Home » Cheddar Bay Archive » Cheddar Bay 2013 » Cheddar Bay Week 3: Browns +7 at Ravens.

Cheddar Bay Week 3: Browns +7 at Ravens.

This week’s lines are posted here.

Late lines:  OSU -15.5 at Cal; Ole Miss +3 at Texas.

Reminder:  use the “Current” column for your point spreads, not the “Open” column.

NFL Star Terrell Suggs Chooses Ink, Not Mink

Ball So Hard U will be represented Sunday.

All-play is Browns -7 at Ravens.

We had three solid candidates for the All-Play this week.  My pref, I admit, was the Niners/Seahawks.  A great case can be made for Bama/TAMU.  But the Chairman Emeritus makes a compelling case for the Browns/Ravens:

Who will have the balls to take those points this week is  far and away the most interesting test of Cheddar Bayers this week.  Bama/A&M would be a second.  Niners/Seahawks is a great game, but I don’t think it’s nearly as compelling an All Play.  You’ll get a lot of “Mangini Mangini Mangini (spoiler alert!)” and the rest surely (at least mostly) just bland rehashing of preseason punditry on one side of the Niners/Seahawks debate or the other.

My ‘thing’ is not wanting to have to bet against the team I’m rooting for.  But that’s my thing and I have lots of things that I won’t inflict upon you up to and including an all-play of SunBelt powers WKU vs. ArkySt. at some point.  (Wait.  Actually I can’t rule that out.)

(And besides:  on second look at the schedule, Wisconsin at Arizona State might could be the best game of the weekend.)

Sketchy updates this weekend.

Your loyal commissioner is usually on top of the scoring throughout the weekend, taking time out Sunday to catch the Browns (at The Riverside Lounge in Amesbury, Mass if you’re in the neighborhood).

But this weekend the scoring may lag as we’re picking off a low level bucket list item and catching an Army game at Michie Stadium, West Point, NY.  The fact of Stanford playing there is incidental   So look for pateslvrblk and me under the big Kanick logo as shown below.

Screen Shot 2013-09-11 at 11.27.34 AM

Not going to West Point expecting to witness the greatest upset in college football in the last 100 years.
Going because, just look.

Dammit just noticed who’s in front of our seats and I’ve already called the Browns Stadium ushers to make the cadets sit down.


Drop your picks in the comments below and happy handicapping!


  1. cleinmpls says:

    Oregon -28.5

  2. cheddarclay says:

    Iowa St (+2.5) / Iowa
    Washington (-10) / Illinois
    Miss St (+6.5) / Auburn
    Ohio (+8) / Marshall
    Ravens (+7) / Browns

    Ohio St (-15.5) / Cal

    This line is way too low. Possible factors probably include the status of Braxton, OSU travelling across country, the B1G recent history of playing on the road vs PAC 10 teams, the closeness of last years game in Columbus, etc… I don’t believe any of this matters. If Kenny G has to play, we all know what he can do. Last years game was close because new coach, new system etc. The PAC 10 is down this year and Cal is a bottom feeder. Urbs will have the boys ready. BLOW OUT. Free cheddar points for me.

  3. Its Only Money says:

    Stanford -29 @ Army
    @ WVU -40.5 GAST
    Louisville -14.5 @ Kentucky
    @ USC -14 Vandy
    All Play Cleveland +7 @ Baltimore

    @ Oakland -6 Jacksonville

    Since my first two essay picks went bad I thought for week 3 I would go with a tried and true theory of betting against bad teams on the road. In a battle of two bad teams, I just don’t see the Chad Henne led Jags as any better than the Blaine Gabbert led team. The Raiders looked better than we all expected in their opener against the Colts. Terrelle Pryor should be coming into the game with loadsd of confidence even though they weren’t able to hold on for the win. The Raider defense played well and I think that will continue against the hapless Jags.

  4. ArtVandelay says:

    @ASU -4.5 vs Wisky – Tough spot for the Badgers.

    Panthers -3 vs Bills – I love the Panthers front 7 especially against a rookie.

    Rams +6.5 @ Falcons – Rams front 7 could give Ryan fits plus a banged up Roddy White.

    Seahawks -2.5 vs 49ers – Cant wait to watch.

    AP: @Ravens -7 vs Browns

    Essay: Bears -6.5 vs Vikings

    Kosar endorsed Bears coach Marc Trestman and that was enough for me to be sold. Now you add in the fact that Cutler is happy plus was kept upright for the most part against the Bengals you may really have something going in Chicago. The Bears D is still tough plus seemingly creates a big turnover or two again. Did I mention they are playing Christian Ponder. The Vikings looked really bad against the Lions last week and I dont see their offense improving at all this week.

  5. thatsfine says:

    A few picks to start the weekend, just under the wire.
    Ravens -7 / Browns – From the 30 million in unused cap space to the 30 or so undrafted free agents they picked up after final cuts, this team is not built to compete. Keeping it within a touchdown on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs would be the definition of competing.
    Louisville -14.5 / Kentucky – I hate laying this much on the road, but they aren’t even leaving the state. It’s not a long road. I like Terry Bridgewater’s prospects of having a Heisman-type game here.
    Alabama -8 / TAMU’s defense gets exposed and manhandled today.

  6. KTOinCLE says:

    If there is such a thing as “couple luck” then Nick has taken it all and run away from me giggling. I have one correct pick so far in Cheddar. How is that even possible when picking against a spread? Wouldn’t that be theoretically difficult to do? This reminds me of playing cribbage with Nick where about the first turn in if I’m not winning or even close, I give up and stop playing and simple indulge in cheese, wine, and the view of Cleveland. Since that’s not really an option in Cheddar, here are my picks:

    All Play: Browns +7 Even though they screwed me last week for my essay pick, I’m back for more. Not a very healthy relationship, folks.
    Stanford -29
    Eagles -9
    BGSU +3
    Rice -6.5

    *Essay* Bears -6.5
    I picked Da Bears because I’m in Chicago this weekend and we’re going to give Soldier Field some good juju tonight when we’re cheering on the Fighting Illini. I think they looked stellar against the Bungals last week. There are just so many unreasonable reasons I dislike Dalton and it was lovely to see the Bears ruin his day. I think they’ll extend the courtesy to the Vikings again this week. I think the Bears defense is going to turn Ponder into a delightful little apple turnover machine. My only worry is Adrian Peterson and if I lose this essay pick, I’m sure it will be due to his performance. Here’s to hoping the Vikings take a page out of Norv Turner’s book and stop running the ball after first quarter.

  7. Petefranklin says:

    Early cheddar play #1 UCLA +4 Nebraska couldn’t stop Wyoming, and the MW looks like it sucks badly this year. Line is too far gone(-2.5) to bet now though. Never underestimate the power a team feels after a tradjedy.

    • Petefranklin says:

      #2 BGSU +3 over Indiana, The Hoosiers cant stop anybody, Im thinking the Falcons slow down Indy enough for the cover
      #3 MTSU -7 over Memphis, Memphis sucks and MTSU is stepping down in class for this one after a turnover fest last week vs UNC.
      #4 RICE -6.5 vs Kansas (ESSAY)

    • Petefranklin says:

      Most people got a glimpse of Rice against A&M. I thought they held their own very well before the loss of top RB Turner Peterson. He is back for this game after being originally misdiagnosed. Rice will be able to score enough to cover as Kansas has traditionally had problems stopping mobile duel threat QB’s. I think A&M is underrated and will cover vs. Alabama , which bodes well for Rice here. Rice gets their first win of the year going away tonight.

    • Petefranklin says:

      #5 RAMS +7
      #6 BROWNS +7

  8. Munasrevenge says:

    Kind of a brutal slate this week, not much jumps out at me, but I suppose that’s the hidden joy of Cheddar Bay right?

    -BGSU (+3) @ Indiana (MACtion on the road in a game I think they can win outright, and possibly win big outright.)
    -Central Mich (+7.5) @ UNLV (see above)
    -Florida State (-33) vs Nevada (Exactly the kind of early season game they dominate before losing to WF or BC sometime around week 6 or 7)
    -Iowa State (+2.5) vs Iowa (Not sure why Iowa is favored here; also not sure why anyone outside of Iowa would be interested in this game, except maybe the possibility the football reaches a singularity of suck and collapses in on itself.)

    –Browns (+7) vs Ravens (Both teams will be playing angry off an embarrassing loss;

    —These are two big “winners” from conference realignment, depending on how you define “winning” I suppose. One upgraded from the Sun Belt to CUSA, and the other “upgraded” from CUSA to Big East CUSA 2.0 Amercian. I find the latter conference realignment to be one of the most fascinating stories in athletics, and certainly college athletics, in my lifetime. A conference essentially pieced together for football money turned out to be mediocre at football. Seeing the riches being handed out to bigger conferences around them, they held out for more and more money. Feeling antsy, marquee programs (Cuse, Pitt, Lousiville) and mid tier programs (Rutgers, WVU) took more attractive offers and bolted. Still hoping for a big payday, the conference reached for top shelf midmajor football programs (Boise! TCU! SDSU!) to plug the holes. But as they started losing more teams and began to reach lower (Houston! UCF! Tulane!) their big midmajors also backed out, leaving the conference as essentially the new CUSA. No one is particularly happy to be there, so this should end well. My favorite part is that ESPNU, I mean UConn, got stuck behind and essentially isn’t particularly desired by any of the major conferences, which leads to a pretty heavy “freude” to “schaden” ratio for me at least. I am rambling now, but needless to say I will by and devour every book about this travesty of a realignment as they emerge over the next several years.

    Which is to say that Memphis is a terrible football school added only to bolster their basketball profile; MTSU is a mediocre football playing at home which should take care of business in this matchup.

    MTSU (-7) vs Memphis

  9. tmoore94 says:

    Here we go:

    LSU -37.5 vs. Kent State. Hate to do it, but the Flashes are really struggling on offense without Dri Archer, and it’s hard to see him having much of an impact tonight if he plays.

    Michigan -38 vs. Akron. The Zips may be one of the worst teams in college football.

    Oregon -28.5 vs. Tennessee. The Ducks are averaging 62.5 points and 664.5 yards per game, 9.5 yards per play and 22.9-yards on their 17 touchdowns. It is hard to see how playing Austin Peay and Western Kentucky prepared the Volunteers for what they are going to see today.

    Baltimore -7 vs. Cleveland. Over the past eight seasons, the Browns are 8-8 ATS against Baltimore and 5-3 ATS when they play the Ravens on the road. It was very tempting to take them here, but this just has the feel of a Baltimore late cover against a tired Browns defense.

    Indianapolis -3 vs. Miami. We all saw Miami play last week. Miami is not a good team.

    Essay pick:

    Alabama -8 vs. Texas A&M.

    The marquee game of the day by a long shot, as A&M handed Alabama its lone loss last season, a game that unleashed Johnny Manziel on the nation.

    As coach at LSU and Alabama, Nick Saban’s teams are 15-2 when they face a team that beat them in their previous game. At Alabama, Saban in 7-1 in those games (both straight up and ATS), winning by an average margin of 21 points. In road games as Alabama coach, Saban’s teams are 16-8 ATS as a road favorite.

    As fun as it is to watch Manziel play, and as nervous as he makes us today, when in doubt, it never hurts to back Saban.

  10. dwhalen says:

    Louisville -14.5 @ Kentucky. Brutal four week stretch begins for the Wildcats, who aren’t even the best school with Kentucky in their name. Bridgewater going ham.

    UCLA +4 v Nebraska. Bruins could go one of two ways after having a teammate pass away suddenly last week. I think Jim Mora jr. is a solid coach and great motivator. I also happen to think that Taylor Martinez enjoys giving the ball to the opposing team when games are tight. And he throws like a spaz.

    Boston College +13.5 @ USC. This spread seems large, even with a trip to the west coast. We learned last week that when Lane Kiffin is your coach, there is no such thing as home-field advantage. Not long til that douche gets fired.

    Browns +7 @ Ravens. Seven touchdowns Brandon. If Peyton can do it, you can d… just run the football.

    Colts -3 v Dolphins. I think the Colts can score. I think the Dolphins cannot.

    $$$$Saints -4 @ Bucs. $$$$
    I typically make my pics with the quarterbacks in mind, this game is no different. Brees has always been my boy, and he has the tendency to play well in division games, especially against the Bucs. To me, Josh Freeman is no different than Logan Thomas, or Derek Anderson. Big boys, big arms, no real skill set beyond that. I realize the Bucs bolstered up their defensive backfield, and I happen to like Greg Schiano as a coach, but Brees, Sproles and Graham get it done this week. And they get it done by 8-10 points.

  11. TheKardiacKid

    BG +3 @IU
    St. Louis Rams +7 @Atlanta
    AP: Browns +7 @Baltimore
    OSU-15.5 @Cal

    Kenny Guiton or Braxton Miller? It doesn’t matter. California almost lost to Portland State at home last week. Any line over 14 would have scared me away in the Tressel era. But not in the Urban era, mostly because he’s a dick and will try to run up the score for BCS style points. You know he’s using dropping in the polls as motivation to his future first round criminals. After playing two high school teams, OSU rolls over a JUCO team this week.

  12. Harbaugh Handshakes says:

    I’d like to place another cheddar point on Michigan -38. Be back later tonight with the rest of my picks.

  13. Bevilacqua says:

    I really wanted to take Michigan (-38) over Akron, but those 38-point spreads are such a crapshoot. Akron really is that bad, regardless of Terry Bowden. I’m just worried that Brady Hoke will ease up too much in the second half after last week’s big game against Michigan. Anyways, here are my real picks:

    Texas A&M (+8) over Alabama
    This one is all heart and no brains. I hate Nick Saban. And it’s in College Station, so it’ll be a one-score game.

    Western Kentucky (-10) over South Alabama
    Lost with Bobby Petrino last week, so I’ll try again. Last week, Western Kentucky turned it over 5 times in the span of 6 plays. I’m sure they paid for that during practice this week.

    OSU (-15.5) over Cal
    Urban Meyer will really open up the offense this week.

    Saints (-4) over Buccaneers
    Sean Payton is back, and Josh Freeman looked terrible last week. I should probably go against the grain, but whatever.

    All-Play: Browns (+7) over Ravens
    I’m still celebrating Joe Flacco’s contract. That Ravens wrecked their salary cap for a mediocre QB. Anquan Boldin was the true hero of the playoffs last year, not Flacco. He caught every single 50-50 ball thrown his way (and some were more like 20-80).

    Essay Pick:
    UCLA (+4) over Nebraska
    This game is one of those awkward situations where the higher-ranked AP team is actually the underdog, and the +4 means that Vegas thinks Nebraska is slightly better (accounting for the 3 points typically given to home teams). However, I’m looking at the quarterbacks and the trajectory that they are on. Taylor Martinez is one of those quarterbacks who make you think, “Hasn’t he graduated already?” He made a big splash as a dual-threat freshman, yet it doesn’t seem like he’s improved much now that he’s a senior. Brett Hundley, on the other hand, is another one of those dual-threat quarterbacks that made a big splash as a freshman (even stealing the job from incumbent Kevin Prince), and now that he’s a sophomore, I’m starting to hear whispers that a few good games could propel him into the Heisman race. So that’s all I need to know. Give me the dark horse for the Heisman, on the road, and four points, please.

  14. clevta says:

    I’ve decided to try something new for those out there that are interested. Ill call it the Rotten Fish segment. Lines that are the most heavily sided by the public yet the line has moved opposite the public action. We’ll keep track of how going opposite the public and with the line movement would do weekly. Ill post the covers.com % & opening v current line. any % >65% is considered heavy public and line movement opposite that typically means the big(sharp) dollars are going to the team opposite public. For the record I personally wager on many of these weekly. This week:
    1. Central FL at PSU (68% on PSU, op line PSU -6, now 4.5). Adv UCF
    2. Maryland at UCONN (74% on MD, op line MD -7.5, now 6.5) Adv Uconn
    3. W KY at S Alabama (68% on W KY, op line WKY -9.5, now 7) Adv S Ala

    1. Miami at Indy (72% on Indy, op line Indy -3, now 1.5) Adv Miami
    2. STL at ATL (68% on ATL, op line ATL -7, now 5.5) Adv STL
    3. NO at TB (77% on NO, op line NO -4, now 3) Adv TB

    • clevta says:

      4-1-1 ATS with the Rotten Fish plays above. UCONN went down fighting making it to the MD 30 until they turned it over on downs w/ 2m left for the backdoor. All 4 dogs won outright. ML wagers would’ve put lots of $$ in your pocket this week fwiw.

    • jimkanicki says:

      So, this works out to (using cheddar lines):
      UCF -win
      UConn -lose
      SALA -win
      Phins -win
      Rams -push
      Bucs -win

      That’s 4-1-1, not too shabby.

      How late do you wait for adequate data? Are you getting these picks made on Friday>?

  15. trashycamaro says:

    @Texas Tech +3 over TCU

    • jimkanicki says:

      wreckem tech was Thursday,, soo.. give us anothern.

    • trashycamaro says:

      So, after successfully predicting the past, I picked a winning loser on the road. Take ’em where you can get them. Especially after the bath I took last week.

      Browns +7 over @Ravens – Lesson learned in week 2 of Cheddar Bay last year – picking against the Browns is really a no win situation as a fan. Won’t be doing it again. And I feel like they can beat this spread. Browns have a better pass rush than the Miller-less Broncos, so if we get some cooperative Dickson drops and Haden contains Smith, I feel ok about our chances. Although Trent is really starting to worry me.

      @Bills +3 over Panthers. Home dog with a feisty big play QB/HB/WR set? I’ll take it.

      JAX +6 over @OAK Chad Henne is a much better QB than Gabbert. Cecil Shorts and Blackmon are quality WRs (at least in this game), and MJD is still better than McFadden. And I have a little faith that Jax at least looked into how to stop the read option in the off season.

      @Giants +5.5 over Den. Quality team as a home dog getting 5.5? Sure.

      Saints -4 over @Tampa (essay). Coach publicly feuding with the QB? HB with difficulty getting through the line? Injury to your Pro Bowl guard? Drew Brees? Yes, please. As good as Revis is, he can’t cover more than one WR at a time and Jimmy Graham and the running game should be able to occupy those quality safeties back there. While saying “the Saints struggle on D” is probably a bit of an understatement, the Bucs offense is struggling pretty badly and Freeman seems to be a confidence QB – and he can’t have any now after Schiano possibly rigged a team vote to remove his captaincy. Seriously, they sound like the Browns. Doesn’t someone over there even have a staph infection? (Oh yeah, it’s Carl Nicks). I see your future Bucs fans, and it will get much, much worse before it gets better.

  16. Concierge says:


    Jets (win)
    Rams +7 essay
    Dolphins +3
    Ravens -7
    Rice -6.5
    Oregon State +3.5

    Rams are really good on the road ATS. Last year they were 7-1 ATS. Really like what Sam Bradford is doing at QB for St. Louis. He is finally looking like the player the Rams thought he was when they drafted him 1st overall. The weapons on offense are much better than they have been in years past. Jared Cook and Tavon Austin are really going to help Bradford this season. Look for St Louis to keep this one close and possibly pull the outright upset.

  17. cwonder23 says:

    Colts -3 vs Dolphins
    Saints -4 @ Bucs
    Jags +6 @ Raiders
    AP: Ravens -7 vs Browns
    Wiscy + 4.5 @ ASU
    Essay pick: Louisville -14.5 @ KY
    Charlie Strong is a great coach, Teddy Bridgewater is a legit Heisman contender. UK may keep it close early but will fade. Louisville has something to prove in a weak conference, so they will have to ring up points and not stp. I think Louisville and I have some work to do but Go Cardinals!

  18. pforever says:

    browns +7 ravens
    alabama -8 a&m***
    boston college +13.5 usc
    oregon -28.5 tennessee u
    ucla +4 nebraska
    kent st. +37.5 LSU

    ***saban is nothing if not predictable, right? I mean, that’s his whole thing. It’s actually why Alabama is so so boring (well, as boring as winning can be, I guess). He will do a fine job of insulating his team from any ncaa infraction distractions, and they will do what he has been waiting a year for them to do: beat a&m. the spread is a bit big – even at 7 this would have been an easier pick – but a&m’s rickety defense will be the story of this game. (nothing about alabama is as flashy as manziel, but for sure nothing is rickety, either.) that I hate johnny manziel is a happy coincidence.

  19. CapitalGG says:

    I must say, an up arrow and the #32 next to it was nice to see last week. Wonder if I can play with some momentum…

    All-play: Ravens -7 v. Browns: If you’re not sure the road dog wins out right, give the points with the home team. Can this advice hold 3 weeks in a row?

    1. Stanford -29 @ Army: Picking this game just to express my jealously to the Executive Committee for crossing off an item that also appears on my bucket list.
    2. Arkansas -22 v. So. Miss.: No good reason Arkansas can’t simply name it’s margin in this one.
    3. Ball St -3.5 @ N. Texas: Can’t get enough of Ball St…. reliable MACtion play.
    4. Ole Miss +3 @ Texas: Let me count the ways… SEC v. BigXII, Texas is reeling, Ole Miss has more talent. If any team ever needed a road game, that would be Texas this week… oh, ouch.

    I’ve been waiting for this game for months. Not because of the Johnny Football controversy (he took money, we all know this). Not because I’m particularly interested in watching the game (I’ll be watching OSU-Cal). No, I’ve been interested for 1 simple reason… WAGERING!

    I’ve been waiting for months wondering what the line would be. 10 points? 20 points? And I’ve been trying to figure out what number it would take for me to abstain from this game. 30 points? 50 points? I’m not sure that number exists. I’ve been waiting to put down a wager on Nicky Satan Saban in a revenge game. We’ve seen what happens when Lucifer the coach gets his troops motivated for revenge and it ain’t pretty. Let’s review…

    2010 losses: @SCar 35-12, @LSU 24-21, v.Aub 28-27.
    2011 rematches: No SCar rematch, see LSU 2011 below, @Aub 42-14 (boom!).

    2011 loss: v. LSU 9-6 OT.
    rematch: v. LSU 21-0. And it wasn’t that close.

    2012 loss: v.TAMU 29-24.

    So what do you think will happen here? Well, TAMU hasn’t been able to stop anyone on the ground. But the Bama offense hasn’t been spectacular. It doesn’t matter. The Crimson Tide defense will dominate. Their offense will grind out a 3 TD victory. And Alabama -8 will put Benjamins in my pocket.

    Other plays:
    Notre Dame -21 @ Purdue
    No. Illinois -28.5 @ Idaho
    MTSU -7 v. Memphis
    Louisville -14.5 v. Kentucky
    UTSA +26.5 @ Arizona
    Oregon -28.5 v. Tennessee
    Rutgers -27.5 v. E. Michigan
    Florida St. -33 v. Nevada
    Nebraska -4 v. UCLA
    Indiana -3 v. Bowling Green
    Wisconsin +4.5 @ Arizona St

    Colts -3 v. Dolphins
    Saints -4 @ Buccaneers
    Panthers -3 @ Bills
    Chiefs +3 v. Cowboys

  20. jmacdaddio says:


    Ravens -7 over Browns (sorry, Clevelanders)
    South Carolina -14 over Vanderbilt
    Purdue +21 over Notre Dame
    Panthers -3 over Bills
    Falcons -7 over Rams

    Essay: Saints -4 over Tampa Bay

    If you listen to sports talk radio in the morning, or the evening, or the afternoon, you probably heard that the Tampa Bay locker room is a mess. Josh Freeman and Greg Schiano are at odds, and while Coach Schiano may have been able to motivate college players, I’m still not sold on his ability to manage pros. Last year was somewhat of a nice surprise, I think, but the college coach to pro transition works provided the talent is there and results happen, which hasn’t. The Saints’ core is still the Super Bowl team of…. what year was that again?.. even with 4 years more on the odometer can still put up points against lower-tier NFL teams.

  21. CleveLandThatILove says:

    Ravens -7 over Browns. The dreaded all-pray.
    Auburn -6.5 over Miss St
    Nebraska -4 over UCLA
    **Broncos -5.5 over Giants
    Steelers +7 over Bengals
    Bears -6.5 over Vikes

    *Head to head, I will always take Peyton over Eli. Whatever ancillary factors came into play for each of the Mannings last week, there are some things that remain constant. The only question mark for Peyton (his cervical spine) was pretty much negated in 2012. What should have been a tremendous physical and mental obstacle for him (and his new teammates) has been all but extinguished in our minds – does anybody even think about it now? (The answer is no, and that in itself is extraordinary.) Let’s see….Eli has had to bear the burden of playing for a team with New York in its name, and living in his older brother’s shadow. He’s got a couple of SB rings that he can twirl around his fingers, or open a drawer to show someone that might want to see. He’s made it to the top of the mountain. But Peyton’s climb has been longer and slower, with less provisions and one giant setback. But he’s back on that mountain looking upward. Obviously he’s weighed the considerable risk to his well-being and decided that getting there is something that needs to be. I don’t have whatever that is in me (not yet, anyway), but I do admire it and ooh I’ll even risk 3 whole Cheddar points, how brave am I?

  22. All Play – Browns +7
    Arizona Cardinals +2.5

    Essay: Dolphins +3
    I was skeptical about the colts heading into this season. Yes, they have an amazing quarterback, but way too many things went their way last year. Last week’s performance versus the lowly raiders may have solidified my season prediction for this team. I’ll save everyone the heartache about the dolphins and their performance. I’m seeing this line down to 1 in some places. Give me the three points.

    Previous Picks from Thursday night:

    Tulane +8.5
    Troy +8.5
    Jets +12

    • jimkanicki says:

      in spite of my ode to andrew luck last week, i like the dolphins here. fins brought pressure with a four man front; i think luck may have find it a challenge to pick it apart.

  23. Texas Tech +3 (submitted via Twitter)

    Ravens -7 over Browns

    Bama -8

    SF 49ers +2.5

    UTEP -6.5


    Boston College +13.5.

    This essay is partly an endorsement of the BC Eagles as it is a diatribe against Lane Kiffin. Several years ago, the late Al Davis fired Lane Kiffin for cause. Does anyone remember that? It’s really saying something when you fire someone for cause. That means they done something and you’re willing to go to court if necessary to withhold payment. Amongst other things, Davis called Kiffin a “liar”. I don’t know if that’s what all of his enemies call him (and I venture to guess they have more colorful names for him) the fact of the matter is that he conducts himself like a man of low character. Beyond this, he simply isn’t a very good coach. His dad? Yes. Lane? Not so much.

    I saw BC play last year in person and Chase Rettig was impressive as a collegiate QB who might actually have tools that could translate to the next level. He’s got a strong arm and while he’s not the most mobile passer, he seems to always find a way to get the ball out. The team seems to be playing faster with Steve Addazio and that’s a good thing.

  24. Peter M says:

    Denver -4.5 over NYG
    Oak over JAC
    Chi over Minn
    Philly over SD
    BAL overCLE
    Alabama over T A+M
    When was the last time Nick Saban lost a team, school?, two year in a row. The Tide will be ready. I didn’t look it up, but I think his record in big games is above average. Johnny Richy Rich Football will put up big numbers, but it wont be enough.

  25. Huzzah! Picking an early winner makes you feel, well like less of a loser. I’m sure you are all on pins and the needles waiting for my picks this week. Without further delay-

    Jets +12 over New England (Submitted via Twitter Thursday.) Rah.
    Ole Miss +3 at Texas. (Because you make me pick a college game.)
    Colts -3 over Dolphins (Because Andrew Luck will destroy Dimitri Patterson and the ‘Phins secondary.)
    Bengals -7 over Steelers (Because the Bengals are home, and if you think they are going to win the division, don’t they have to beat a weakened Stillers team at home on Monday night?)

    All Play: Ravens -7 over Browns. (Not happy about it. Would be happy to be wrong.)

    Essay: Bears -6 over Vikings (Setting up the inevitable must-win game for Minnesota next week against Cleveland.)

    How’s this for starters- “Since 2009, Chicago has held Peterson to just 73 yards rushing per game during his yearly pilgrimage to the Windy City.” [Yahoo.com]

    Nice. I also like Chicago because their offensive line seems to be improved this year. They did not surrender a sack against a very good front from Cincinnati. Jay Cutler is always going to be a bit of a wildcard, but he is 100x better than Christian Ponder, and the Bears are at home. Chicago is riding a 5 game winning streak over the Vikings in Chi-town as well.

  26. pateslvrblk says:

    Here goes:

    Boise St -24 over Air Force
    Stanford -29 over Army
    Alabama -8 over Texas A+M
    All play: Ravens-7 over Browns
    Bears-6.5 over Vikings
    *** Raiders -6 over Jaguars
    This is purely an emotional pick on my part. The Raiders are playing to a sold out crowd at home with Terrell Pryor as their new hope. Raiders and Jaguars are seen as most downtrodden NFL teams and somebody has to win. Convincing as that sounds, unfortunately I was unable to see last weeks game due to a direct TV blunder. To their defense the loss was in the last final minutes and they say Terrelle Pryor shows promise. Some Cheddars might appreciate this season Terrelle turned in his #6 jersey for his previous Ohio State #2 jersey. Go Raiders!!

  27. bupalos says:

    Holy Crap Cheddar! 3 deadlines still to go, and then camping all wkend, so I’m going stream of consciousness here.

    Arizona St -4.5… This isn’t Wisconsin’s kind of game in any sense

    Bengals -7 over Steelers….Steelers are worse than the Browns, Bengals are better than the Ravens. AFC North relativity says I must make this play, given my all-play

    Jets +12 over pats…Pats are mediocre-ish, and 12 points is 12 points.

    Chargers +9 over Eagles….Vick is an old man and he simply can’t keep that pace and take those shots for long.

    Jacksonville +6, per Clevta.

    AP….Why even make me say it? The Browns already have a touchdown on the board. And while a second viewing of the game suggest to me that Chris Owens is actually the worst DB on this team (!) (!!!!) it’s not going to be that easy for Flacco and friends (and there aren’t many friends) to put up points. I only count 5 significant Browns players left that have little or no business on an NFL team, and while unfortunately one of them is still the QB, that leaves 17 slots filled by actual NFL players– more than we’ve ever had going into a Ravens game. I’d love to have a kicker that could earn us a cheap 3, but it’s still Browns +7.

    ***Giants +5.5…Way too much hullaballoo about Denver. That was the 1st game of the season, at altitude, against a Ravens squad that is seriously downgraded from last year. I’ll be shocked if Baltimore is sniffing the Conf. Championship this year, if they are it’s only because it’s tough to find any strength anywhere in the AFC. When your opposition basically succumbs to altitude sickness for a half, yeah, you look like you’re going to run over the NFL. But throw in an actual top-5 QB (as opposed to an alleged one,) dump in some oxygen (and whatever else is floating around in the Jersey air), and watch the field tilt. One half of football made everyone seemingly forget that Denver is missing key pieces, and these are in fact the exact pieces you would want to beat Manning the Younger. They’re also travelling a long way. I might take Giants straight up.

  28. Ravens -7 over Browns (All Play)
    East Carolina +7.5 over Virginia Tech
    Florida Atlantic +13 over South Florida
    Alabama -8 over Texas A&M ***
    Arizona State -4.5 over Wisconsin
    Chargers +9 over Eagles

    *** Manziel & distractions vs Saban & Alabama? I don’t care that Alabama didn’t look particularly sharp in their opener against Va Tech. Now they have two full weeks to prepare for the Aggies and actually have been waiting on this for 10 months since last year’s loss. I’m sure Saban and Co. will have the defense of Bama very well prepared to stop Johnny autograph. Texas A&M’s defense has been bad too surrendering 29.5 pts/game and 450 yards/game against lowly teams. Alabama’s power running game should blow right through these guys on every possession and I don’t expect Saban to take his foot off the gas at any point.

  29. Michigan (-38) vs Akron
    I know Rome wasn’t built in a day, but I’m not seeing anything that would indicate Bowden is turning it around in the Rowdy. It is what it is, and Michigan won’t be shy about hanging half-a-hundred on the Zips, especially considering they hung 41 on the Catholics.

    UCLA (+4) at Nebraska
    So, let me get this straight; if UCLA plays as well against the Blackshirts as Wyoming did, they cover. I understand, it’s a bigger game and the Huskers shouldn’t get caught asleep at the wheel, plus UCLA’s head may not be in this game, but still somehow in the right place. You never know how anyone will react to tragedy, but I think Mora has his team ready to play.

    Penn State (-6) vs Central Florida
    I’m just putting a little more stock into Penn State’s 2-0 than UCF’s. I’m sorry, but Akron and FIU are in the bottom 5 of the FBS, if not the bottom 2, so you get no style points in those games. I’m sure Blake Bortles is a nice enough guy, but the stats stop looking so video-gamish on Saturday. Plus, O’Brien over O’Leary any day of the week.

    Utah (-2.5) vs Oregon State
    Here’s a news flash. Utah is good. And, though they bounced back last week with a win over Hawaii, Oregon State is still the team that lost to Eastern Washington at home. The Beavers offense is outstanding, but Utah contained Chuckie Keeton, so I expect them to not allow themselves to be taken out of their game by Sean Mannion. This one is close, but the number is small enough to take the Utes at home, with the belief they win straight-up.

    Ravens (-7) vs Browns
    I thought about flipping a coin on this dreaded All-Play. I thought about taking the Browns. I know the Ravens are way down, but on Sunday, they’ll be missing Anquan Boldin a lot less than the Browns will be missing Josh Gordon. I don’t care to hear about how they didn’t draft wide receivers and cornerbacks in this draft any more than the next guy, but it remains an issue. I truly believe Baltimore is some level of “not good” this year, but better than the Browns, who won’t be inspired or angered by the recognition of the Super Bowl win. Sad, but true.

    ***Broncos(-5.5) at Giants***
    This is probably the last Manning Bowl. I don’t ignore Eli’s playoff record or championships in the plural, but Peyton is the better quarterback. Most people know that, even if the numbers that people look at in the future won’t necessarily explain that properly. This pick isn’t so much about the Brothers Manning, but a look at the big picture, and that’s where I believe the Broncos are double-digits better than the G-Men here. I will believe in Denver this entire season, until they give me reason not to. The Giants planted the seed of doubt in Week 1.

  30. zarathustra says:

    Browns +7 over Ravens (all-play)
    Putting aside that I am of a different view than most around here about the direction of the franchise–after ONE game–the Browns are the correct side here if you have to play it.  Everybody assumes the ravens will bounce back after the embarrassment in denver and history has shown that john harbaugh is excellent with extra time.  Moreover, flacco should be able to carve up the browns secondary.  Should.  The problem is joe haden will take out torrey smith (almost identical player to mike wallace from last week) leaving….dallas clark?  That’s it.  And it’s not 2008.  Surely he will be better than he was last week.  Add in that michael oher is injured and a new center means the ravens are weak against the strength of this browns team. 
    Yes, the Cleveland o-line is a concern.  And Brandon Weeden.  He is not good, but I think on Sunday he will be able to take enough advantage of a Baltimore d that will struggle defending the middle of the field.  Seven is a pretty big number in the nfl.  I will gladly take the points while everybody jumps at what will surely be some classic cheddar bad action.

    Utah -3.5 over Oregon St

    Colts -3 over Dolphins
    I’m far from sold on this Colts team, but I am sold on andrew luck–who threw for 400 yds against the Dolphins last year.  Back to back road games for the Dolphins.

    Saints -4 over Bucs
    This is so dumb and I will probably regret it, but I have too.  Sure the saints d is ravaged by injuries and even if they weren’t it is an arrogant provocation of the gambling gods to lay points on the road in division this early when we really know next to nothing about either team.  But have you read about the chaos in Tampa?

    Raiders -6 over Jaguars
    I deliberately avoid watching preseason football because it seems to provide mostly useless information that can only cloud your judgment.  I know that everybody had a lot of fun laughing at the Raiders.  I watched them in week one and by no means saw an awful team.  I’m not saying they are good, but they were plenty decent.  I had a coversation with someone after the combine who was infatuated with geno smith and I told that someone the t. pryor will have a better career than geno–who I watched a lot in college.  I’m not sure pryor will ever be anything special, but I would like to place all of my chips in the middle of the table he will be better than geno.  T.P. looked pretty damn good to me week one and I think he will be good again this week at home.  Chad Henne is a big upgrade over gabbert, but he has no weapons on the road here.  Plus, he is facing an ohio st qb.  We all know how that ends.  Chad Henne is a dick, a muther … (damn it. I have that song in my head again.  It will probably stay there for days now.)

    49ers +2.5 over Seahawks***
    I so want to pick the Seahawks here.  That espn article about them from a few weeks ago almost made me faint I was so damn smitten.  I have been waiting years to see meditation become an integral part of sports and now it is happening in Seattle.  I am officially a Seahawks fan.  Unfortunately, there is no place for fandom on blood-soaked mean streets of cheddar bay.  It’s play or get played.  Just like on the The Wire when the kids on the street warn when Omar is coming, so it is on these streets.  But this Omar isn’t a black man with a scar down his face.  No, the cheddar bay Omar is a white man with about a third of a can of Kodiak wintergreen long-cut in his lip.  The nicotine courses through is veins but it has no effect on his calm demeanor.  This man of profound football genius is allied with the niners.  I dare not wager against him. 
    I hate to so blatantly plagarize a felllow cheddar, but he is a wise man and there are worse things in the world than imitating wise men so….
    Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini Mangini.

    • jimkanicki says:

      well you and i are surely on different pages concerning the browns, but i’m not sure that applies to the greater Cheddar community. i mean last week’s browns action was 36 points to one point on the dolphins. and although it’s early, the browns are coming in about 2:1 over the ravens in spite of national sharps leaning ravens.

      what chaos in tampa? (link pls!)

      • zarathustra says:

        My impression is that you represent the majority opinion on the browns after week one so I was speculating on bad action.
        The bucs had a players only meeting prior to week one centered around the players trusting the coaches tabulation of the captains vote–where josh freeman was stripped of the c on his jersey. Supposedly there some questions about Freeman’s leadership (not a good sign) but it devolved into bitching about the coach. Don’t have any one single link. There have been several posts on profootballtalk the last few days. The info is coming mainly from a shaun king–now in the local media, ross tucker and a local reporter

        • chuckycrater says:

          The Tampa sports media barely lifts a finger unless you inconvenience them. And guess who didn’t give them the weekly practice schedule in advance. Therefore, shit storm.

  31. clevta says:

    3. Browns +7 (All play)- For the record haven’t seen anything >6.5 anywhere so that says a lot to me. Breaking that 6.5 barrier to 7 is a big deal and would mean there was lots of smart money on the Ravens, yet I’ve only seen 6.5 at my online book and the others I’ve checked out. Yes we all know the Browns looked like garbage last week but it can’t be forgotten that the front 7 defensively was dominant and will be a staple all season. Baltimore doesn’t have a reliable #2 WR like Hartline to take advantage of Skrine opposite Haden. Jacoby Jones is out and rookie Marlon Brown attempts to fill his shoes. While a pretty impressive physical WR, he obviously lacks the experience to really make Skrine look bad. I’m sure he’ll get his fair share of catches but I think it won’t be as severe as last week. Where Baltimore will surely have the advantage is in the slot w/ Stokley v Owens. Hopefully the Browns front will be able to put enough pressure on Flacco to slow down the 3rd down conversions. Denver hurried Flacco all game and had 4 sacks with no Dumervil or Von Miller. That’s a weak Denver front 4 that harassed Flacco. Also can’t downplay having Kruger telling the Ravens secrets (Rainey too). Here are a few trends that help my Browns cause as well:
    • In Browns/Ravens series, the road team is 7-0 ATS in last 7 matchups
    • Browns last 3 games in Baltimore they have battled & lost by only 7,7 and 6 points
    • Browns are 5-2 ATS in Baltimore in their last 7 meetings there
    • Big public percentages on Baltimore -6.5 yet line has not budged
    • As a fav of 6.5 or more Baltimore is 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 games

    4. Giants +5.5- Way way too many points to give an excellent offense at home, especially after a flukey 6 turnover game where they only lost by 5. Everyone talking about Peyton and Denver offense, yet nobody has recognized that it was the Giants who actually put up the highest yds/play last week in the NFL at 8.1. Seriously, without those David Wilson fumbles the Giants most likely win by 7 or more. Denver’s defense, especially the secondary, is really week and Champ Bailey is expected to be out again or at the very least be hampered. There is no way Denver’s secondary can handle all three of Nicks, Cruz and Randle as well as Brandon Myers. I expect Eli to toss up 350+ and 3 tds minimum in a shootout. The Manning brothers might reach 75 total points here.

    5. Jacksonville +6 (Essay)- Most ridiculous line I’ve seen in an NFL game in a long while. This is such a major overreaction on both sides. So the Raiders who were expected to be one of the worst teams of all time is all of the sudden favorites by 6! Maybe the Colts aren’t that good? Yes Jacksonville looked horrible last week but they actually get an upgrade at QB this week with Henne taking over for Gabbert, who quite possibly is the worst QB I’ve seen. The public is eating up Pryor and is all over the Raiders. Big mistake imo. Jacksonville will gameplan to take away Terrell and make him throw the ball, which any OSU fan like myself knows he can’t do consistently. I expect a heavy dose of MJD on offense. Last year Jacksonville went into Oakland, who actually had a better team than this season, and led most of the way before losing by 3, but still covered the spread. This line is off by 3 points.

    6. Arizona St -4.5: ASU was my favorite preseason sleeper team alongside Baylor. I love ASU’s offense and am not a believer in Wisconsin on the road out west. Last year they looked awful in Corvalis getting beat up by Oregon State.

    Just missed the cut- Dolphins +3. Indy is biggest public play of the week and line is down to 1.5 in many places (reverse line movement). Indy’s o-line got destroyed last year and still had problems last week v weak Oakland pass rush. Wake will have another field day. Expect a bounceback from Lamar Miller. Also like Eagles, over Bama/A&M, Oregon St and BG

  32. jimkanicki says:

    @Ravens -7 Browns. 73% conc; 3-2 experts.
    Josh Gordon’s absence has been underplayed in the postgame analysis of the Browns’ loss last week. He’s greatly missed. Lyndall at WFNY made a point on how Weeden has not established timing/rapport/ESP with any of his receiver. I think that’s right but I would say the closest Weeden has for a go-to target is Gordon. Don’t get me wrong, the weak roster is still the biggest problem for the Browns. Banner may wind up being a genius after all, but this year he’s spent 60% of the salary on the Front7+Haden+Thomas. That leaves 40% to spend on the other eleven positions (and kicker/punter). It’s a team built to lose and lose they will; especially so this weekend. I laugh at how everyone is shocked -SHOCKED- at the lack of depth at guard. HEY! Idiot blogger in NH knew this was a prob in February and shared the wisdom, gratis.
    The missing Josh Gordon and the Ravens’ extra days of prep plus ‘Ravens home opener’ (The Ravens win theirs: 11-2 in home openers since 2000.) add up to a breezy win for the Ravens and solid slapdown of the prevailing thinking of Norv Turner offensive wiseman and Ray Horton attacking front 7 will fix everything. Prepare for angry Cleveland sports radio and a hastening of Browns malaise this year. Fan indifference could well set in before the bye week.

    Stanford -29 @Army. 73%/8-1
    This is a name-your-score game and Stanford HC David Shaw likes to cover: 15-7-1 ATS last two years; 7-1-1 ATS away. I can’t say I didn’t appreciate Trent Steelman while he was at Army, but damn, take him away from Army’s offense and it’s quite pathetic.

    BC +13.5 @USC. 56%/4-2
    BC’s QB Rettig looked great last week vs Wake (30-44/408yds/4TDs) and I like Addazio. USC has no QB and I don’t like Kiffin.

    @Illinois +10 Washington. 53%/9-1
    We knew old friend Tim Beckman from Toledo was head coach in Champagne, but didn’t realize that Bill Cubit ex-of WMU is now Illinois’ OC. Always liked Cubit’s WMU teams. Illinois, if Beckman makes it through the year, is on track to answering the age-old question: what would MACtion look like with B1G athletes?

    NIU -28.5 @Idaho. 69%/7-2
    See GrandRapidsRustlers’ last dozen or so weekly picks re: Idaho. The average Idaho game this year is 41-8. Last year it was 42-16. In 2011, 33-20; 2010, 28-27. The trend of suck won’t be checked with the hire of Paul Petrino, not early in this season anyway. Their scoring offense is 121st in the country; their total defense is 120th. They’re every bit as bad as GRR’s been saying. NIU on the other hand, is pretty darn good. The Huskies had an off week prior to this game so travel shouldn’t be a factor, even though they may rusty at the start… Jordan Lynch. If they’re serious about Lynch for Heisman, this is a stat padder game especially built for that purpose.

    ***@Bengals -7 Steelers. 61% conc; 9-3 experts.
    Damn the Steelers have had some injuries. But losing Maurkice Pouncey from an already young/suspect o-line and then trying to match up against the Bengals interior of Peko-Atkins is a recipe for disaster. The Steelers will counter the Bengals line converted left tackle, 7th round draft pick Kelvin Beachum at center bookended with first year starter David DeCastro and Ramon Foster. We haven’t even gotten to Cincy’s long and athletic DEs: 6-7 Michael Johnson and 6-6 Carlos Dunlap. Nor have we addressed the Bengals secret weapon, Margus Hunt. One wouldn’t think the Steelers could do worse than the three FGs they posted at home vs. the Titans, but it’s possible given how their lines matchup. On the other hand, it’s easy to picture the Bengals will not have three turnovers again since they’re not playing the 2012 leader in give-take differential (Bears). The Hard Knocks players eat up the spotlight now and will be at their best at home on Monday night.

    Other picks: @Rice -6.5 Kansas (64/6-1), UCLA +4 @Nebraska (50%/3-5), NMex +21.5 @Pitt (36%/4-4), @TTU +3 TCU (51%/10-6), Bama -8 @ TAMU (53%/3-5), Vandy +14 @SCAR (31% 6-4), Maryland -7 @UConn (76%/5-1), OleMiss +3 @Texas (42%/2-5), @Bills +3 Panthers, Cowboys +3 @Chiefs, @Seahawks -2.5 Niners.

    • clevelandfrowns says:

      “73% conc; 3-2 experts.” — What do these numbers mean? Thx.

      • jimkanicki says:

        those are notes to self that i couldve/shoulve deleted but the “73% conc” is the covers.com ‘consensus’ on that game. IOW, 73% of their players are betting Ravens. the second number are their ‘experts’ and i admit i don’t know what makes an expert. hoping to have a post up next week on how a couple of cheddar handicappers use (or ignore) such data.

  33. chuckkoz says:

    1) Boise -24 (vs Air Force)
    AP: Browns +7 (at Ravens)

    more to come.

    • chuckkoz says:

      Boise -24 (vs Air Force)
      Giants +5.5 (vs Broncos)
      Bears -6.5 (vs Vikings)
      49ers +2.5 (at Seahawks)
      AP: Browns +7 (at Ravens)
      Essay: Cardinals +2.5 (vs Lions)

      I must have missed the part where the Lions were a good enough team to go on the road and be favorites against a much-improved Cardinals team. And even that Cardinals team last year that sucked (mostly because they were a joke that had nobody to throw to Fitz, but now have a competent QB in Palmer) pounded the shit out of the Lions in Glendale (38-10…by the way NFL, it is pretty unexplainable that 2 non-division opponents play back to back years in the same team…could have been a way to make this one in detroit for logics sake, but whatever). And the Cardinals have won 6 straight home games against the Lions (must have been the Barry Sanders era).

      Nonetheless, everyone seems big on the Lions (not in this esteemed cheddar group, but overall consensus on the internets). Well, count me out. Cardinals are improved and hung close on the road against the solid Rams last week. Now they come home, where they are very good when the games mean anything at all. Meanwhile, Detroit looked good at home against what I think to be a mediocre Vikings team (see Bears pick), but that does not translate to being a road favorite. And Reggie Bush is already dinged up, so maybe he doesnt play that much and this week the Lions have had to deal with more Suh media hype, which cannot be a plus anymore. So I like the Cardinals to win the game by a touchdown.

  34. mattborcas says:


    Alabama (-8) over Texas A&M
    ND (-21) over Purdue

    more to come!

  35. Harbaugh Handshakes says:

    Ill take jets +12 for 1 cheddar point please!

  36. @usfcollin says:

    The rest will come in later… but gimme the Pats +12 as I hold my nose for actually betting on Bill Belichek. I feel so dirty.

    • @usfcollin says:

      And OMG I ALMOST FORGOT Guns Up tonight in Lubbock. I spent a month there over 4 days during the women’s NCAA Tournament this year. Lubbock is the most God awful, miserable place on earth. They deserve a win at home, and the 3 points is some nice push insurance too. Texas Tech +3

  37. HitTheHorns:

    Tulane +8.5
    Troy +8.5
    Jets +12

    Trying to get out of the gates quick this week.

  38. FTCMikeD says:

    I’ll take ArkySt – 7 tonight over Troy.

    Other picks to come later this week.

    • FTCMikeD says:

      Err, rather that is -8.5 for ArkySt over Troy.

    • FTCMikeD says:

      ArkySt – LOSS
      Wash – 10 over @Illinois
      Vandy +14 over @SCAR
      AP: @Ravens -7 over Browns (coin flip goes to SB champs)
      Saints -4 over @Bucs
      *****Cowboys +3 over @Chiefs
      I’m not sure why everyone is all over the Chiefs. They beat JAX – big deal they are horrible. Andy Reid is suddenly a great coach? Mr. Bad Clock Management himself? The Chiefs suddenly have talent? I don’t think Alex Smith is all that great. Dez Bryant will be ready to go on Sunday. This line would indicate that these teams are equal. I think the Cowboys are the more talented team and should win outright. Of course my picks are going horribly this year so far, so I’ll probably be wrong again, haha.

  39. Ohio St -15.5 vs Cal
    Colts -3 vs Mia
    Cowboys +3 KC
    NO -4 vs TB
    NYJ +12 vs NE
    Baltimore -7 vs Browns (essay and All Play) That’s legal, right?
    It took just one Browns game for me to be so sour on them that I’m going to pick against them after picking them week 1. What an idiot move by me. Denver is good, real good and so is that guy Peyton Manning. Baltimore was up at the half of that game. Harbaugh not challenging that 3rd down call led to 24 straight points. I honestly don’t think that the two teams are as far apart as the score may lead you to believe. The team is too talented and the coaching is too good to let the Browns keep this one close.

  40. Early picks: TheKardiacKid
    NYJ +12 @ NE
    @Texas Tech +3 TCU

  41. Chad Mraz says:

    Early start to the week for DQuatts…

    Jets (+12) at. New England
    TTU (+3) vs. TCU

    Back with the rest and the ever so important essay pick!!

    • DQuatts says:

      DQuatts back again with Saturday Night action!!

      #3 Cal +15.5
      #4 Arizona State -4

      Essay and one more coming tomorrow for NFL action.

      • DQuatts says:

        Sorry…. #4 Arizona State -4.5

        • DQuatts says:

          Ok….back for the last action of Week 3!

          #5 Chargers +9
          #6 Browns +7!! Essay

          Yes, we all suffered through a tough loss last week against a Miami team that everyone has written off for the season. Yes, we couldn’t get anything going on offense. Yes, Weeden struggled. Yes, we miss Gordon. But, with those offensive challenges all weighing heavy, there is plenty of potential on both sides of the ball. With Cleveland getting Mingo and Co. back on D, and one week of settling in a little bit, I see The Browns competing with Baltimore for 60minutes. Low scoring and a chance for the brownies late in the 4th!! C’mon Browns!!! Also….Trent’s goes nuts today….FYI.

  42. TTU +3 vs TCU
    Packers -7.5 vs Skins
    Rams +7 at Falcons
    Eagles -9 vs Chargers
    AP: Browns +7 vs Ravens
    Essay: Bowling Green +3 at Indiana

    Bowling Green got their first road win last week, eventually taking control of the game in the 2nd half. I think the Falcons take a lot from that game, and are fired up to get another road win in Bloomington. Bowling Green’s next 3 games are at home against Murray St, Akron, and U Mass. There is no worrying about them looking ahead to next week! They are all business this week.

    Indiana is coming off a deflating loss to Navy where players and fans are having a tough time bouncing back from. I’m concerned that Indiana has a lot of experience on both sides of the ball, and can put up points in hurry. But I think they will come out nervous, the crowd will be nervous, and BG will take control early.

    I think a good MAC team beats a bad BIG TEN team. That’s what we have here. Hopefully, the bowling green contingent will be heard during this game. Perfect time for a weekend trip down to Bloomington to party for the weekend if your a BG student!

  43. Concierge says:

    Gimme the Jets +12 tonight..I’ll get the rest on saturday.

  44. deputyglitters says:

    WKU -10 @ South Alabama – As long as they don’t have a 5 possession stretch like last week.
    Saints -4 @ Bucs
    Pats -12 vs. Jets – I still think the Jets stink. The Bucs were simply worse than I imagined.
    Redskins +7.5 @ Packers
    49ers +2.5 @ Seahawks
    Browns +7 @ Ravens **

    Let’s see… how can I justify this? Deep breath. Go. I was impressed with the Browns rush defense last week for the first time in the last 20 years or more. I acknowledge that it came against a subpar rushing team, but it was a dominant effort nonetheless. AND it happened without Rubin or Mingo. If the Browns can stay somewhat close to last week’s effort and effectiveness, then Ray Rice should be kept mostly at bay, and Baltimore will be forced to throw more than it wants to. Here’s where I hope I’m right. I think Joe Flacco is a hack. I think Flacco is the most overrated quarterback in the NFL. I think Joe Flacco was carried to a Super Bowl victory on the biceps of Anquan Boldin and his superhuman effort in pulling in countless off-target and ill-advised passes during that game in particular. I think it happened all year and into the playoffs and no one seemed to notice. That playoff win over the Broncos was a joke. The Ravens were stupid to let Boldin go. What he did in San Fran Sunday is not a one-off. It’s going to happen all year. Now the Ravens are down to Torrey Smith and who else with Jones out? I say Haden shuts Smith down and our secondary actually makes a few of the plays they left on the field last week. Mingo and Rubin provide a little more juice and we don’t wear down.

    This is all said with my fingers crossed and breath held in hopes of the following happening as well:

    Hopefully Schwartz handles Dumerville better than he did Wake. Dumerville is equally as fast but not as strong as Wake. Maybe they will have better success running to the right.

    Hopefully Weeden dials it in a little better and delivers more accurate throws. I don’t think he shit the bed as bad as a lot of people think he did last week. Watching the afternoon games, it was remarkable how much time some of the other QBs I was watching had to throw.

    Hopefully we can slow down their pass rush with some screen game.

    Hopefully Ngata doesn’t murder Oniel Cousins and then defecate on his dead body. Toes crossed too!

  45. clevta says:

    Lets start the week off tonight with:

    1. Jets +12- Geno on the road is scary but I think w/ all the NE weapons gone (Gronk, Vereen, Amendola), both teams will play ball control offense that will lead to a low scoring game, which leads to a much better shot that the Jets can cover a big 12 pt spread. Both NE and the Jets allowed their opponents a first down/play <25% which ranks #2 and #3 in week 1. Obviously both teams know each other well but the difference is that NE has never seen Geno in person so there is a slight edge to Rex here. I took NE under 11.5 Ws in the preseason and also took the Bills +11 last week so I will be going against NE here for a while until the market adjusts. There is absolutely nobody to stretch the field for Brady so the field will shrink a ton tonight. Expect lots of Ridley although the Jets only allowed Doug Martin 2.6 ypc last week so they should be ready. A 23-16 type final is what I am expecting and will gladly take the 12 here as long as Geno doesnt toss 3-4 ints. crossing fingers here.

    2. UCF +6- After seeing PSU struggle v Cuse two weeks ago then watching Cuse get waxed at NW the following week, I imagine this is going to be a long year for PSU. Bortles and Storm Johnson should be able to put up some points on PSU and that defense can easily slow down the PSU offense. This also gives me an excuse to mention Bortles smoking hot girlfriend. Please Google Lindsey Duke. You are welcome for both the google search and the +6.

  46. Good thing I hit the essay pick or I’d have been crushed last week. Two perfect examples of why I hate picking NFL games ATS. Both my picks won but didn’t cover. Sick of this.

    Here are this week’s picks.

    Eagles -9 vs. Chargers
    Don’t you have to take this one? That crazy offense, with San Diego reeling and traveling cross-country for a 1:00pm kickoff after playing the late game on Monday, early in the year before a lot of game film gets out and people catch up to what Chip Kelly is doing? This could be a beatdown.

    All Play: Ravens -7 vs. Browns
    I don’t have the obvious emotional reaction to this game that many of you do, and that makes it easy to go with the clearly better team. Brandon Weeden is no Peyton Manning.

    Auburn -6.5 vs. Mississippi State
    Is Mississippi State the most overrated team in the SEC? (Well, no, that’s probably Florida. Anyway.) Funny thing about their loss to Oklahoma State in Houston — they got destroyed on the ground by the Cowboys to the tune of 286 yards and 7.2 yards per carry. Meanwhile Auburn ran for over 300 last week against an Arkansas State team that probably knew what was coming since their coach last year was standing on Auburn’s sideline. I feel like if you’re backing the Bulldogs here, you have to pick them to win outright, and that isn’t going to happen.

    Rice -6.5 vs. Kansas
    “You lost to food!”

    Kentucky +14.5 vs. Louisville
    14.5 is just too many points to lay on the road in a blood-feud rivalry like this. There’s too much potential for the Cardinals to either come out a little flat and have to struggle, or for them to let off the gas and allow the frisky Wildcats to cover.

    ESSAY: Texas Tech +3 vs. TCU
    One of the very few things I like about living in Texas is Big XII football, and this should be a fun game on a Thursday night. The Frogs’ defense has just not been good in the first two games. LSU rolled up 450+ yards on them (5.6 yards per play) and dominated time of possession, while even Southeast Louisiana did well on the ground. I don’t know if Devonte Fields alone changes all that. Texas Tech is unlikely to attack TCU running the ball, but this freshman QB of theirs, Blake Redfield, is legit. I watched him shred SMU for 400 yards and 4 TDs in his first game. And yeah, it’s SMU and that offense schemes up a lot of yards, but he also made some big-time throws in the second half as they were pulling away. TCU was lucky to get last year’s game into overtime after the Red Raiders blew a 10-point lead with five minutes left. And that was when Tech had Tommy Tuberville wrapped around them like a lead anchor.

    Anyway, that’s the long version. The short version is this: Wacky-ass shit goes down on the Llano Estacado. GITCHA GUNS UP.

  47. Squeekycleen says:

    Essay pick: Arizona Cardinals +2.5: Well, what do you know, the public loves the all offense Detroit Lions again this year. They just can’t resist this team. Never mind they chuck it too much, make dumb penalties, turn it over, and suck on road, they have Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and now Reggie Bush!!! On the flip side, the Cardinals are chronically disrespected. They looked massively upgraded last week in a tight on at St. Louis, who is an excellent football team. Even though I’m no big Carson Palmer fan, he can only be seen as a massive upgrade and with the weapons that are around him, he should have success. I will grab the home dog from the best division in the NFL.

    Miami +3: Line is funny.
    Tampa Bay +4: Not a big fan of this squad, but love to buck N.O. on road.
    Arizona St. -4.5: Cheese U in a tough spot in late night road game against foe looking to surge onto national scene.
    TCU -3: Ttech looked good on national TV in opener, huge step up in class here for walkon frosh QB.
    All play: Cleveland +7: They can’t be as bad as last week, can they? Wait, of course they can!

  48. FlyHighCharlieFrye says:

    All play: Browns +7
    Chargers +9 at Philly
    Tampa Bay Bucs +4 vs. Saints
    New Mexico +21.5 at Pitt
    Bowling Green +3 at Indiana

    Central Florida +6 at Penn State

    Not sure what I’m missing here, though I’m riding it because I think I understand. Penn State is no frills, no fancy, all defense and coaching and straightahead football. And so are the Fighting George O’Learys, who come in searching for respect but not in a MAC team kind of way. This is a UCF program that has players, has been in this type of environment many times before and is good enough to win this game. Penn State is Penn State but is also Penn State, if that makes any sense, and has a freshman QB and has beaten Syracuse and Eastern Michigan. Big step up in class here for both teams and the fact this line is under a touchdown tells me that I’m not the only one who thinks this is a field goal game, either way, into the final minute.

  49. acto says:

    All Play -Rotten Ravens -7 over Browns
    Jets +12 over Pats
    Stanford -29 over Army
    BGSU +3 over Indiana
    UTEP -6.5 over New Mex State
    ****Ole Miss, whatever the spread may be, over Texas****
    Picking against my alma mater again. I have seen the face of turmoil and its name is Texas. I just read that David Ash is questionable for the Ole Miss game, in all actuality he is questionable for every game and the sad part is, he is actually a fairly good QB. He is however, surrounded by clueless coaches and he was heavily pressured last week even when BYU was rushing three against six. Things get even worse on the important side of the ball. Manny Diaz will not have his defense prepared for this game, well, mostly because he just got his pink slip. With both of these teams looking terrible on the important side of the ball I am expecting Ole Miss-in-baulk to win 398 to 360, that should cover any spread that shall arise. If Chips II plays instead of David Ash then make it 420 to 10. Texas cannot stop the run and while Ole Miss is not exactly the greatest running team in college football, if their O-line makes it off the bus and they find at least one running back who knows which end zone to run towards, Texas will look terrible again this week.

  50. Week 3 Picks

    Time to bounce back this week and sometimes you look at the lines and games just jump out at you so no point in waiting to post.

    All Play – Truly diabolical. The Ravens should not get 7 vs anyone (maybe Jax) AND the Browns have Billy Cundiff AND anyone who knows anything about history should know what the Browns do to defending Super Bowl Champs. Let’s all watch talk radio completely do a 180 this week.

    Browns (+7) over Ravens

    NIU (-28.5) over Idaho – Wyoming finally steamrolled Idaho when they stopped being cute. NIU does not try cute. Jordan Lynch may break some records on Saturday.

    Notre Dame (-21) over Purdue – At least it pays well right Mr. Hazell?

    Patriots (-12) over Jets – Edelman once called me a hater on Twitter. Don’t know what that has to do with this game but I’ll throw it out there.

    Chargers (+9) over Eagles – Settle down America.

    Essay Pick

    Is this is a misprint? How in the world are the Colts only a 3 point favorite at home vs Miami. I know you should take week 1 results with a grain of salt but I saw the Browns close on Sunday some places as much as a 2.5 point favorite. After everything we saw in week 1 the Colts only get 3? Miami still has no running game. Tannehill is still a bum (it’s a personal thing with me I can’t stand him) Let us also enjoy the beauty of Andrew Luck on Sunday. Watch what an all pro QB does to the blitz on Sunday. Also developing story line from my last essay I though that Mike Wallace would simply take the cash and accept the fact that his line sucks so bad that the deep ball won’t be a factor. I was wrong. Turns out he has even more diva in him than I thought…I may hate the Steelers but they always seem to let certain guys go…anyway…

    Colts (-3) over Dolphins

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