here goes anyway:

    Stanford -9 vs. Arizona State

    Green Bay -3 at Cincinnati

    New Orleans -8 vs. Arizona

    Atlanta +1.5 at Miami

    Indianapolis +10.5 at San Francisco

    Essay Pick: Minnesota -6 vs. Cleveland

    I’ll be back with the essay later. Right now I’m off to fix a leaky toilet, which I’m hoping is not more enjoyable than watching the Browns game tomorrow.

    • tmoore94 says:

      Brian Hoyer gets the start today at quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. We all know the (still growing) list of quarterbacks who have started for the Browns since the team returned in 1999. That list includes such luminaries as Spergon Wynn, Thaddeus Lewis, Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, Ty Detmer, Tim Cough, Doug Pederson, Luke McCown, Ken Dorsey, Bruce Gradowski, Charlie Frye, Trent Dilfer, Brady Quinn and Colt McCoy.

      The one common element among that group (beside wearing the Orange and Brown)? They all lost their first start at quarterback for the Browns. Today, Hoyer gets to join the brotherhood.

      There are other reasons, of course, to go against everyone’s favorite team, like the Vikings holding a 10-3 record against the Browns all-time, or the Browns being 0-2 ATS vs. the Vikings since 2001, or the simple fact that the Vikings have Adrian Peterson and the Browns don’t.

      Factor that all in, throw in the fact that there is not a single person in the NFL not named Mike Lombardi that thinks Hoyer is a starting NFL quarterback, and it is not hard to envision the Viking putting together a late drive featuring Peterson to lock up the win and the cover.

  14. jmacdaddio says:


    Packers -3 over Bengals (Bengals will end up a strong 1-2, if that makes sense)
    Stanford -9 over ASU
    Maryland +6 over West Virginia
    Chargers +3 over Titans
    Saints -8 over Cardinals

    Essay: Lions +1.5 over Washington

    It seems that everyone in the USA except the Redskins fan base, the Shanahans, and RG3 himself know that RG3 is at best RG3 is at best RG2.1. The Lions can put up points, relatively speaking. The ‘Skins won’t be done after this loss since the NFC Least this year looks like a division where 8 wins might secure a playoff berth, but in the early phase of the season I don’t see the team adjusting to the New Normal of a mobile QB with two major knee surgeries under his belt just yet. Also I’m biased because Matt Stafford is my fantasy QB and therefore is destined to put up many, many points.

  15. Petefranklin says:

    Cheddar #1 Rice +2.5 I got it at 3 but I’m not going to let the contest lines dictate my picks any more. BTW you probably shouldn’t be gambling if you bet this @+2.5 as there are many 3’s out there

    Non cheese plays Maryland -5 over WVA(small)and OVER THE TOTAL (LARGE) a great QB and WR duo for Maryland that very few public bettors know about.

    EMU/Balls St- This all comes down to if Ballsy’s RB Edwards is playing, if yes Ball St minus, if not give me the home dog. With Ballsts top wr injured their main homerun threat is gone but they get their big plays from RB’s. I think he is playing so I would have laid the wood @ EMU’s homecoming, even though they have a big game with Toledo on deck……..It took me like three hours for that slight lean so this is a non play, thanks stupid random # generator!

    • jimkanicki says:

      everything the “Be a better bettor” post taught me says EMU in that game but, dammit, they got NO offense. gun to my head i’m going ball state but somehow the gun was removed from my head.

    • Petefranklin says:

      Should have stuck to Ballsy St instead of eating burnt Rice

      Cheddar plays:
      #2 Rams +4.5 Ill take the gift points as Dallas has been a horrendious favorite lately. Browns fans take note, even if the Clowns crawl out of the sewer someday they will only be Dallas(Jerry Jones- Haslem’s role model) good. Re-reading this after I wrote my essay made me suddenly sick to my stomach, no B.S.

      #3 NYG pk I hate that the line has moved so much as this is usually a sure loser(NFL line move of 2.5 or more) but I saw how lucky I got with Buffalo scoring so much late last week. That was with a QB in his second game. The Panthers lost 3 DB’s last week so Manning should be able to torch them if Martin doesn’t fumble away another game like week 1(I sure could use those 3 points right about now).One more thing, I liked the Gmen to bounce back last week but I could not pull the trigger with Peyton in the groove against a suspect Giant defense. The panthers QB (forgot his name) is very below average, especially if he is forced to score TD’s which Eli will make him do.

      #4 Steelers +2.5 as a home underdog. What have the Bears done to win a game, let alone dominate one? Nothing. Both games were gifts(sort of).This has got to be a playoff game for Pitts. Lose and they are done,win and they are 1 game out or even tied. The Steelers will look more like the Steelers on national TV and at least pass very well which should mean points. Can Mrs Cutler keep up? Doubtful, as they have the Lions next week and Jay is probably already having nightmares about Suh “turkeying” him.

      #5 Packers -3 NFL is a QB league and if I could pick 1 it would be Rodgers. If Dalton approached good, this Bengal team would be scary. He’s not, they’re not, and they have a short week after coming off an emotional Monday night win, over the Steelers to boot. The pack will use the pass to open up the run and the better ginger won’t be able to keep up with Rodgers.

      #6 ESSAY NYJets -2.5 over Buffalo. First road start for a rookie QB and they are not even getting a FG…count me in! The Jets defense is much better than Buffalo’s and gets 3 extra days to prepare. Yes I am backing a rookie myself but he is at home and doesn’t have a rookie head coach in his first road game as well. This will be an ugly game, but the Jets should do enough to get the win by three. I personally split my bet points and moneyline just to make sure. I mentioned it earlier Manuals comeback last week was because the Panthers lost 3 DB’s last week, the Jets are healthy and smell a divisional win

      Note I would love to bet the skins but cant, this will be the first time in 30 years where I haven’t backed the skins at home over the Lions. Maybe Ill have a change of heart tomorrow AM. Much like the Clowns don’t win on opening day (or on any day when it matters) the Lions ALWAYS lose in D.C.

      Another note if the Clowns win tomorrow they could be tied for first! BWWAAAAAAAAAHHHHAAAAHHAAAA!

  16. packers -3
    ball state -11
    north texas +33
    michigan state +7
    texas tech -27

    louisville -42.5

    typically i avoid lines of 35 or more for the favorites; too much is volatile in a situation like that — when will the starters come out? will the dog drain clocks or play a bit better than expected? but in this one, i think 42.5 isn’t even close to enough. fiu is an epically bad offense ranked near the bottom in almost every statistical category, and louisville needs to crush teams to keep teddy in the heisman voters’ minds and in the pollsters’ good graces. this one could get ugly fast.

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