Home » Cheddar Bay Archive » Cheddar Bay 2013 » #CheddarBay Week 7: Jags +27.5 at Broncos.

#CheddarBay Week 7: Jags +27.5 at Broncos.



Good work Cheddars:  after last week’s 54% performance and 60% hits on essays, we as a group are demonstrably imbued with, at the minimum, the casino prowess of Fredo after his time with Moe Green.  Still room for improvement though.  Just stay away from cocktail waitresses two-at-a-time and Johnny Ola.

Screen Shot 2013-10-09 at 2.36.54 AM

Only six figures?

That 54% win rate was enhanced by one of the worst beats in recent memory, enough said on that.  So fate smiled on the Cheddars (You went 35-16 for OSU.), why not?  It was well-earned after that rocky start.

We had a suggestion from Matt Borcas for the historical all-play this week.  The Broncos-Jags game is the largest opening point spread in NFL history.  The prior biggest was Bucs at Steelers in 1976.  That was Tampa’s inaugural year, 0-14, was the 13th game, and -no- the Bucs did not cover; final score 42-0 Steelers.

Congrats to Architect Art Vandelay on his Lobsterfest.  Nice to see the ballsy “-39.5” pick rewarded although, it was Oregon.  And obviously he benefitted from one of the baddest beats in recent memory but, well, that’s the casino business.

Wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t mention that one among us has been perfect with his weekly essay and not coincidentally he is enjoying great success in the standings.  One would do well to read this not-named player’s takes.


@ClevTA's Skanky Fish Picks.

A minor setback last week, going 2-3 (although MTSU was a push if you bet it).  The Wake Forest pick was eerie… there sure did not look to be any reason to like Wake in that game but someone knew something.

Year-to-date Skanky is 15-6-1 ATS so take heed when ClevTA throws out this week’s Skankies.  Here they are:


1. Memphis +9.5 v Houston (Line opened Hou -11.5, now 9.5. 76% of public on HOU) Pick: Memphis
2. UTSA -1.5 v Rice (Line opened Rice -3.5, now UTSA -1.5. 66% of public on Rice) Pick: UTSA
3. PSU +3 v Michigan (Line opened Mich -3, now either 3/2.5 depending on site. 74% on Mich) Pick: PSU
4. KSU +18 v Baylor (Line opened Baylor -20, now 18/17. 71% of public on Baylor) Pick: KSU

Nothing in NFL this week.



More Mom.

Mom was [understandably] [rightfully] horrified at my stealth recording of her which I published in this space a couple weeks ago.  She specifically wishes all to know that she does have a chin.  In support of this, here is a photo circa pre-Kanick.  Of course she’s been re-hired.

Just one more personal/mom anecdote.  Received a letter from her today and it turns out I got Woody Hayes’ autograph on a July 4th in C-bus way back when:

… Woody was at the 4th of July parade watching from Uncle Bob’s yard — corner of Northwest Blvd. and Brandon Rd.  Woody lived a couple streets up off Brandon.  The year was probably 1966.  Grandfather had you go over and ask for the autograph.  So, it really belongs to you.

And here it is.


Woody was just watching a parade…


All righty, that’ll do with Kanick’s childhood for now; good picking all.


  1. mattborcas says:

    Essay: Vikes +2.5 over Giants

    Minnesota’s receiving corps is full of untapped potential, especially Patterson. I’m not saying Josh Freeman is great, or even good, but he’s a solid upgrade over Ponder/Cassell. Meanwhile, AP will do AP things and the Vikes’ d-line will torment Eli, who’s been something of an interception maestro this season. The Giants are extremely one dimensional — they can’t run the ball whatsoever — and that will prove to be the difference here. Injuries have decimated them into a glorified practice squad; I don’t even think this one’s close.

  2. cleinmpls says:

    I will take the Colts tonight

  3. bupalos says:

    Wow Sean Payton with the HORRIBLE endgame. His players won it for him twice and he went ahead and made them win it a 3rd time. 3rd time’s a charm.

    Haven’t watched Payton closely… But he goes to the top of my quant dummies list.

  4. bupalos says:

    I’ll take the Jags for the all-play and we’ll call it an essay too. The main consideration here is that both teams have every incentive to keep this game as short as possible, so 27.5 is just silly. Look at the Broncs schedule and find the loses. It’s really hard. But next week is as good a shot as any, so you have to think Fox is going to be coaching this week, in an unloseable game, with more emphasis on running the clock than anything else. He ran it up on the panthers from understandable spite, but there is no such motivation here. No doubt Jacksonville would like to see this one end as soon as possible too. So with say 20% fewer plays than you might see in any other Bronco’s game, the spread is, as I say silly. The only wildcard here being Manning looking for free TD passes, but we’ll run with it.

    I’ll close out the week with the saints too.

  5. acto says:

    jk, Sorry to bother you, but I did not receive the point for the Neb win. The table has me 1 point low.
    Thank you

    • jimkanicki says:

      yepper a bit a time delay on the updates this weekend.. should be up to date now.

      • acto says:

        Sorry jk, Next time I shall be more patient, love you and appreciate your taking command of our fun game picking stuff!

        • The Cheddar Goddz have surely noticed this egregious scoreboard gazing. #fadingActo might be the plan this weekend.

          • acto says:

            Frownie,why do you suggest such an attack?
            I live a sullen, vacuous, lonely, bed ridden existence that one may barely call a Life, I try to hide my misplaced yearnings for CLTIL and P_4 and I am grateful that Bryan does not kick my ass as I muddle through my picks. Now you are trying to pit everyone against me?? Why? Because you still cannot get over the fact that I lost my rental car? I know you were very close to punching my lights out, so this year we shall be riding in LeBron’s limo.

  6. Bevilacqua says:


    Earlier picks:

    Northern Illinois (-22.5) over Akron (L), Oregon (-14.5) over Washington (W), Northwestern (+10) over Wisconsin (L), Clemson (-25.5) over Boston College (L)

    All Play: Broncos (-27.5) over Jaguars
    Essay: Saints (+1.5) over Patriots

    The Patriots have been winning some games, but I don’t see how Tom Brady can continue to work his magic against a quality opponent in the Saints. The only advantage the Patriots have is they’re playing at home, but I don’t see that holding up in the end. The Saints will win by at least a FG. ESPN even posted a report this morning saying that many within the organization are growing frustrated with Gronk’s unwillingness to play. This reeks of the typical high school gossip that somehow passes as sports news these days, but it’s enough to give me a reason to bet on the Saints. I hate Belichick.

  7. danwhalen555 says:

    Vikings. Peterson will be a man possessed.

    Broncos. Jags need to score 21 to cover. Won’t happen.

    Eagles. Chip scores.

    $$$ saints. $$$
    Essay to come.

    • dwhalen says:

      No idea how the Patriots haven’t been able to put up points this year. averaging next to nothing compared to past performances. I don’t really care that their receivers are a bunch of young nobodies, because when you’re playing with Tom Brady, you don’t have those problems.

      I feel like the patriots as we knew them are gone. The decade of domination in the east and the superbowl wins are in the rearview. The road is being paved (albeit slowly) for Josh McDaniels to take over once Hoodie decides to hang it up. Brady is still Brady, but his best years are behind him.

      The Saints are getting points here, strictly because they’ve got to go on the road? Their defense has been lightyears ahead of where they were a year ago, and getting their head coach back has allowed them to click on all cylinders when they’ve got the football.

      Gimme the Saints to put up a whole bunch of points. They’ll give up their fair share today too. But New England’s youthful bunch of receivers won’t be able to keep up with Brees and the gang.

  8. cleinmpls says:

    Seattle -13.5 essay

    Bounce back game for the Seahawks at Qwest against a shitty opponent? This has blowout written all over it. Chris Johnson won’t be able to run anywhere, and with the Titans qb situation, forget about it. Seahawks will be ready to roll and they won’t take their foot off the gas. A beat up Seattle squad went toe to toe on the road with a good colts team. These guys will have a chip on their shoulder coming in, and Russell Wilson will throw for 250 and 3 tds.

  9. oxr says:

    The wheels are starting to fall off the bus a little bit over here as I struggle to reman above .500. Yesterday: UTSA (L)

    All-Play: Jags +27.5 over Broncos – reverse jinx from Denver fan. Assuming the Brock Osweiler experience sets in at some point and the Jags recover some ground.

    Kansas City -9 over Oakland.
    Cowboys -6.5 over Redskins.
    Saints +1.5 over Pats.

    Essay: Eagles -1.5 over Bucs – I guess I’m deciding to believe in Nick Foles, or at least more than I believe in Mike Glennon. Tampa Bay has lost narrowly to a couple of bad teams, been stomped by the Patriots, and apparently caught the Saints on an off-day, so based on record this could be another close one – but two points counts as close, right? The bet is that Glennon will continue to have growing pains (albeit against a subpar defense) now that one of his two viable receivers is inactive. Foles has shown some level of ability in the past and shouldn’t be called upon to work miracles in this one; the question is whether Chip Kelly can wear down the generally unheralded Tampa Bay defense given (we devoutly hope) a couple of turnovers. Oh yeah, and everyone in the Tampa facility has staph and they apparently despise their lunatic coach, so there’s that.

  10. cleinmpls says:

    Eagles -1.5
    Rams +7.5
    Jags +27.5 for the all play

  11. Zarathustra says:

    Steelers +2.5 over @Jets (essay)
    Geno went on the road and won in what is a traditionally very tough place to do so. I am a big-time geno detractor but I can’t take that away from him. Of course that wasn’t the same Falcons team that has been so good at home, but he won. Now everybody is on the geno smith bandwagon which means you should expect no less than three turnovers today. I watched many wvu games the last few years and have seen him become unglued facing confusing defenses–see back to back years against Syracuse. The steelers will confuse him.

    Why the 0-4 Steelers? They haven’t forced a turnover all year. That is a trend that even the worst d in the league could not sustain. They are due and are playing geno smith (see above.). Speaking of being due, the steelers are due for a win. That is hardly a compelling reason in and of itself to wager on a team in the nfl, but in their favor is the fact that they have fought from behind in every game and came up short. Again a trend that is probably not sustainable for even a team that lacks the institutional memory of winning that the steelers have.

    Also, the Steelers have not lost off a bye since 2007. Maybe this is another trend to fade, but I won’t. This bye week Tomlin benched players (mike Adams and zingy hood) and took away the toys in the rec room. They are hungry for a win. I’ll gladly take points.

  12. clevta says:

    Kanick- plz give me Buffalo +7.5 and remove Carolina altogether. Line is 4.5 now. Can’t not take it. Thanks

  13. bupalos says:


    I’m taking the bait with the eagles. And not that I need to prove anything here, but I am once again showing my moral resolve by riding with the beloved cmfb.

    The ginger cringer vs. that front? Ok maybe I am proving something here.

  14. Deputyglitters says:

    Broncos -27.5
    Cardinals +12
    Colts -2
    Saints +1.5
    Bengals -7.5
    Washington St -1.5. (This pick is in 20 min late). Didn’t have cell service-in Austin at the ACL festival.

    No essay

    • acto says:

      Deputy, I am surprised you did not mention your ACL venture, my former SSO and current best friend always gets free passes to everything Austin from her salt miners. Gave away 5 full ride passes this year, some to annoying relatives. I would prefer they go to an almost complete stranger. If you want free stuff, let me know next year. Cheddar strangers are the best strangers! If you see a sasquatch today, with a pink shirt and an old Browns hat, say hello, I will buy you a beer. Also, put your phone into wifi mode, we (TWC) have WAP’s with huge amounts of bandwidth everywhere at Zilker this weekend.

      • Deputyglitters says:

        Shit!!!!!!! Saw this wayyyyyy too late. I’m not on top of things this weekend. At the arcade bar?

        • acto says:

          When they started cancelling stuff, my buddy, among others started booking local venues. She is about to tear down a couple of famous bars, so she left them open for bands that just wanted to play their sets and fans who wanted to listen and buy surplus alcohol. (Sad for me, I was going to get most of that booze.) Were you the guy at Franz Ferdinand around 11:00pm last night? (That club was the great Antone’s, now it is called “Start a Fire”, or something like that. I was dancing like a drunken monkey, right in front of the stage with my perfunctory pink shirt and Browns’ hat. Were you jumping around like Curious George on a pogo stick? Then you hit my hip and flipped over the stairs. (I assumed it was you because of the BAD ASS Leroy Kelly shirt.) Too loud to speak.
          I hope you and you friends enjoyed the Shiner Bocks!

          • Deputyglitters says:

            Can’t take credit for that badassery. My wife and I spent the day in line outside Moody’s theatre and ended up in the middle, two rows from the stage at Atoms for Peace. Very worth the wait. Will definitely make sure to put out the word the next time we are in Austin. It was our first time and we loved it. Moving to Denver in 10 days and have never been there either. Hope it is just as good.

            • acto says:

              Sorry DG, Denver it is not as terrific as Austin, when I was a puppy I followed a former paramour to Denver, it was fantastic in the summer, (summer lasts about a week), then it became way too cold, too cold blasting past the “why do humans live here” level. It was 34 years ago and I am still waiting for my reproductive appendages to descend.

            • acto says:

              Not that it is anything to look at, but…. if you come to Austin from Denver, my picture is on the wall at the steakhouse in Texline. I was coming home from racing in the mountains, I was young, very skinny and finishing that steak was not a problem. I could have eaten the whole steer.

            • acto says:

              Dep, I thought it was you, so I bought 11 Shiner Bocks’s for some other group hanging with a guy in a Leroy Kelly shirt.
              Money well spent to honor Leroy!

  15. Woo hoo. Took PSU via tweet to Kanick earlier. Now for the rest of my picks…


    PSU +3 over Michigan

    Raiders +9 over Kansas City (I’m out of my mind. Call it a hunch.)

    Vikings -2.5 over Panthers (Can’t fathom what Perterson is going through. Couldn’t imagine betting against him.)

    Bengals -7.5 over Buffalo

    All Play:

    Denver -27.5 over Jacksonville (After riding the Manning train for weeks, it is tough to pick against him. I won’t do it this week, but I certainly won’t make it my essay either.)


    Browns +3 over Detroit

    Am I just crazy? Does this really look like the best game to me? I’ll take the three points at home. Joe Haden vs an 80% Calvin Johnson? I like Haden. I think the Browns have enough to slow the Lions down That only leaves a matter of the Browns scoring. I don’t like the match-up between Lauvao and Fairly or Suh, but I think the Browns will gameplan for that.

    I also think the return of at least one LB (Sheard or Groves) will help tremendously as Mingo gets some rest and allows a more veteran presence against Reggie Bush.

    At the very least, I think the defense is enough to keep this one close. And there is no way I have confidence in some of these HUGE spreads this week.

  16. pateslvrblk says:

    All play Broncos -27.5
    Saints 1.5 over New England
    *** Colts -2 over Chargers
    No essay week

  17. cheddarclay says:

    Ole Miss (+7) / aTm

    • cheddarclay says:

      Texans (-7.5) / Rams
      Jags (+27.5) / Broncos
      Titans (+13.5) / Seahawks
      Eagles (-1.5) / Bucs

      Skins (+6.5) / Cowboys

      Cowboys gotta bounce right? Like the Skins coming off a bye, I think it’s exactly what they needed. Thinking there has to be some inflation in the line due to last week. 6.5 seems like a lot for a divisional game, would Dallas really be fave if game in Wash? Gimme the points and what should be RG3 best game of the year.

  18. Harbaugh Handshakes says:

    I’ll take Texas a&m -7 for a point. Rest to come tomorrow am.

    • Harbaugh Handshakes says:

      Previous Picks:
      Chicago (L)
      Texas A&M -7
      Philly -1.5 @ Tampa Bay***Essay
      Broncos -27.5 vs Jacksonville
      Dallas -6.5 vs Wash
      New Orleans +1.5 @ New England

      Tampa Bay seems to have completely given up on Schiano and are not going to put forward any effort to get him a win. Tampa is running out a rookie 3rd rd pick out at QB, so I don’t expect Tampa to score when Philly can stack the line and dare the rookie to try to beat them. Meanwhile Philly still has nice weapons in Jackson and Mccoy even with Vick out this week Foles looked good in relief. McCoy should have a big game and as long as Foles doesn’t make any big mistakes Philly should cruise to victory.

  19. late picks but feeling good

    broncos +27.5 (hate lines like this)
    georgia tech +6
    bowling green +11
    texas a&m -7
    eagles -2
    boise state -7

    the loss of chuckie keeton for the season isn’t just sad for utah state, it’s sad for college football. keeton is one of the most entertaining players in college football, and this almost assuredly means he’ll be returning for his senior season. there was a good chance had he played all year healthy, he would have declared for the draft. and maybe that ends up being a net gain for aggies; with a senior keeton and a bunch of other quarterbacks leaving the mwc next year, usu could have a better shot at winning the conference next year. but seven points is way too low a line against a team without its best player. i’d have boise favored even if keeton was playing, and this team is likely badly deflated at this point. this isn’t a great boise state team, but it should have no trouble winning this one by 10 or more.

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