kanick

Home » Posts tagged 'Derek Carr'

Tag Archives: Derek Carr

Cheddar Bay Leaderboard

.

The Banner Plan.

140821_05_keelhauling

The floggings will continue until morale improves.

.

I wrote a post Thursday/Friday that was triggered by the Trent Richardson trade.  It was emotional, hot, angry, pleading, salty.  But yet it seems its point was not made effectively.  I’ve read several responses to it where the reaction centers on the trading Trent Richardson (and what value the Browns got for him).  That not just misses the primary point it ignores a whole section with a boldface heading that says, “Richardson trade *is* good value.  But that’s not the problem here.”  So let me try again and do better this time.

Joe Banner’s plan is a figurative keelhauling of Browns fans.  You have been harnessed and thrown over the bow of the smokey oil slick of a 18th century whaling ship that is 2013 Berea.  You will be pulled up from the stern after a long salt-water immersion-waterboarding and scoured by the thousands of barnicles on the vessel’s hull under water level.  You will emerge in 2018 proven worthy and absolved of past misdeeds.  If you aren’t dismembered or drowned by the process.

Still too allegorical?  Ok.

Joe Banner is writing off the next three/four years on a 50-50 bet that the team will be better then; on the much smaller chance that the Browns-with-Joe-Banner’s-guys will show up in the playoffs in 2018.

Screen Shot 2013-09-22 at 9.21.16 AM

OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG.

You think Trent Richardson is the start?  You think Teddy “My-God-Teddy-Bridgewater” Bridgewater is the end game?

Smarten up and grow up, you foolish child Browns fan.

Trent Richardson heralds the midpoint of the first step in the process:  be just good enough to be competitive but just bad enough to lose.  Bad enough to lose every game, that is.  The Trent Richardson trade is the part where the strategy is non-verbally, formally announced to Browns fans.  “Hey Browns fans, this is Vegas.  Yeah, you’re not gonna be favored in a game until December and even that Jets game is looking iffy.  Just thought you’d want to know.”

Fans are waking up to the reality of a tanked season and that is why they are pissed.

Fans are not pissed because (the possibly/probably overrated) Trent Richardson was traded for a first round pick in 2014.  They’re pissed this transaction crystallized several vague thoughts for them:

  1. We’re really not trying?  Damn Kanick was right:  we’re REALLY not trying.  TRich may not be all he’s hyped, but he is our best offensive weapon or so we’ve been programmed for the last two years and if he’s not our weapon then who the fuck is?

    20090915-232002-pic-660470346_t607

    If you think Joe Banner holds on to Reggie Wayne after the Peyton Manning trade, you’re simply not paying attention.

  2. The Colts organization embodies all the Browns are not.  You say they got lucky with Andrew Luck.  No doubt.  But they’re supposed to be a crap team this year, just ask anyone at Grantland.  This is the team that brought “regress to mean” into the football fan’s lexicon.  In the face of the staggering analytical analyses of joyless stat nerds masquerading as football people, the Colts say:  “Eff that, we ain’t regressing, we would we?”  Colts have $3M in cap space which is also approximately their 2012 rollover amount.  The Colts just acquired the third pick in last year’s draft to go with their #1 pick.  The Colts are doing all they can to win.  And as to the trade itself, who’s to say TRich doesn’t turn into Steven Jackson playing for a playoff team… Marshawn Lynch seemed to improve after he left Buffalo.
    • Sidebar to all who believe Banner’s cap horseshit and think not competing and spending this year is sound financial planning and to do otherwise will condemn the Browns into a morass of cap hell:  Colts 2014 cap is 30th in the league, $82M
  3. And finally, they’re pissed because it’s dawning on them that this is just the start of the gutting.

_____
Just the start of the gutting.

It was Kolonich who got me thinking about the idea that this is just starting.

Richardson was probably only the beginning of this new reboot.  I can’t imagine Gordon, Little, Schwartz, Weeden (obvious), Lauvao, Pinkston, etc. survive into 2014 and beyond.  Not to mention Mack, Rubin, Ward and possibly even Haden.

For those who didn’t figure this out way back in January, we’re in the beginning stages of a total reset.  Just like Savage wiped out Davis and Mangini wiped out Savage and Heckert wiped out Mangini, and so on and so on. (more…)

Arcane CFB preview.

Screen Shot 2013-08-23 at 6.07.16 AM

You pretty much don’t want to bet against these two.

As the prime of the wagering season approaches we all are embarked on finding an edge or if not, we should be.  It is a search for value in trends.  What datum is unseen and ripe for exploit?  Or in my case… what nuggets of fool’s gold will Google search drop in front of me.

______
Coaches who do well against the spread.  (Point spread, not spread offense.)

Coaches and coaching styles have so much to with outcome that I can’t stop mining this hole for clues on how to make it pay.  Coaches aren’t supposed to care about spreads and there really aren’t many coaches who will tack on that last TD to cover your -24 wager on them because sportsmanship and peer review and generally don’t want to be a douche.

But yet there are some coaches who consistently beat their spreads.

We looked at ATS records as part of our coaching move evals last week.  I got curious and wanted to see whether ATS records year-over-year are any kind of indicators for future performance.  (Answer is kinda no.)

But then I wanted to see if anyone had beat the odds with three consecutive ATS above .500 records.  The answer is there are two or two and and a half depending on whether Hugh Freeze counts.

Bill Snyder/K-State.  The Wizard.  You know he signed a new five year contract with K-State earlier this year?  $15,000,000 in Manhattan, KS gets you quite a crib I’d imagine.  (Actually, not really.)  But who can say he isn’t worth it.  In addition giving his name and his family’s name to the stadium (where the Wildcats have been .807 since 1990) he’s a coach who gets the most out of the talent on his teams.  To the extent that it is measurable, Snyder is tops.  Certainly he is tops among coaches born in the third age of middle earth before the dominion of Men.  FootballStudyHall did a spiffy study matrixing the recruiting grades of incoming classes (apparent talent) against an objective measure of team quality (FO’s F/+ rating.).  Snyder come out tops and his record against the spread reflects this:  23-9-1/.712 pct ATS last three years.

Screen Shot 2013-08-23 at 3.51.18 PM

Spencer Hall hilarity aside… Mike Gundy does really good work in Stillwater.

Mike Gundy/Ok-State.  The other superlative coach is still better known as a minor internet meme.  Mike Gundy is 23-10 ATS last three years.  But back in 2007 a reporter was critical of one of his players and Gundy went after the reporter in person and with vigor as as eloquently captured by Spencer Hall:

In car crashes and other moments of extreme significance to survival, time becomes very plastic, slowing down to a geological crawl, like when your wife is attempting to pick out the proper desk lamp at IKEA or during any baseball game. We can only assume that the hummingbird of time slowed to a millipede’s creep during the rant, since we think the focus of Gundy’s overcaffeineated stare is [the reporter] herself, sitting in the room and taking her thrashing in person.

That was a long time ago and if anything probably helped bring his team together.  In other words, not really a big deal.  But as long as Gundy is perceived more as “hair-gel aficionado” than really good coach, then _I_ perceive his underrated stature as a value play worth picking up on.

But while those two are at the top there are other coaches where it’s usually profitable to ride along side.  In looking at ATS record for the last three years, here are bullets that I’m keeping in the mag.

  • Hugh Freeze/Ole Miss is 24-10 ATS in the last three years but it’s split between schools I just can’t put him with Snyder and Gundy.  At least not in this piece; in my mind he’s already there.
  • Stanford has been way over .500 ATS last three years (22-9-2 /.667), but Jim Harbaugh was still coach in 2010.  David Shaw/Stanford looks great (15-6-1) but it’s only two years.  We’ve seen many coaches unable to beat Vegas three years in a row.
  • Same for James Franklin/Vandy.  He took a 2-10 team over in 2010 and has gone 15-7 ATS since, but still.. no three consecutive years on the record.  Doesn’t mean he hasn’t earned your notice.
  • Art Briles/Baylor is over .500.  Not as dominating as I’d have expected but always on our list of coaches we like.

    url

    The Franklin vs. Freeze opener in a week is must-see.

If you want to pick through the ATS data to see how your coach or team has fared:  here is 2012; here is 2011; here is 2010.

.

Staying on the theme of looking for edges off the trail, let’s take a stroll around some other, less well-covered, conferences and see what we see.  Yes, imo, Pac-12 is a less-well-covered conference.

_____
Sun Belt Players I like

Kolton Browning/ULM.  A four year starter at QB who won at Arkansas last year, took Auburn into OT, stayed within a TD of Baylor is just someone I like.  A likely replacement for my Ryan Aplin affections. (more…)