IMPORTANT UPDATE:
Cheddar stalwarts CheddarClay, Probitive Favorite, CapGG, and Brosef seen at Bengals game tailgate.
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^^^ Brings me sheet music for obscure Godfather piano pieces. (Click to hear.)
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LATE LINE: AFA +10 at Nevada.
THIS WEEKS LINES ARE LINKED HERE.
THIS WEEK’S ALL PLAY IS WISCONSIN +7.5 AT OHIO STATE.
IPAD/MOBILEDEVICE USERS: THE STANDINGS ARE LINKED HERE.
AND REMEMBER TO DOUBLE CHECK MY ENTRY OF YOUR PICKS ON THIS SPREADSHEET.
Well that’s a lot of capital letters.
Hey ladies and gents, this is your Cheddar Bay open thread for week five. Treat it lovingly.
Well done on the LOBSTERFEST to player It’s Only Money. His winning ticket looked like this:
- Browns +6 – essay
- Bengals +6 – allplay
- Lville -42.5
- OSU -49.5
- Wisc -24.5
- Mizzou -3.5
Oh sure, it looks easy and smart now.
And speaking of the Browns, I seem to have staked out a position on Joe Banner and his plan for 2013 which is somewhat unpopular and that has been challenged on several fronts. (I see you Zara!) I apologize for not tending to this with replies or a follow up post… but hey, mom’s in town. She came out from Colorado to play my piano and see some Seacoast and of course making sure I’m good. So salty Banner critiques are on hold for just a bit. Having a morning Matcha Tea with someone playing “the mattresses song” from The Godfather renders one without salt.
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@ClevTA’s Skanky Fish Picks.
Skank Time: 8-2-1 since inception using Cheddar lines, 7-3 with real time wagers. True to the title of this post, there are a few special “hold your nose” picks below but just remember awful teams cover too.
College:
- Idaho +7.5 v Temple (Temple opened -9.5 down to 7, 65% of public on Temple) Pick: Idaho
- USC +5.5 v ASU (ASU opened -7 down to 4.5, 64% of public on ASU) Pick: USC
- Buffalo +1 v UCONN (UCONN opened -2.5 down to PK, 64% of public on UCONN) Pick :Buffalo
NFL:
- Rams +4 v SF (SF opened -4 down to 3, 68% of public on SF) Pick: Rams
- Browns +5 v Cinci (Opened Cinci -5 down to 4, 69% of public on Cinci) Pick: Browns
- Jax +9.5 v Indy (Opened Indy -9.5 down to 7.5,75% of public on Indy) Pick Jax
- Buffalo +3.5 v Baltimore (Opened Balt -4 down to 3, 67% of public on Balt) Pick: Buffalo
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Okay Cheddars, we’re due to regress progress to the mean eventually, but still we batted .417 last week so:
Let’s be careful out there.
kanick 
A rather inauspicious start to the 2013 cheddar season for Zarathustra. After last week’s debacle I decided that I have been far too cavalier with my picks and that it is time to get serious. So I loaded my 18 month old in the car and headed to the local psychic.
I parked the car at the strip mall where Madame Zosia plies her trade and cracked the window so the crying baby would have some fresh air. “Don’t worry baby, daddy just has an important meeting and shouldn’t be too long. Here are some pretzels in case you feel hungry.” Lol. Kids. I have to say I don’t see why everyone makes out like this parenting thing is so hard. It seems like the easiest thing in the world to me.
I approached the psychic’s door, but it was locked. Closed. She didn’t open until 10am and it was only 8:30 so I had some time to kill. Luckily right next door was a prestigious slot machine casino. And they were open. It was actually quite a coincidence as I needed some extra coin after my terrible start to the football season.
In the back of this establishment was a window where you purchase your credits to play the slots. I handed her a hundred dollar bill. “Any way that I can purchase some cheddar bay points too?” I asked exuding a charm that quite frankly very few possess.
“No,” she growled, “I have no idea what you are even talking about.” She studied me for a moment. “Have you been drinking? It’s not even 9am.”
“Don’t worry about it lady. How much for one of the bags of fritos?”
She handed me the small bag of fritos. “Complimentary when you spend $100.”
“Really? Nice.” Another score for Zara! I didn’t know that such a classy establishment was so close to my house. I definitely will make it a point to come back here.
I walked down the row of blinking screens. There was only one other person playing–an obese man in a motorized scooter that I could smell from several feet away. I tried to avoid this person, but we made eye contact. Immediately, I sprinted towards him and bowed worshipfully at his feet. “Guru-ji.” My rational mind was certainly aware of how ridiculous this was, but my rational mind had no power over the overwhelming love I felt.
The man chuckled, then wheezed, “stuck again Zarathustra?”
“I don’t understand.”
“Of course you don’t. You are lost in the illusion again.”
“Again”
“Oh Zara. My precious devotee. We have been dancing with each other for countless lifetimes.”
“Lifetimes?”
“Yes. And this is a mighty peculiar incarnation who have chosen this time around.”
“Me? It seems like you have chosen an interesting one yourself.”
“This was the only life that would allow me to reach you on this plane.”
“So you are just temporarily living in this person’s body to speak with me now?”
“Temporary? Very much so. But I have lived this incarnation since its human birth and will continue to until bodily death.”
“A lifetime? Just for this moment?”
The fat man sighed. “So lost….time is part of the illusion. A lifetime on the physical plane is but a blink of an eye. Science speaks of infinity. Religon speaks of eternity. And that is how long we will carry on with birth and death, death and birth.
“So if time is but an illusion then a realized being like yourself would have knowledge of the future?” I rubbed his smelly feet in devotion.
“That is a very crude way of putting it, but essentially yes.”
“Phew. Well am I glad to see you. I really need to turn around my cheddar bay season. What do you think about the giants on Sunday?”
“Zarathustra!!!! Wake up!!! I have come to bring liberation. And you ask about a silly football game?”
“I know.” I was chastened. “But, you know, this is cheddar bay. And if this isn’t reality then I don’t think I want to know any other. You said yourself: infinity. What’s the rush?”
“We’ll…the karma….” He sighed yet again. “Very well. You shall remain lost.”
“Listen, don’t take it personally. Like you said, karma…so, as I was saying, what do you think about the giants?”
“Giants? Stay away. For the all-play take the buckeyes. Wisconsin has the right coach, but they’re not yet ready to challenge Urban’s conference hegemony.”
“Ok. I already hit on the niners so I need four more.”
The fat man wheezed through a succession of wet coughs. “Oklahoma, LSU, Chicago Bears, and Seattle Seahawks.”
“The Seahawks? On the road? In Houston?”
“People still make a big deal about Seattle on the road forgetting that pivotal game in Chicago last year. You needn’t worry about them on the road any more. And around the same time that the Seahawks had their pivotal moment the Texans had theirs. They believed themselves contenders and then they made a trip to New England and realized that they most assuredly are not. They haven’t been the same since. They don’t believe they can beat Seattle.”
“Ok. Thanks a ton man. I started to walk away. “Oh, I almost forgot. The money play…”
He chuckled. “If you are pure and make the picks without any attachment then it is a lobster and it makes no difference. If not, then it doesn’t matter either as it is completely random.”
“Hmmmm. Ok. I guess I will go with Seattle for the money. Anyway, thanks again. I suppose there is no avoiding seeing you around.”
“No. There is no avoiding it.”
I left with my complimentary bag of fritos, deciding to play the slots some other time. What a crazy experience. A guru. Lol.
I returned to the car and the crying baby that awaited me. “Whew! Baby, did you poop? We better get you home so that your mommy change that diaper.”
Ravens
Ohio st (all-play)
LSU
Oklahoma
Bears
Seahawks***
You’re back!
I’m not sure how we got to this point, folks. Last week I did perform better…I got two picks right instead of one. In reflection, I was a little too swayed by public opinion and I think I tried a little too hard. Nobody likes the guy (or girl) who just wants to be liked.
Cheddar By is supposed to be fun. And when the word “battled” is used I just start having Shurmur-era flashbacks. ::shiver:: I owe it to myself, and to this forum to have fun and I’m sorry that I’ve been a Debbie Downer. I’m going to shamelessly play Cheddar my style this week.
Cheddar Bay Picks: Party Edition
All Play: OSU -7.5 -But wait, Katie, I thought you weren’t going to be swayed by public opinion? Isn’t taking OSU -7.5 a little…cliche? Sho’ is. I’ve had the privilege (bwahaha) of partying hard at both of these schools. Once at Wisconsin for a messy Halloween. I went as a very fake-pregnant Juno and ran into a hippie who looked at me and said, “me too!” Much to her dismay I wasn’t actually pregnant. Wisconsin, get your crap together. Some Badger points were earned back when we saw some guy with a popped collar and Purdue shirt- totally not dressed up for Halloween so obviously we snubbed him…until he explained he was dressed up as a Purdouchebag. Excellent.
Ohio State become a party school of choice late in my party-hearty career but was always a good time. Mostly with the Ag crowd and there’s just something really sweet about dedicating thirty minutes to how awesome it is that Budweiser understands the beautiful and intricacy of grass growing on a sports field.
If the game was at Wisconsin, my choice might be different, but I’m taking THE Ohio State for the All Play.
LSU +2.5 at Georgia: LSU is that school I’m glad I didn’t see before choosing an undergrad. That and Carnegie Mellon, but there’s no Cheddar line for the dashing Tartans. If you ever find yourself in Baton Rouge, have a drink and pizza for me at the Mellow Mushroom. There’s just something about Crawfish Boils, purple & gold, and snooty French influences that gets me every time. Geaux Tigers!
BGSU -15.5 vs. Akron: I’d be crazy not to include Bowling Green in my list of places I’ve partied. My punk rock, anarchist older cousin went there and I tried to get there as much as I could to study him and his friends. I remember drinking PBR from the pitcher at Howard’s watching my cousin’s band, dressed as characters from the Adult Swim channel for Halloween (is Halloween a party theme for me?) rocking out. They were called Midget Finger. With the promise of Pollyeye’s stuffed bread sticks after the game, the Falcons are going big.
Kent +2.5 at Western Michigan: Growing up in the Dirty ‘Burg (Twinsburg, OH), Kent State is essentially our pre-college drinking training grounds. Learning the “How To” of college partying at Kent State before going to a tiny liberal arts school is not advisable, trust me. You’ll look like a crazy lush upon arrival. KSU is family event though, my mom graduated from Kent and my darling little sister who defected from Bowling Green is back in action at Kent for her Insurance Studies degree. This game is going to be a hot mess, much like I was celebrating my 21st at Ray’s Place. The last time Kent State beat Western Michigan was the year I was born, it’s about time, boys.
Houston Texans +3 over Seattle: If you’ve never been to the Houston Rodeo, put it on your bucket list. Feeling down from any picks not going your way? Look up Mutton Bustin’. Where else can you learn to two step, eat a fried Snickers, sip on Jacks with a splash of Coke, and watch a Beyonce concert? Between rodeos, their Howl at the Moon, and almost partying with Ke$ha in the winter of ‘07, the Texans are going to put Seattle in their place. Injuries are the ultimate equalizer.
Essay Pick: Houston U Cougars -3 over the Roadrunners – One of the saddest things about football in North is the lack of hand signs. Texas A&M has “Gig’Em” with the awkward fist with the thumb on top, Texas Tech has “wreck ‘em” with the finger guns, and UT has “Hook’Em Horns” with a very punk rock configuration. The Cougars hand sign takes the brisket though. It’s the “shocker” except you hold the index and middle fingers apart and some variation include bending the fingers to be more claw-like. No matter how you spin it, anytime the Cougar hand sign is thrown, it is unmistakably the Shocker and who doesn’t love the double entendre of hand signs?
But seriously, the Cougars offense is productive, the Roadrunners defense is weak. The Cougars lead the mighty AAC in takeaways and the Roadrunners are going to be hurting by more than three points at the end of this matchup.
All the likes!
Haha, thanks. Please excuse the many typos- I’m amidst studying for a finance and org. development exams.
Also slight corrention/addition: Kent hasn’t won AT WMU since I wasn’t born.
(I HATE my free wordpress comment section that does not allow you to edit.. I’m the worst commenter and typically circle back for three/four edits. I also cannot adjust the comment section to extend beyond 80 before starting a new page.. steps –interesting steps/alliances– are being taken to upgrade the user experience ..)
Not a big fan of the hand signs, I have never done our silly “Hook’em Horns”.
If I had gone to a school that boasted “The Shocker” I may have been more enamored with hand signs.
Terrific post! When I was at UTejas I went to a seminal and much ballyhooed game at LSU against Miami. Miami was up by 85 points at the end of the first quarter and all of the southern belles were too drunk to say “Gowa Dalshton Hilliardeded”. Then one darling took pity upon me and led home the gorilla in the pink sweater. Best week of my life!!
Terrific post KTO, happy you are here, it makes me want to jump back 30 years and relive my egomaniacal ways.
And, please distract Nick so he does not leave me in his dust for at least a week or two.
ESSAY/ALL-PLAY: OSU -7.5 over Wisconsin
Real conversation I had with Devin Smith in class yesterday:
ME: Is Braxton 100%?
DEVIN: He’s looking sharp. I’d say 110%.
ME: Think you guys can cover 7.5?
DEVIN: Hell yeah.
Additionally, I spotted Braxton rocking a MONTREAL EXPOS cap Thursday, so you know he means business. He presumably feels slighted by the not-insignificant portion of Buckeye Nation clamoring for Kenny G to remain the starter, and understands that a signature performance vs. a ranked opponent (in primetime, no less) could vault him right back into the Heisman race. All the stats favor OSU (http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/9/26/4772854/ohio-state-wisconsin-football-preview-braxton-miller), and Bradley Roby is poor Joel Stave’s worst nightmare. I like what Roby had to say about playing at night (“I love night games – everybody’s watching. It’s electrifying. People have all day to get drunk and stuff like that so it’s going to be crazy.”), and Urban will definitely not lose a game this important to recruiting. Numerous 5-stars will be on the sidelines tonight, as will the world’s most effective recruiting tool, LeBron. BUCKEYES BY 20.
Florida State (-22.5) over BC because of what Frowns said.
Steelers (-1) over Vikings because Matt Cassell.
Browns (+5) over Bengals.
Falcons (-2) over Patriots.
Eagles (+11.5) over the Broncos because of Philly’s extra preparation time vis-a-vis Denver’s short week.
Shit yes I forgot about LeBron! Lighting up the Shoe like Vegas tonight, y’all.
And the rest of this, esp. Devin Smith, is awesome.
Busier than a bee here…I’ll go with kent state and Ohio state today, check in with the NFL slate tomorrow am.
Can I get half a point for predicting what bup’s essay pick is going to be?
Acting Chairman rules NO.
Because if it’s not the CMFBs I’ll eat my Colt McCoy jersey.
OSU -7.5 (all play)
LSU +2.5
thatsfine
Liking the State Universities this week
OSU -7.5 / Wisc
LSU +2.5 / UGA
FSU -22.5 / BC
Toledo +2.5 / Ball State
Illinois -24.5 / Miami (essay)
The Redhawks offense is putrid. They average 7 points/game with a whopping 149 yards of total offense/game. Last week’s total yards at home in their “rivalry” game vs. Cincinnati: 87 yards (80 passing/7 rushing). 0-11 on 3rd down. They only lost 14-0 due to Cincinnati’s own death wish. Illinois thrashed the Bearcats 45-17 just three weeks ago. Illinois is finishing off a 4 game homestand and coming off a tough loss to an underrated Washington. The MAC is weak, and Miami is one of the weakest. All signs point to a blowout.
NFL pick tomorrow
Houston Cougars -3 @UTSA
Kent St. +2.5 @WMU
@Mizzou -21 vs Arkansas St
AP: @OSU -7.5 vs Wisky
Essay:
Steelers -1 @Vikings
As much as I would love to see the Yinzers fall to 0-4, I can’t see it. Unfortunately, Minnesota’s defense is Todd Haley proof. The Vikings might have actually upgraded their QB position by Ponder being injured but Matt Cassel is a slightly better Christian Ponder without the hot sideline reporter wife. I see the Steelers winning comfortably and everybody hopping back on the train ( disclaimer: not a Big Ben joke)
Ohio State -7.5 vs .Wisconsin
Oklahoma -3.5 @ Notre Dame
Indianapolis -9.5 @ Jacksonville
New Orleans -6.5 vs. Miami
Chicago +2.5 @ Detroit
Baltimore -3.5 @ Buffalo
No idea on the essay pick, but it will be an NFL game
Essay: New Orleans -6.5 vs. Miami
There are plenty of statistical reasons to like the Saints tonight. New Orleans is 9-2 in Monday Night games under coach Sean Peyton. More importantly, the Saints are 8-2 at home on Monday night with Drew Brees at quarterback. And they are an identical 8-2 in covering the spread.
But sometimes it is just as easy to answer a simple question: If you had to bet that tomorrow morning either New Orleans or Miami would be 4-0, who would you take?
Troy+12 vs Duke – Both teams coming off two straight losses that can both score. Duke isnt exactly the toughest place to go play, and this seems like a lot of points.
**UNC -12 vs ECU – ECU seems to have decent defensive numbers until you realize Logan freaking Thomas tore them apart. Not to mention that offensive line of theirs gave up 7 sacks that game. UNC owns this series at 12-2-1 all time, and home field has been very kind to them where they average 47.6 points a game. UNC has an experienced QB in Renner and he should be productive today, especially with Eric Ebron, who has become the most productive tight end in the ACC.
Three college plays (including an essay) for the Prohibited Favorite, all three on national TV for your entertainment purposes.
The essay is about how there’s still time to hop on the Famous Jameis/Florida State bandwagon. After they conquer Death Valley in two weeks, not so much. They’re 12-1 for a BCS title shot as of today, which looks like the best odds on the board from here.
Much like it was obvious going into last NFL season that there hadn’t been a QB like Andrew Luck to enter the league in forever, the same is truer about Jameis Winston entering the college ranks because it’s hard to think of a legitimate comparison. Even the T-Peezy hype wasn’t close, and Winston has done nothing but exceed expectations so far, from his performance as a redshirt understudy under E.J. Manuel, to his flawless execution in his first three games as the Seminoles starter, including his first start, a conference win in a night game at Heinz Field against a Pitt team that really isn’t terrible. Winston is the second highest rated passer in FBS, and has completed an absurd (and nation-best) 78.1 percent of his throws.
This kid has been sizing himself up for LeBron’s shoes since he was a 15-year-old.
http://espn.go.com/high-school/football/story/_/id/7919785/two-sport-phenom-jameis-winston-bright-future-football-baseball
And it’s obviously paid off. The kid is as special as it gets, and just the kind to be the first freshman to lead his team to a national title since Bernie Kosar did in ’83.
http://deadspin.com/why-jameis-winston-will-be-your-new-favorite-college-fo-1099390591
Because the rest of the Florida State team, coming off its best season since the Bobby Bowden era, is loaded, including an offensive line that effectively returned 5 starters (technically 4) to one of the nation’s best units, a receiving corps that includes lock first round freak Kelvin Benjamin, and heir to the Creamsicle great, James Wilder Jr., at running back. The defense had more to replace, but Jimbo Fisher has been dominating the recruiting in his territory, and the Seminoles have reloaded in kind. (Right. Jimbo Fisher. But if Aaron Rodgers could lead Mike McCarthy to a Super Bowl.)
Boston College (Addazio!) on the other hand, is worse than the Pitt team that FSU ripped 41-13 at night in Winston’s first start, and comes home after getting beaten up by USC 35-7 in LA. 22.5 is a big number, but a bargain here. One of three more weeks to get in cheap on the Noles.
Will take Ohio State -7.5 and Ole Miss +15.5 as well, with three NFL picks to come tomorrow.
As noted by Borcas, LeBron lighting up the Shoe like Vegas tonight makes the Buckeyes the obvious pick and is sort of making me want to switch my essay.
Well I suppose I had that coming. At least the Buckeyes covered IRL!
I’ll take the Browns +5 and Eagles +11.5 today, please. Will be back for Monday Night Football.
Dolphins +6.5, please. The Saints haven’t really beaten anyone yet. Payton’s covering streak is the kind that’s meant to be broken on national TV. Too many folks thinking that the Dolphins can’t start the season 4-0.
Don’t you feel like we are going to find out after the season that Arizona State had a player shaving points or working with someone in Vegas? This is the third week in a row their game has been the biggest mover on the board since Wednesday. I am crossing a line thru Arizona State games as soon as the sheet comes out each week.
hitthehorns:
Rams +4 was a loser
Arizona Wildcats +10
Wisconsin +7.5
South Florida +19
Essay: Texans +3
Line has moved to Texans +1 on Pinnacle. I odds showing 68% on Seattle, so this qualifies as skanky whorebag fish game. Houston was a Super Bowl contender two weeks ago. From a football standpoint, this pick is the same logic I used for my Bengals pick last week. This is a game good teams win at home. A loss here doesn’t hurt Seattle. Seattle is missing three o linemen. The horns say Houston will win this outright
Final pick to come later.
Ohio State -7.5 over Wisconsin – All Play
@Western Kentucky +3 over Navy
Colts -9.5 over @Jags
@Cardinals +2.5 over Tampa Bay
@Chiefs -5 over Giants *essay to come tomorrow
Jets +4 over @ Titans
This essay is more of a heads up to anyone who was considering fading the Giants on this one. I took the Giants the past two weeks hoping to get some free points from the overreactions to the loss. This team is not getting production from their pass rush, without which the secondary cannot hold up and their FBS quality linebacking corps is flopping badly, while the running game has been a straight negative so far. I am sure I don’t need to tell anyone on here that this did not work out. So, I am swinging the other way and taking some of the public points who have not realized that the Giants have become atrocious. Naturally, I expect the Giants to win today, so consider yourself duly warned.
I will note, that I used this strategy to great effect last year with Western Kentucky (where I was fading them and changed to riding them), and was greatly saddened by the coach’s departure. Of course, I could not have been more delighted to find out this is where Petrino landed, and will be riding them again this year.
On a similar note, I have wanted to ride the Jets all season because I believed their demise was a little overblown. I have held back because they were favored last week, Thursday night game the week before, and something equally scary week one, but it looks like the Jets are still not getting the respect they deserve. Remember that Rex Ryan’s teams have won with dominating defenses (didn’t take a hit last year without Revis), and were sabotaged last year by all the weirdness.
Bevilacqua
All-Play: Ohio State (-7.5) over Wisconsin
It doesn’t matter who plays QB for the Buckeyes, Urban Meyer has this team rolling along. This OSU will cover.
Oklahoma State (-19) over West Virginia
WVU just lost to Maryland 37-0. Sports Illustrated keeps running these damning articles about OSU. Give me another OSU to cover.
Oregon State (-11) over Colorado
Colorado hasn’t played since September 7th. Give me yet another OSU to cover.
Colts (-9.5) over Jaguars
Looks too easy. Note: heading into Week 4, I haven’t won a single NFL pick this season.
Chiefs (-5) over Giants
Again, looks too easy. Only one of these will work.
Akron (+15.5) over Bowling Green
So a few years ago (2006, specifically) Temple was the Akron of college football. Temple hadn’t won a game in years (in Akron’s case, a real D-1 game), and yet they snapped their 20-game losing streak against Bowling Green while being double-digit underdogs. Al Golden went on to lift Temple back into respectability, he moved on to Miami, Temple got back into the Big East, Bernard Pierce is looking great for the Ravens, and now, like 7 coaches later, Temple sucks again and is playing in this shit American Athletic Conference. Somehow I’m getting that déjà vu feeling. This will be the week that Akron finally breaks through. They’ll win this one outright.
Coming off a Virgin Lobsterita to essay up with the Zips against the best team in the MAC is one of the ballsier things I’ve seen in this contest.
To use an Emmitt Smith word, last week I got debacled. Actually I came pretty close to a 4-point week that would have kept me above the dreaded red line, because Kansas State came within about three yards of covering. Until Jake Waters decided to slap one of his linemen on the butt with the football and Texas recovered. You may remember GERG celebrating that “clutch play” on the sideline like a man who just walked into a spider web. Gambling is stupid.
ALL PLAY: Ohio State -7.5 vs. Wisconsin
Alabama -15.5 vs. Ole Miss
Bama is the only team in the country I would lay this many points with against Ole Miss. Respect.
Tennessee -20 vs. South Alabama
Miami -19 vs. USF
Earlier this week Willie Taggart said that his starting QB, Steven Bench, who completed 8 of 23 passes two weeks ago against that juggernaut from FAU, was not much further along with the playbook than he was last week. Also he said that more freshmen are going to start playing. This team is HORRIBLE and tidbits like that don’t exactly fill me with confidence. I’m not convinced USF’s defense is as good as the numbers might suggest. They padded them pretty nicely against terrible Michigan State and FAU offenses.
Falcons -2 vs. Patriots
Kitchen Sink game for the Falcons, who cannot go three games down to the Saints this early in the season. Patriots are a very soft 3-0.
ESSAY: Chiefs -5 vs. Giants
Yeah, this seems like taking candy from a baby, but let’s look at this rationally. The Giants can’t get stops, they can’t run the ball, and Eli is an interception machine. Kansas City has a lot of talent on defense to begin with. You should read Stephen White’s take on how they slowed down Chip Kelly’s Eagles offense, which most teams are not equipped to do. They don’t need a lot of help from the opposing team, but New York seems likely to give them just that. The Chiefs already choked out a somewhat similar offense in the Cowboys, and that crowd is going to be absolutely wild. Plus Aaron Ross might still be involved. Even Alex Smith should be able to make him look bad.
Essay: New England: Hmm. Falcons need this game. Patriots don’t need this game. Brady has no weapons. Ryan has lots of weapons. Falcons are at home. Patriots are on the road. Matty Ice never loses at home. Matty Ice has weapons. Matty Ice has Tong G. Back to the beginning, Falcons need this game. They have to have it. They can’t go 1-3. New England is not good this year. Brady has no weapons. That’s the chatter I hear, and its all a bunch of horseshit. New England for my essay.
Others:
Rams (already a loser)
Buffalo (NCAA) over Uconn
Giants
Dolphins
All Play: Wisconsin. This line is pretty sharp, it kind of sucks we even have an all play. I’ll take Wisconsin as 7.5 is at least a key point to 1.5 value over what is out there now. I wish it was just 6 picks straight up so I could throw Central Florida in. On a side note, I am always amused reading these huge homer “analyses” of Buckeye games on here. If you are using the word “we” or the phrase “GO BUCKS” in your write up, I really hope you aren’t actually considering putting any real money on that opinion.
@Rams +4 v Niners (lose)
USU -10 @SJSU (win)
Wisc +7.5 @OSU. (all-play) Always a big Gary Andersen fan, not a huge Braxton Miller fan. Wisc QB Joel Stave has been a nightmare (although his sister’s diving-neck injury would rattle anyone) so Wisc is a one-dimensional offense. OSU 9th in rush defense; Wisc 3rd in rush offense but what do we really know given each team’s competition to date. I’m mainly following the money since the line has been been down to OSU -6.5.
@Minny +1.5 v Iowa. Floyd of Rosedale to the Gophers.
@UNM +2 UNLV. Game shows Skanky Fish tendency, TA’s essay, my Mountain West intel, and I think sometimes people confuse UNM and NMST.
***@Nevada -10 v AFA (essay)
In addition to this line opening at Nev -7 and moving to the current Nev -12.5, I also have the benefit of real life convos with AFA season ticket holders (my parents) this week to support this pick:
me: Mom who do you like in the AFA/Nevada game?
mom: Nevada. Wait where are they playing?
me: At Nevada.
mom: Nevada. Wait what’s the line?
me: Nevada -10.
mom: Nevada. They were dreadful to watch last week.
me: But I saw their first half at Boise and they looked good in the first half before Boise pulled away.
mom: Are you sure it was at Boise, I thought I saw them play Boise.
me: Yeah, pretty sure… the field was blue and all. It looks like Nevada’s getting Fajardo back this week too.
mom: You should ask your father about this.
me: Dad, what do you think of these Mountain West picks: USU -10, @UNM +2, @NEV -10, SDSU -18. (Also liking @Minny +1.5 Iowa).
dad: Could be the kiss-o-death, but I like Minny as my LOCK. I guess you ought to check for injuries. The past games sure look like the Gophers are the better team to me. Minnesota is my lock of the week. On the others, Utah State, New Mexico at home, New Mexico State … 18 might be too much, but neither team is great.
me: Ok, but on the Nevada game..
dad: Nevada in another blowout for the Falcons. Birds are too slow.
me: Interesting..
dad: Also, this: AF suspends Awini for unspecified violation – Yahoo Sports.
me: Now THAT’S good data.
dad: PS, find your Mom a good prime rib. She loves prime rib.
-Miami FL (-19) @ USF (A lot of points for an offense that struggles at times, but USF is absolutely turrrrrrrrible this year.)
-Illinois (-24.5) vs Miami OH (The OTHER Miami is also terrible, and Illinois has turned things around from last year’s debacle to look like a real live football team. I think Beckman will be looking to make a statement before conference play.)
-UConn (-1) vs Buffalo (I’m sure it’s one of the things that makes me a terrible bettor, but I just can’t follow a system that suggests I bet on Buffalo getting only one point. I just cant.)
-Cardinals (+2.5) @ Bucs (NFL coin flips, why not? Bucs are a couple DUIs away from being a runaway dumpster fire this season).
-Wisconsin (+7.5) vs OSU (Tough one to pick; if this were a Tressel-era team I’d take OSU in a heartbeat but I don’t know that I can trust this Buckeye defense to really pull away from the Badgers.)
—Missouri (-21) vs Arkansas St
Through a combination of weird beats, bad misreads (I thought Michigan would bounce back; looks like they might just be mediocre after all), and just misbegotten picks, I have been in a freefall. After the abject beating I have taken over the last few weeks, I feel like I’m barely even qualified to even attempt to justify my picks anymore. But but but….. I really like this one. Missouri has quietly looked strong to start, crushing Murray State, pulling away from a tough Toledo team and controlling an average Indiana team. Arkansas State has been awful on the road this year, including a nearly unfathomable 24 point loss at Memphis. Mizzou should be able to take care of business pretty easily here, and might be able to pull away big early. Or at least I really hope so.
jmacdaddio(@jmacdaddio)
Ohio State -7.5 over Wisconsin
South Carolina -7.5 over Central Florida
Ravens -3.5 over Bills (Ray Lewis is listed as questionable)
Bengals -5 over Browns
Lions -2.5 over Bears
Essay: Chiefs -5 over Giants
Once again I write my essay about the G-Men and how they’re not going to win. The spread on this game is something that makes me scratch my head in disbelief. It’s as if the oddsmakers are basing their opinions on this contest from 1986 archival footage. Or they’re adjusting because Giants bets tend to be made with emotion – Coughlin will get the troops motivated! Eli will put together a late game comeback! Well, when you’re down 38-0 it’s hard to pull off a comeback. I don’t see this as a blowout, but the Chiefs are on a roll while the Giants, not so much.
So through 5 weeks I am 0-5 on essays but still a respectable 14-10 ATS. It’s gotten to the point where friends are asking me to text them my essay pick so they can pick against it. So here we go for week 5 (is it really week 5 already?)
Wiscy +7.5 (All Play)
UCF +7.5
S. Fla +19
UK +13
Jax +9.5
Buffalo U +1 (Essay)
Classic letdown spot for Uconn after great showing last Saturday night + 65% public on Uconn and yeah this is my essay. Given my track record I don’t feel great about it. In fact my most confident pick is UCF but I’m purposefully not making that my essay because of that. Does that even make sense? Give me the Buffs in an outright win over Uconn 24-21 on late FG.
Other games I considered:
LSU but line scared me away. Seen 3.5 in other places but 2.5 no thanks
Duke – 10.5. Seen this up to 12 in some spots. Duke laying 12 is hard to pass up because they really don’t have any business being that big of a favorite over anyone, even Troy. Passed on this as well which I’m sure means they both win.
Ohio State -7.5 over Wisconsin
UConn -1, over Buffalo
Rice +14 over FAU
Cardinals +2.5 over Bucs
Arizona State -6.5 over USC
Essay: Wazzu +10.5 over Stanford
Sshhhh… don’t tell anybody, but Wazzu is on a 5-0 ATS streak. And Mike Leach is finally starting to get his players adjusted to the Air Raid that’s so damn entertaining to watch. Yes, Stanford will ball control and march it plenty, and they’ll probably win the game. But if the Cougars are down 17 in garbage time, they WILL score to cover. All an Air Raid system needs is a single crease, and they can break away at any point and put points on the board. And Wazzu’s defense isn’t anything to shake a stick at, finally getting the stops and turnovers needed to put a quick strike offense on the field.
Plus Pullman is becoming, dare I say it, a tough place to play?? Just a little too much here says Leach gets this one. That and the line has already been bet down to 9.5 in most places…
That Stanford-Wazzu game is in Seattle. And it’s going to be raining and very windy. Staying the hell away from that one.
miami -19 south florida ***
south carolina -7.5 central florida
LSU +2.5 Georgia
notre dame +3.5 oklahoma
OSU -7.5 wisconsin
ravens -3.5 bills
At this point it’s clear that South Florida isn’t quite the program that people thought it might be a few years back. And Miami – well – they might not be quite the program they once were either, but going 4-0 – which they are about to do – is certainly a nice start. The hapless Bulls, on the other hand, are (blow-out loss to terrible teams) winless. Consider last week: the Bulls lost by 18 points to FAU, when their QB completed exactly 8 passes (he threw 23), and they didn’t put any points on the board after the first quarter . I mean – I know this formula doesn’t always work, but it has to mean something that when Miami played FAU earlier this year they won 34-6. The Bulls do have a good running back in Marcus Shaw, but he’s really their only offense. It makes it worse that he’s about to face a defense that has only allowed 3 touchdowns so far this year. Miami begins conference play next week – maybe the fact that this is a potential trap game explains why they aren’t giving even more points to the Bulls? – but the X’s and O’s simply don’t add up to anything but a drubbing here.
I’ll speak for Chuckycrater as well as myself, two of the most prominent USF alumni voices on the interwebs, in saying this is a spectacular essay and dead on. And if we didn’t have a soul, we’d be right there with you. Very possible USF loses by 50 tomorrow.
AP: Wisc +7.5 over @tOSU (That’s a big .5 – Sconnie always plays the Buckeyes tough)
Stan -10.5 over @Wazu (neutral site game in Seattle)
*****@Browns +5 over Bengals
Seahawks -3 over @Texans (Texans have not looked good yet this year)
Bears +2.5 over @Lions (Lions are lucky but the Bears are good)
@Chiefs -5 over Giants (Giants are a mess and Chiefs look tough)
***** This is the prove it week for the Browns, they shocked the world by winning in the Twin cities last week. Now they have an opportunity to show how legit they are. Josh Gordon’s return was even better than expected. Cameron is emerging as a stud TE. Expect the Browns to exploit the passing game against a majorly banged up Bengals Defense. Now, Hoyer is no Aaron Rodgers, but should be able to show some of that same magic this week against the Bengals. The Browns Defense should be going like gang busters again on Dalton and the run game. Phil Taylor has a major chip and Mingo gets his first start. In a close game I think the Browns crowd stays supportive of Hoyer as he is the most popular man in town (for now).
West Virginia Mountaineers +21
Ohio State Buckeyes +7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5
Houston Texans +3
New Orleans Saints -5
*** Atlanta Falcons pick
Matt Ryan is 34-3 at home as a starter in the regular season, and to me, the Patriots are an overrated squad that has struggled to beat three garbage teams. Forget the fact the Pats are 3-0 and the Falcons are 1-2. Atlanta is the better team and isn’t even laying points here at home, where they’ve been dominant. Gronk and Amendola both still gimpy as well. Brady has no talent to work with on offense to work with, and it has showed. 27-13 Falcons.
Kanick pick #2: USU -10 @SJSU.
OK -3.5 @ ND – This ND team hasn’t looked right this year. Rees may not turnover the ball like he once did but in todays college football you cant have a QB who is statue in the pocket
Oregon -37.5 vs Cal – Oregon wants to one up the Buckeyes and they are currently running 9-1 ATS
Jets +4 @ Titans – I don’t believe in Locker
Saints -6.5 vs Dolphins – No Wake. No problem for Brees.
AP: OSU -7.5 vs Wisconsin – Buckeyes need style points because the quality wins really don’t exist on their schedule.
Essay: Falcons -2 vs Pats – Last week I dumpster dove with the Jags & ended up covered in it rather than covering. So this week I will go with a good team who needs a win.
It just feels like next week should be the week that the pundits question the Pats. The issues they have going into this game are well documented (Gronk, Amendola, etc). Falcons are coming off a loss and need this win to keep pace in the NFC. Meanwhile Pats are sitting pretty at 3-0 and don’t need a win against an NFC opponent. Pats D has faced 2 rookies & a guy who was just benched so Ryan & company should be the first real test.
HE GOT AN ESSAY RIGHT!
Trying to build on last week’s mediocrity which is better than my previous weeks…
All Play: Ohio State -7.5 vs Wisconsin. I’m buying what the Buckeyes are selling. And Wisconsin is overrated.
LSU +2.5 at Georgia.
Atlanta -2 over New England.
Kansas City -5 over NY Giants. Chiefs at home vs train wreck of a Giants team.
Browns +5 over Cincinnati. Two reasons. One, stanky fish. Two, defensive backs dropping like flies in Cincy.
Essay: Denver -11.5 vs Eagles
Why? Well first let me refer you to my reasoning from last week- “The second is roll with Peyton Manning and the Broncos until they lose. Is Manning the best regular season QB ever? I think he might be. There also is no other QB I would trust the week after losing his left tackle for the season.”
That goes double for this week. The Eagles’ defense is giving up 28.7 points per game. The Broncos are scoring points in bulk. Denver’s defense is good and they are at home to boot. It’s a lot of points to give up, but I’m riding Peyton Manning like he’s Secretariat.
1. Already entered a stink bomb selection yesterday- Rams (L)
2. All Play- OSU -7.5: Line down to 6 but I don’t care. Night game at home vs a mediocre QB, stack the box and stop the run. Wisconsin hasn’t seen the speed on offense that OSU has on the field. Line move very similar to ASU/Stanford last week and we know who covered that game. As an aside I kind of wish that Browns & Buckeyes were excluded from all plays. Just seems like everyone bets with their hearts. Would rather see all plays in marquee games without the local bias. Georgia/LSU would’ve been cool and would give extra reason to pay attention. But just my two cents though.
3. New Mexico +2 (Essay): Only at cheddar bay can N Mexico/UNLV be the apple of my eye. UNLV favored on the road?? Check these trends out. UNLV is 5-23-3 ATS in their last 31 road games. They are 0-3 in their last 3 road games as favorites. That’s not even the stunning part, it’s that they lost those 3 games on the road as favorites by a total of 67 points (22.3 per game)!! They were favorites and got destroyed each time and those were to pretty bad teams themselves in Colorado St, Hawaii and ironically New Mexico back in 2011. Now don’t get me wrong, New Mexico is awful as well but the one thing they do well UNLV struggles on defense against- stopping the run. New Mexico is ranked 13th nationally in rushing yds/game and they run it an astonishing 76% of their plays (3rd nationally) while UNLV is 103rd in the nation stopping the run on a yards/attempt basis. Arizona ran the ball for 397 yards against UNLV and lowly Western Illinois even put up 197 on the ground. Somehow 64% of the public money (covers.com) thinks it’s a good idea to back UNLV as a road favorite here and the line hasn’t budged. Give me Los Lobos here.
4. Jets +4: I’ve been on the Jets all season and I have liked Geno since the draft. He showed me a lot last week and I appreciate his aggressive throws down the field vs the dink and dunk of Sanchez. Jets defense has been outstanding and as a team the Jets rank #2 and #3 in net first downs/play and yds/play. This should be low scoring and I like getting points in that case.
5. ATL -2: Falcons are 21-3 ATS after a loss in last 24. NE has barely survived against a subpar schedule so far. Probably should’ve lost to both Buffalo and the Jets. Their defense isn’t nearly as good as it has shown against 3 young/mediocre QBs. I think ATL wins by double digits.
6. Jax +9.5: out of principal. Indy is banged up and should let down after beating SF on the road. I mean this line indicates that if it was being played in Indy they’d be 15.5 point favorites. That’s ridiculous. Line is down to 7/7.5 so the smart money has come on Jacksonville’s side. Plus I know most people on here have no stomach for the Jags so Im not too worried about copy cats.
Ohio ST -7.5 vs Wisconsin (All Play)
Northern Illinois -3.5 vs Purdue
Baltimore -3.5 vs Buffalo
Chicago + 2.5 vs Detroit
Dolphins +6.5 vs New Orleans
Kent St +2.5 vs Western Michigan (Essay)
I follow Kent State pretty well and I know this team isn’t nearly as good as last season’s Darrel Hazel run program. But Dri Archer hasn’t played much this season due to injury and the running and return game isn’t even in the same discussion without him. Just looking at the 59-3 loss @ Iowa by WM even though they hung in there better vs Michigan St and Northwestern shows there are a lot of holes that can be exploited. I have a hunch that Kent St is still a .500 team and they will work their way back starting with an outright win over Western Michigan.
i feel happy about acto and frownie on top of the leader board. good job buddies 🙂
Thank you p_,
However, this is merely further proof that gambling is for suckers. You met me, I am not exactly the sharpest knife in the tree and I make these picks without any clue of what the really knowledgeable gamblers here are writing about. The only way to explain my very temporary moment in contention for the playoffs and my precarious perch at the top of the leaderboard is that “even a blind dog finds a bone once in awhile.”
Confirmed re: Acto and the brightest crayon in the shed, but the credited response to the Prohibited Favorite and his not quite yet rightful place in the standings is despair.
Bears +2.5 @ Lions Doooon’t Care!
OSU -7.5 vs. Wisconsin Duh.
FSU -22.5 vs. Boston College Winston is legit.
Dolphins +6.5 @ Saints Measuring stick game for Miami.
Hawaii +17.5 vs. Fresno State That’s a very early game for Fresno.
Broncos +11.5 vs. Eagles
One mile high, and that air gets very, very thin. Denver is used to it, and Philly isn’t, and with the non-stop nature of Chip Kelly’s offense, I think the Eagles run themselves into the ground, both on offense and defense. Denver should have more left in the lungs at the end of this game and will pour it on in the second half. As long as Peyton keeps playing flawlessly and Vick makes his usual mistake or two (more likely given the fact that he’s going to be breathing that thin air), Denver should take this easily. I’ll throw a few extra facts as a cherry on top. Philly is giving up the 4th most passing yards in the league – now facing the number one passing offense. Philly has been running the ball well, but now runs into the number one rushing defense in terms of yards allowed per game. Rodgers-Cromartie will be familiar with his old practice-mate Jackson. Denver by 14 as long as they don’t let off the gas too much at the end.
Essay/All Play: Ohio State -7.5 vs.Wisconsin: This reminds me a lot of the the Nebraskas game last year. Ohio State is going to crush Wisconsin. Braxton has to have a big game to answer all the Kenny G lovers out there and he will. This kid is better than Kenny G and hes going to be on a mission to prove it under the lights at the Shoe. Wisconsin’s strength is the run which I feel is the strength of O-State’s defense. Our defense was beat by a nice passing attack from Cal not the run.
I think it also makes sense to look at what another top ranked team did against Wisconsin’s only loss of the year. Lets see here Stanford vs ASUL: Stanford completly dominated and ASU scored 21 pts in garbage time. I expect more of the same from Ohio State at home under the lights at The Shoe.
New Orleans -6.5 over the Dolphins. The Saints are a different team at hime and a lot better team with Sean Peyton. NO rolls in prime time infront of their crazy fans in the superdome.
Stanford -10.5 @ Washington State. Stanford is a great team with a great coach. WSU will be over matched and lose by 2 TD’s
Chicago +2.5 @ Detroit I love this Bears team they are my surprise pick for the Super Bowl. This defense is going to create TO’s and scoring ops for Cutler and this revamped offense. If you look at this offense and the change I get jealous that we didn’t hire Trestman. Forte is getting 20+ touches a game, Cutler isn’t getting sacked, and Brandon Marshall is a BEAASSTT. This defense is what its been since 2012 a TO and point scoring machine. Detroit wins a close one here
Browns +5 vs Cincinnati: This is my skanky fish play of the week.
Minnesota +1 vs Pittsburgh Pittsburgh is awful and I’m going to bet against them everytime they are favored. Jared Allen may kill Big Ben this week and Matt Cassel could potentially add a passing threat to the mix. Not to mention the Vikings lost because the made a bone headed play on a fake FG last week. Great W by the Briwns but they threw the Kitchen sink at them to win. They’ll be ready this week and AP is due for a monster game.
Ohio St -7.5 over Wisconsin (ALL PLAY)
UCF +7.5 over South Carolina
Washington St +10.5 over Stanford
Mississippi +15.5 over Alabama ***
Steelers -1 over Vikings
Cardinals +2.5 over Bucs
*** I’m still not convinced that Alabama is even close to the power house that it has been the previous two years. The only game their offense has looked good was against a flat out terrible A&M defense (Kanicki, Frowns, and I could put up 30 on that Aggies team in a pick-up game.) Bama’s offense is averaging 371 ypg (2nd worst in the SEC) partly because their offense line just isn’t good. Ole Miss is coming off of a bye after slamming Texas two weeks ago. Their no huddle offense is racking up points this year and gave Bama problems last year even though they only scored 14 in that game (which was double the average of any team.) I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset here and will gladly grab the 15.5.
Kanicki, any problem with a last minute change? If so, I need to take off my homer pick with the Steelers and replace them with the Lions -2.5 over the Bears. If this is a problem let me know. Otherwise I appreciate the update. Also I note that Ole Miss is my big pick and its listed as the Cardinals on the spreadsheet.
got it; thanks for double checking me.
All Play: Wisc +7.5 vs Buckeyes
Houston U -3 at Tex San Antonio
Oklahoma -3.5 at Notre Dame – I agree with Frowns. In fact I came to that conclusion Tuesday when I had lunch with a guy from Oklahoma City, big sooner fan, who also happened to be an avid trail runner in his free time. They had Quarterback issues to start the year, but once they finally settled on Bell for their QB, things got in gear. He said they would cover.
Minny -1.5 vs Iowa – I think the gophers are legitimately good.
Titans -4 vs Jets
Essay Pick: Cards +2.5 vs Bucs
For the 2nd week in a row, Arizona flies out East for a 1pm game. Last week they got crushed in New Orleans, and this week they are in Tampa. It’s routine for them now, players’ bodies will have adjusted to the travel. After this week, Arizona doesn’t have an EST game until the Jags on Nov 17th, so the players know this is it for cross country flights for a while. So I think they are going to have extra incentive due to the way their schedule lines up. Extra points when one your guys loses part of his finger the week before, tweets pictures of it, and plans to play.
I like this pick more when you consider the Bucs current situation. They spent a lot of money this offseason and they are winless. So far the money did not pay off and Schiano is cracking. He said starting Mike Glennon this week is beneficial because Tampa’s bye week is next week, and Glennon will get 2 weeks to prepare for his 2nd game against the Eagles. I mean…that’s certainly not a ringing endorsement that the Bucs will light it up this week.
Kent State +2.5
Ball State -2.5
Rice -14
Notre Dame +3.5
Ohio State -7.5 Essay
Browns + 5
Love the Buckeyes this week. Purdue is a bad football team and couldnt stop the run last week against Wisky. I think Ohio state wins this by double digits easily. Braxton will be back this week and if he’s rusty they won’t hesitate to throw Guiton in who is a better passer any way IMO. If OSU can stop the run and Double Team Abredarius Bucks will be fine! GO BUCKS!
All Play: OSU -7.5 vs Wisconsin
Essay (skipping this week): LSU +2.5 @ Georgia
Seahawks -3 @ Texans
Broncos -11.5 vs Eagles
Dolphins +6.5 @ Saints
49ers -3 @ Rams
hitthehorns:
Rams +4
If we Cheddarheads had totals I would definitely be on the Rams under tonight. Luckily we do have them in Vegas and I am on the under 43 sprinkled with some Rams moneyline. If Iowa St was +3 in the contest I would be on board with them too. G.L.all!
That’s it!!^^^^^
ROLLLLLL TRIBE!!!
Never fear rams backers I am here bearing glad tidings. Not only does a wager on the niners tonight scream “sucker” for innumerable reasons(swear to god, I fricking lost count of stupid reasons for why this is so dumb) but I have demonstrated over my cheddar years an abysmal record chasing mid-week action. Add in the karmic reasons of being opposite kannicki after giving him the business this past week and you might as well load up on the Rams moneyline, because the home team is sure to prevail tonight.
Nevertheless, for one point tonight I would like
Niners -4 @Rams
Thursday night pick (I’m doing it for Bernie!!!!)
SF -4 @STL
I think I’ll hop in on the Rams +4 too for tonite.
Love me some Thursday night NFL home ‘dog, so give me some of that sweet Rams +4 v. 49ers action.
More to come…
Week 5:
All-play: Ohio St. -7.5 v. Wisconsin. Picking what I want to happen, refusing to give it any more thought than that.
1. loss Rams +4 v. 49ers: Bad pick for right reasons. Thursday night short week home dogs.
2. Buffalo +1 v. UConn: UConn played above it’s weight class last week, improbable to get up to play Buffalo this week. And it’s a TA Skanky Fish!
3. No. Illinois -3.5 @ Purdue: The best of #MACtion against the littlest #B1G.
4. Houston -3 @ UTSA: Love me some Roadrunners, but they emptied the cupboard last week.
It’s time for some medicine. My football picking is sick and not in a 1990s white-suburban-kids-pretending-to-talk-like-urban-kids sick means awesome kind of way. They are sick in a my-cheddar-season-and-bankroll-is-preparing-to-speak-with-a-hospice-nurse kind of way.
So I wandered out to my local witch doctor/bookmaker/mentor for some advice. He said, “Son, I’ve told you once, I’ve told you 100 times. When you’re up against it — and the breaks are beating the boys — you go out there and play more #MACtion. Play all the #MACtion. Play any #MACtion. I am a walrus. Goo goo g’joob. *bong hit* *cough* *cough* *vomits* *passes out*”.
As I leave my guru to nap in his own regurgitate, I think to myself, “Self, this man is right! Psychotic, but absolutely right! Much like more cowbell is the cure for some Blue Oyster Cult, extra doses of MACtion will absolutely cure what ails me. I need some MAC v. American… check. Give me some MAC over B1G… check. And most importantly, I need a little MAC on MACtion.”
But where in the MAC universe can I go? Do I stumble north of Findlay and try Akron-BG? Tempting, but that number is too hot. Might I try Akron’s neighbor heading to one of the Michigan Directonals? Ah, but Kalamazoo this weekend is much too cold.
Now Muncie, Indiana. That feels just right. Pete Lembo. Now there’s someone who will take care of me. He looks like your stereotypical stat nerd. He’ll spend his week in the nerditorium strategerizing some point a second shit. And a QB named Wenning! That’s practically winning! Yes, yes, it all makes sense. Ball State Cardinals (-2.5). Ball State. Ball. Football. It’s all too perfect. Holy Toledo! Wait, they’re playing Toledo? Woah! *passes out into street*
Other plays:
Cal + 37.5 @ Oregon
Miami -19 @ USF
Oklahoma St. -19 @ West Virginia
Akron +15.5 @ Bowling Green
Troy +10.5 @ Duke
Minnesota +1.5 v. Iowa
Kent St. +2.5 @ Western Michigan
Hawaii + 17.5 v. Fresno St.
USC +6.5 @ Arizona St.
New Mexico +2 v. UNLV
An essay in the Cuuuugs style, nicely done.
Skank Time: 8-2-1 since inception using Cheddar lines, 7-3 with real time wagers. True to the title of this post, there are a few special “hold your nose” picks below but just remember awful teams cover too.
CFB:
1. Idaho +7.5 v Temple (Temple opened -9.5 down to 7, 65% of public on Temple) Pick: Idaho
2. USC +5.5 v ASU (ASU opened -7 down to 4.5, 64% of public on ASU) Pick: USC
3. Buffalo +1 v UCONN (UCONN opened -2.5 down to PK, 64% of public on UCONN) Pick :Buffalo
NFL:
1. Rams +4 v SF (SF opened -4 down to 3, 68% of public on SF) Pick: Rams
2. Browns +5 v Cinci (Opened Cinci -5 down to 4, 69% of public on Cinci) Pick: Browns
3. Jax +9.5 v Indy (Opened Indy -9.5 down to 7.5,75% of public on Indy) Pick Jax
4. Buffalo +3.5 v Baltimore (Opened Balt -4 down to 3, 67% of public on Balt) Pick: Buffalo
Cheddar me Rams +4 for pick #1 this week. thanks
First play: Iowa State +2.5 at Tulsa tonight
Others later
All play: Wisconsin +7.5
SUNY Buffalo +1 vs. UConn
Buffalo Bills +3.5 vs. Ravens
Bengals -5 at Browns – I’ll wait and buy the discounted tickets for the Brian Hoyer Express
Kent State +2.5 at WMU
Kent State has been busy getting back to reality as the inferior team in 3 straight weeks, and especially so in the last two at LSU and Penn State. Last year’s money games at Kentucky and Rutgers were made in a different galaxy. The Flashers, as Bernie would say, also played those games without Dri Archer. They weren’t winning them with Josh Cribbs and Jack Lambert.
Dri’s return + Western being absolutely horrendous + goofy line movement here + Western being absolutely horrendous = this being my essay pick, one in which I clearly don’t trust after Pitt scored 58 points and did not cover last week.
Rough game, this picking. Rough game Saturday, hopefully, for Western. The MAC is back to being absolutely terrible and here’s guessing WMU is one of the terriblest.
Va Tech +7.5 (at GT)
Rams +3 (vs 49ers)
Falcons -2 (vs Patriots)
Saints -6.5 (vs Dolphins)
AP: OSU -7.5 (vs Wisc)
Essay: Alabama -15.5 (vs Miss)
This is painful to do, but seems just way too low. I was guessing this would be 20 points. Bama has destroyed Va Tech on the road, were destroying a much better Texas A&M team on the road until they let off the gas and Johnny Football did things that the Ole Miss QB will not be doing, and then Bama finally got to come home last week and handled Colorado State. The only red flag was that CSU game where they won by much less than expected (31-6) but seriously can’t expect them to get up that much for such a dumb game. Now, they get a ranked Ole Miss team on Saturday evening on ESPN: should not be hard to get up for that.
I guess Ole Miss is supposed to be decent, but hard to say winning at Texas and Vandy mean a whole lot. Those teams are not bad or anything, but they are not enough evidence to think this Ole Miss team will do better than the last 2 years (33-14, 52-7).
Lastly, I suppose Ole Miss could benefit from being off last week. Or they wont be ready for Bama’s speed. Or Bama will benefit from “being off” last week too against Colorado State. So that is all a wash. So I see a really good Bama team getting off to a nice lead and not letting off the gas as they did against a much better A&M.
Hey Kanick,
49ers -4 @ Rams
More to come Saturday
Week 5 Picks
All Play
Ohio State (-7.5) over Wisconsin – The game for OSU to worry about is Northwestern. Not this one.
Idaho (+8) over Temple – That was shocking for me to even type…here is the thing I have been watching Idaho for over a year get the tar beat out of them weekly waiting for something anything to piss them off. I finally saw it at the end of the WSU game when Paul Petrino and Captain Dickhead exchanged words. Finally…get mad…Idaho welcomes a terrible Temple team to their linen closet and get it together.
Titans (-4) over Jets – The Jets can’t be 3-1. Just can’t happen.
Saints (-6.5) over Dolphins – Just ride the trend with Payton and Brees.
Wyoming (-12.5) over Texas State – Love this Wyoming team.
Essay Pick
One of the main reasons that I am a fan of the writing of Drew Magary is that for years I thought I was the only person who thought that Gregg Easterbrook was just the worst thing that ever happened to football writing on the web. Turns out when I started reading the weekly evisceration by Drew I felt much better about myself and society in general.
Well the glue factory next to Gregg was working overtime this week because this moron thinks the air is coming out of the 49ers balloon and then proceeds to try and justify why Alex Smith was the better option for the 49ers trying to use a completely unrelated 3-0 start in KC. Sometimes I wonder how these people get paid to type words for other people to read.
There are people that want to give up on the 49ers? Give up on Kapernick?
Sorry…St. Louis.
The thing about great teams is that they understand the importance of Youngstown, Ohio and they send messages when everyone in America is watching.
San Francisco (-4) over St. Louis
AP Ohio State -7.5 over Wisc
UCF +7.5 over South Carolina
Florida State -22.5 over Boston College
UTEP +14 over Colorado State
LSU +2.5 over Georgia
****Super Terrific Happy Fun Fun Essay****
Kansas City -5 over Giants
How can an 0-3 team going away to play a 3-0 team only be a 5 point underdog? I do not care how great you are as a (i dispise this phrase), “Clutch Quarterback”, I do not care that you are great in the playoffs and that you fell from that amazing Mississippi Baobab/Manning QB tree.
What have you done for me lately? I am certainly not a stats guy, every game and every play is for the most part an independent event, but Eli Manning has been trying to do too much to save his team and Alex Smith, (who happens to be a good quarterback by the way), has had to merely be an important cog in what thus far this season has been a well oiled machine. So, here is the important stat. Alex Smith has not thrown an interception so far this year and Eli Manning leads the league with 42 interceptions in only three games.
The Giants can however, rely on their terrific defense to keep them in the game until…. no, wait, that was years ago.
If Brandon Flowers plays and he is not too hampered by his injury, this should be an easy game for KC. The Giants best and perhaps only chance is if JPP, Tuck, and Mat Key-something can smear Alex Smith around in the Arrowhead turf to make him look like Pig-Pen by the end of the first quarter.
I need to get a win to regain some contest confidence, so I’ll Take Va Tech +7.5 tonight. Hokies have been practicing the last 2 SUNDAYS for GT’s option. I know it’s a short week but the Hokies have 7 defensive starters and 31 defensive lettermen back from last year. Hokies QB sucks and hopefully he doesn’t blow it against a beatable GT defense.I just did some more checking of odds and the Yellow Jackets are a smelly fish, therefore this is now my essay pick. I just bet them at +7 here in Vegas so I feel really comfortable with the +7.5 that the contest offers up. I looked at the LVH money coming in and I read it like the wiseguys got the game @ +8 knowing that was good value. The followers who were pretty sharp drove the line down to +7 where the wiseguys who alread had +8 in their pockets and the Tech backers took the +7 last night, driving the line back up to 7.5. The line got beat down to 7 with most bets on GT (55%). I look for a close game with the Hokies keeping it close with their defense even though it’s a short week. If the game happens to go into OT I wont be sweating it catching 7.5 either.
ESSAY PICK: Va Tech +7.5
#2 Utah St. -10 over SJ st. A little high on the line but QB keaton is on a roll for the Aggies. I wouldn’t mind seeing him in a Browns uniform next year. I was doing some “celebrating” when I put ole Johnnie up last night.
seems a reasonable bet that the top qb in next year’s draft won’t be in the top ten but a second/third rounder like derek carr or chuckie keaton.
He passes my eye test, although Im not sure about his arm strength. He sure is accurate on the move though.
#3 Ole Miss +15.5 over Alabama. This line is coming down hard for a reason. Did you know that QB mcCarren lost his hottie girlfriend? His mind just can’t be in a game where they are two TD favorites. It’s also a better line than I bet it at.
this is good data…
#4 AP Wisconsin+7.5 over OSU Someone has to take the Badgers. I think you all are wearing scarlet colored glasses. I may be wrong but it’s a big # to cover here. Miller may actually hurt the Bucks here. Mostly I need to move up in the standings, so a contraryian play is warranted in the contest.
A couple totals that seem hot to me are Denver Broncos OVER 57.5 and North Carolina OVER 60, although its 61 now in most places. I think if you straight bet them you shouldn’t lose more than juice. I hit them pretty hard.
I ran into,and talked with a couple wiseguys(cappers/touts) from Cleveland downtown at the Nugget today. One bet the Browns +4.5. We were BSing about west side Cleveland , he went to Marshall with Phil Steele, and I asked him what he thought of the Browns this week. He told me he bet them, I asked him why as I rolled my eyes, and he said the line is three at Cris so it was a middle opportunity only. We talked about the Tribe and we both said at the same time that they would lose their one game playoff in Tampa, and we both liked Tampa to go far! His buddy got pissed that he didn’t get any +4.5 because they moved the line to 4 while he was making his contest plays. Another so called wise guy, Big Al McMordie, went against my OVER play on the Broncos, taking under 58, although I did not see him bet it and I am sure I will have more riding on the over than he has on the under. He is a technical guy and that just doesn’t take into account the new style of offense. To each his own but I wanted to pass this along as I usually do my thing with zero interaction with others.
One more thing, I ran into a media guy also, who is definitely sharp, and I asked him about the NFL this year. My assumption was that there were huge traps and this was going to be a public year. He agreed strongly but didn’t seem like he wanted to switch things up just yet, like I am doing by concentrating in NCAA for now.
Cheddar Bay + moms. The best. I predict 60++% this week for the group.
“Schiano is so jank” was the line of the week last week, and Concierge’s UTSA essay with Acto’s “inside info” blind item to confirm is what the Bay is all about.
If someone can explain why Oklahoma -3.5 at Notre Dame isn’t the Lock of the Century, I’m all ears.
For the same reason Texas has not fallen into the Gulf of Mexico!
Oklahoma Sucks!
OK nevermind I think I sort of like Notre Dame here, but will probably lay off.
By the way, the inside info was from a player and a coach at UTSA, both of course shall remain nameless.
The info was that they were going to throw the kitchen sink at the Miners with a lot of new looks that they had not used before, but had been working on for a long time. UTSA wanted to really pull off a big win in their first conference game. I have only had time to watch a little bit of the game, but it was obvious that UTEP was not prepared and they underestimated UTSA. I watched it at about 3:30am this morning, but I was awake enough know that I should trust my guys when they tell me good stuff from now on.
yeah that concierge might could knows some things about college and pro football.
Hi Mom! *waves*