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Cheddar Bay is off to a slow start this year. Our weekly win rate has gone from 48.7% to 44.6% to 44.0% as of Monday night. Compare to last year (49.0-40.2-49.7) and 2011 (49.5-48.8-45.4) and we’re down a tad.
(Note: we always figure it out after the slow start. We closed positive in those last two years: 2012, 50.9%; 2011, 51.0%)
These numbers got me thinking about ‘systems.’ I try a ‘system’ every year. This year I studied the ATS records of college head coaches. Last year I forget what it was but it didn’t work. Year before that it was random blue grass pioneers. (e.g., Bill Monroe is from near Bowling Green, Kentucky so take WKU and UL-Monroe. I swear it was as good as anything else I’ve tried.) I keep biting hard on a fail-safe way to pick games but dammit there either isn’t one or I’m not leveraging my resources.
Wait a sec. “Resources.”
I’m a g.d. Executive Committee member for Cheddar Bay. I have m.f.-ing resources out my ass. I know I’ve got one Cleveland-based handicapping maven and another guy who’s Vegas-based now but I wouldn’t be surprised to find he’s got some Steubenville or Youngstown roots. And then there’s Squeekycleen… he quietly goes his own way and does his own thing but I’ve been booking plays here long enough to know a sharp player when I see one.
So I asked these players to help a brother out. It went like this:
I view you as top handicappers in our group and just excellent handicappers without any qualification. This is out of left field but would any of you be willing to give Cheddar a couple paragraphs on ‘handicapping’ things you look at? Not football-related things, but stuff like line movements, public action, sharp action, consensus, what they mean (if anything) to you, where to find that data. I know I’d be interested, I’m sure the group would be too. Like I said, don’t want it to be a heavy lift. Let me know if you’d be up sharing.
They were up for sharing. I’ve excerpted their comments below.
Petefranklin (PF): As far as resources, Covers I use to track line movements and team stats and that’s about it. Most of their articles are too generic, the forums are terrible, and their touts suck. SBR and RX forums I use to see who the pro touts are on (good ones and bad ones). Sportsmemo.com used to be my favorite show on AM out here but is only on the internet now; they have solid all around info. I knew the Peedee was bad but there’s still no verification of Weedens sprained thumb at 12:30 AM EST. I hadn’t been there (PD) for a while and it’s reasons like this that I have stayed away. ESPN reported on its ticker three hours ago that he was out.
ClevTA (TA): I love using Covers.com. It’s a great resource for trends and an easy way to hit up box scores from the current and prior seasons. I also rely on their consensus betting percentage trends as a guide for public wagering. As a backup check on the public percentages, I also use an iphone app called iOdds to make sure the numbers jibe. My third check on the public action is simply using Yahoo! and their NFL and College Pick’em contests. You can see what yahoo.com users are entering in terms of ‘just win and ATS confidence. (It’s also a good resource for anyone out there who play in survivor pools.) For stats, the best site for both NFL and NCAA is teamrankings.com. There’s a multitude of statistics for NFL and CFB and it’s easy to navigate. I pay particular attention to yards per play and first downs per play. But any stat that you are looking for, teamrankings has them.
PF: My biggest criterion for a good bet is getting the best of the closing line. I look for at least a point in college sides and more in totals, less so in the NFL. I also work hard to get those numbers that are good, I made three laps around town yesterday in my truck and pulled a calf muscle sprinting into a casino only to have the # gone.