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Home » Cheddar Bay Archive » Cheddar Bay 2013 » Cheddar Bay open thread #2; Irish at Michigan.

Cheddar Bay open thread #2; Irish at Michigan.

Welcome to Week 2 of Cheddar Bay.1942_notre-dame_vs_michigan  This week’s lines are linked here.

Our all-play this week is:

Notre Dame +4.5 at Michigan.
8pm Saturday, Ann Arbor, ESPN.

The Browns’ opener was considered for the all-play but after consultation with the Chairman Emeritus, we agreed Mich/ND is the better game and also that we were somewhat blasé going into the Browns season.

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Attention Ipad users
It’s been pointed out to me that the standings sidebar widget is unseen from mobile endpoint devices.  So here are the links to the Cheddar Bay 2013 trackers for your bookmarking pleasure:

Your commissioner thanks you in advance for double-checking his data entry.  Mistakes have happened and will again; please make sure I get your pick entered correctly.

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Game submittals
You may have noticed that some players stagger their submittals.  This is fine just so long as the picks are in an hour before kickoff (and frankly we’ve been known to cut some slack on the one hour rule but don’t push it).  You can even change your picks after they’re submitted although this is frowned upon and invariably leads to your original pick winning and your new pick losing.

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Reminder:  at least one pro and one college pick every week.

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Essays.
I cut slack to three players last weekend, a first week courtesy.  Normal essay rules are in place now and moving forward as are the sanctions for non-compliance.

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56 players so far.
We’ve managed to get more players year-over-year again.  We stand at 56 which is a good number.  Always room for more.  If you’re interested in joining it’s pretty much shoot an email to kanick_blog@yahoo.com and we go from there.

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Cheddar players quoted by Grantland.
Holly Anderson obviously hits our twitter subscription list so you probably should too.  Go here to find it.

Screen Shot 2013-09-04 at 6.51.35 AMScreen Shot 2013-09-04 at 6.52.11 AM

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Way to go Borcas.
First LOBSTERFEST was seen last week, congrats Matt.  And while we generally don’t do recaps/highlights of the week before because everyone of us has a bad beat that is worthy of discussion, so your pain is stipulated… we feel both empathy and hilarious amusement at the McNeese State thing for our new USF friends.

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Drop picks in the comments.
And I’ll be maintaining a word cloud right here if you’re interested in the trending picks.  Good luck this week.

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120 Comments

  1. cleinmpls says:

    Eagles +4.5

  2. […] yet in yesterday’s #CheddarBay work, our generally savvy pickers threw down a collective 39 points on the Browns versus one point on […]

  3. bupalos says:

    Weeden is bad, but worse than being bad, he’s just a mismatch for where the NFL is going. You can take half a potential NFL playbook and tear it up and throw it away when he, or someone like him, is your guy. 0 mobility. There is no sense pursuing this any longer. He’s not the best QB on this roster.

    Also I’d trade Richardson for about half of the starting RB’s in the league, which means he’s worth about an early 3rd rounder.

    Glad they saved the money on Mack. They need to restructure this line, and there are more important places to spend it than center.

    • jimkanicki says:

      I find I’m unable to write anything that doesn’t have a ‘trolling’ feel to today it so Ima push back from the keyboard for today.

    • acto says:

      You know I love you Bupa, but you are having a bad week. It must be the earthquakes.
      Center is a very important cog in the team machine.
      Pittslime has one of the best in the league, but watch what happens with him out.
      I do not care about the stupid term “franchise quarterback”, I would rather have a franchise center.
      I do however appreciate your evaluation of TRich.
      NEVER pick a running back in the first three rounds of the draft!!

  4. dwhalen says:

    Titans +7 at Steelers
    Vikings +5.5 at Lions
    Cardinals +4.5 at Rams
    $$$$ Packers +5 at Niners $$$

    Bro, have you seen randall cobb in action? Have you witnessed Eddie Lacy in person trample Manti Te’o time after time en route to a beatdown in Miami, FL? Have you seen Aaron Rodgers’ restaurant partnership with Ryan Braun that’s too legit to quit? (Actually, he did just quit it.) Did you know that Frank Gore is so old that he actually played Littlefoot in The Land Before Time? Let’s just call this quite the large spread, based on the boner that Colin Kaepernick gave everyone a year ago, after replacing underrated game-manager Alex Smith. Dude, I know you’re so “west coast” now that the Niners are your favorite team ever, but ain’t no defense in this league that can bring Aaron Rodgers down to human level. That said, I’ll take the points.

    sorry for being late.

  5. oxr says:

    From yesterday: ND (loss!) and Oregon (win!). Now for the main event:

    Bengals +3 over Bears
    Colts -10 over Raiders

    Essay: Bucs -4 over Jets:

    Week 1 is a magical time. I can’t recall a year in which there weren’t at least a couple of games that went utterly and completely sideways by the end of the first quarter, leaving me staring slack-jawed at a double-digit road favorite. (At least the Colts are a double-digit *home* favorite.) Four points looks like a valuable “who the hell knows” line, presumably based on the fact that people are wary of betting on Tampa Bay. Nobody knows how bad the bad teams are going to be, but at least it seems fair to say the Jets are going to be subject to some growing pains. These things never go the way they look on paper, but on paper this is as clear a strength/weakness matchup as you’re likely to see: one team that has made huge investments in its secondary versus another that has a near-unprecedented level of quarterback instability. Never mind pulling the upset – losing by only a FG would be a huge moral victory for the Jets, and would probably require a career-ending meltdown from Josh Freeman to boot. But even if Bad Freeman shows up, the Bucs at least have other things they can do on offense; I’m not sure what the Jets have in the cupboard apart from, like, Stephen Hill. Week 1 road favorites, I wish I could quit you.

    (I’m going to pick one of the Monday games but I can’t decide which, and I’m already a bit inside an hour before kickoff, so I’d probably better just post this.)

    • oxr says:

      Wow, that kind of sucked. Here’s where I’m at:

      ND (loss), Oregon (win), Colts (loss), Bucs (loss-), Bengals (push).

      And to finish, gimme the Eagles +4.5 over the Redskins, because after that Bucs-Jets game I just don’t know anymore.

  6. bupalos says:

    Let me take this opportunity to slow-clap you all, and admit I almost fell for your little game here. You are as devious a cheddar field as ever this poor honest Bupalos has seen, but the bottom line is, it didn’t work. Oh and it was clever indeed; “Let’s pile up all the bad action on the Browns we can” you said. “Let’s craft meek little statements of support for the defensive line and coaching,” you schemed, “and maybe the famed Bupalos, He, that Scourge of Bad Consciences, will leave us alone, pick some other team, destroy his own karma, and give us all a chance to win our precious green “money.”” No, no, no, and NO.

    Imagine the sound of all the basketball buzzers on earth sounding at once. Above, Wall Street execs plummet from their shattering glass towers; below, the shockwave spontaneously fractures the shale layer and drives all hydrocarbons to hell; Here on the Bay, one man alone withstands it’s skull-crushing force, crunching the clams and mussels of deceit beneath his feet as he strides forth to meet his glorious destiny.

    CLEVELAND BROWNS. CLEVELAND BROWNS FOR ALL THE CHEDDAR. CLEVELAND BROWNS FOR ALL THE HOPE, THE JOY, THE PRIDE. CLEVELAND BROWNS FOR ALL!!!!!

    Also, Bills +11, Not Steelers, +7.

  7. jimkanicki says:

    posted for Art Brosef:

    no essay week.
    Buffalo
    Carolina
    St Louis
    Rams
    Cincy***

  8. jimkanicki says:

    posted for TrashyCamaro:

    @jets -4 bucs
    @Redskins -4.5 Eagles

    ESSAY
    @colts -10 raiders

    I do have to take a moment and disagree with our progenitor here – the Colts are certainly up for a case of regression. Does this mean they will return to 2-14 with Andrew Luck? Of course not. But I think an 8-8 record is a fair assessment of the situation. The Colts look great at QB, have a decent pair of wideouts (I’m not ready to Heyward-Bey “good”), and their tight ends look to be solid. However, Bradshaw/Ballard/Brown running back carousel has plenty of questions, as does an offensive line that is middle of the pack, and leaning on a Lions castoff at RT to go with a couple rookies. And we have not even started on the defense yet, which finished 31st overall, with a sterlling 32nd place finish against the run. They have decided to switch over to the 3-4 and are still transitioning, adding the immortal Erik Walden and rookie 1st round pick DE Bjoern Werner, who now gets to learn how to play OLB. We’ll see how that goes.

    A franchise QB can take you places though, which is why I see 8-8 as a good place to land. And a good place to get that first win is against the Terrelle Pryor era Raiders.

  9. cleinmpls says:

    Bucs -4
    Chiefs -4

  10. Bobby_Slick says:

    Here’s to our lovable Cleveland Browns and here’s to week 2…

    Broncos (Loss)
    Michigan (Win)
    Tennessee Volunteers (Win)

    Buccaneers -4
    Bengals +3
    Browns -1 ****

    Words cannot express how much I hate Pat Shurmur. I’d have a better chance being a successful (name a profession) than be has as a successful football coach. I still see the Browns as an under .500 football team (hoping for 8-8) but they get the opener. Everyone is healthy and I think Norv uses Bess and Benjamin out of the slot to make up for the loss of Gordon. Trich gets plenty of carries and finds the end zone a couple times…last, I think this Browns D is going to be pretty sneaky. Solid line and I’m praying with Hortons attacking D we find a way to get to the quarterback. The optimist in me says this isn’t close, and come on, how fun is it putting the browns as your essay for the first nfl week of the year. Go Browns!

  11. PETER M says:

    Michigan
    Browns over Fins
    New England -9.5 over Buffalo
    Indy -10 over OAK
    Houston-4 over SD
    TB -4 over Jets
    the Bucs will be able to score. The Jets cant score in a whore house. Betting against a rookie QB in his first start just seems like an easy pick. He doesn’t have help either. The Bucs, on offense, are almost at full strength. Nicks is out with MRSA, but Martin will run well without him, and unlike in the preseason, the offense will look good.
    Happy Football Season!

  12. oxr says:

    oxr:

    AP: Irish +4.5 over Michigan (another coin flip; glad the All Plays don’t count for an extra half point this year)
    Oregon -24 over Virginia (obligatory stupid-favorite Duck pick to start the year off; apparently can’t help myself)

    NFL picks tomorrow.

  13. cheddarclay says:

    Kansas St (-10.5) / ULL
    Tulsa (-9.5) / Coloraado St
    Arizona (-11) / UNLV
    ND (+4.5) / Michigan

    Arkansas St (+13) / Auburn

    I always look for early season SUN BELT disrespect and believe I have found one. Ark St played a near flawless game last week destroying Pine Bluff 62-11. This team is dying to knock off an SEC school and may never have a better opportunity. They have won 10 games the past 2 seasons and beat Kent in a classic GoDaddy.com Bowl game last year. Auburn, for a lack of a better term, sucks. Hung on for dear life at home last week vs an equally shitty Washington St team that had travelled across country. Ark St is not gimmicky like some good small conference teams, they have a nice run/pass balance and should be able to run a little tonight, which at very least should keep them in the game (had 3 100yd rushers last week).

  14. cltil says:

    CleveLandThatILove

    In the books << @Broncos (- didn't matter) over Ravens. Kind of bummed I didn't finish the essay I had started on this one Wed night, but real life intervened, so…
    ~AP~ ND +4.5 @Mich
    Arizona -11 over @UNLV
    @Bills +11 over Pats – Brady saw Welker with Peyton like we all did, and I'll go with Biki anytime
    Titans +7 over @Steelers
    **@Skins -4.5 over Eagles

    My appreciation of Robert Griffin III, on and off the field, knows no bounds. (Anybody that can make family, morality and hard work cool again is aces in my book.) Someday I may get over him not wearing orange and brown, but it won't be anytime soon. Whatever Holmgren did or didn't do for Cleveland, that missed opportunity is all I will ever remember about his time here (once that daiquiri golf cart image finally fades).

    So, Chip Kelly is going to run as many offensive plays as he can possibly squeeze into 60 minutes. (trying to picture Shurmur keeping up, and can't). Washington's D-coordinator must have watched as much Oregon film as he could get his hands on to prep his unit for what may come. He's got the much-seasoned London Fletcher out there to co-manage things on the field if he can't get the play call in fast enough. It will be interesting to see if what Kelly's got cooking can stand up to the NFL test. RG III has already aced that test, and his teammates believe. He had 6 TD passes against Philly last season, and the Eagles' secondary still is not what you'd call a strength with 3 new starters. The Skins are opening at home, and their fans were pretty much reborn last year. Also FWIW, Washington was something like 11-6 ATS in 2012, while the Eagles covered just 3 times.

  15. DQuatts says:

    DQuatts Week 2 Cheddar (so far…):

    Virginia (+24)

    Michigan (-4.5)

    Georgia (-3)

    Will post my Essay pick and other (3) picks for the week ASAP. They will be NFL games.

    • DQuatts says:

      DQuatts, con’t:

      Oakland (+10.5)
      Tennessee (+7)
      *Browns (-1)

      Essay: It’s football season!!! Tough to find more loyal fans that the ones in the Muni-lot this morning! Browns get a win in the opener. I like the idea of Cleveland being able to control the clock against a young defense. This can be a game that the browns can dictate the way it’s played. I understand Miami has some excitement on offense and brings in some momentum from finishing last season on a good note, but Cleveland has energy and momentum as well. The tides have started to turn in Cleveland. Behind a performance of 130 yds and 2TDs from Mr. Richardson, the browns cruise the a 27-17 victory to get this season started on the right foot! Happy Sunday all….go Browns!

  16. jmacdaddio says:

    jmacdaddio(@jmacdaddio)

    Michigan (-4.5) over Notre Dame
    Texas (-7.5) over BYU
    Indiana (-12.5) over Navy
    Tampa Bay (-4) over NY Jets
    New England (-11) over Buffalo
    Essay: Dallas (-3.5) over NY Giants

    I’m not a Cowboys fan. Actually, I can’t stand them. But there’s points and money at stake so I’m picking them over my NY Giants. The fantasy football buzz this year is generally pro-Dallas (Dez Bryant is about to break through to another level, Romo is consistent as ever, etc) while the Giants did an off-season roster purge, meaning there will be a lot of playbook cramming on the team bus. While anything can happen in NFL week 1, I don’t see the Giants staying close in a national TV game on the road. NY media seems to be fixated on the mess that’s the Jets, which usually means the Giants are quietly building a winner, but time the Camp Rex smokescreen is hiding the fact that the Giants aren’t much better.

  17. Florida (-3.5) at Miami
    Cincinnati (-9.5) at Illinois
    UTSA (+30) vs Oklahoma State
    Michigan (-4.5) vs Notre Dame
    Washington State (+16) at USC

    NFL essay to come…

    • ***Texans (-6) at CHARGERS***

      It’s really difficult to interpret what’s going to happen with a team that’s “on the cusp” year over year, but I don’t think Houston has quite reached that point just yet. Still, they’re close, but they’re running short on excuses; happy to be here only lasts for so long. In their case, I think continual growth is more likely than a complete meltdown. Speaking of meltdowns, haven’t the Chargers been in that mode since they canned Marty? I don’t love the quarterback play on either side, but I like the Texans depth at the skill positions, as well as their obvious chemistry on the other side if the ball.

      I see Houston pulling a Denver here, not in the passing game, but just with a thorough team game.

  18. here we go yay

    notre dame +4.5
    florida -3.5
    cincy -10
    duke -6.5
    ohio -6
    wku +14

    this line is suspiciously high. western kentucky is much more further along in the process than tennessee is under butch jones and dooley didn’t do jones any favors with that roster. bobby petrino is coaching with the motivation that drives him most — to make more money and get another job, and the only way he can do that is by winning a bunch of games at wku, which has a surprisingly good roster and already beat one down sec team this year. wku might not win, but 14 points is just too many, this thing will be a score or less.

  19. jimkanicki says:

    For CapGG via twitter: “cheddar me Cinci & Florida. Post coming soon. Let me know of it’s too late to lock this in.”

    • jimkanicki says:

      For CapGG: Cancel Florida.

    • CapitalGG says:

      Week 2:
      It’s been a pretty awful week. Fortunately I still have my health and #CheddarBay.

      All-play: Michigan -4.5 v. Notre Dame: If you’re not sure the road dog wins out right, give the points with the home team (why didn’t I give myself this advise last week?).

      Cincinnati -10 @ Illinois: The Illini are stinky. <-That analysis is why I'm paid the big bucks!
      Toledo +17 @ Missouri: Gary Pinkel is an overrated coach. UT covered 18 against a better team in a more difficult venue last week.
      Ohio -6 v. North Texas: Line seems an overreaction to OU getting housed by a very good L’ville team.
      Panthers +4.5 v. Seahawks: Weird stuff happens in week 1. Panthers are underrated (unluckiest team in league last year). Seattle to Charlotte is a long way and 3 time zones.

      Didn’t I just watch UNLV get blown out in that terribly difficult venue called TCF Bank Stadium in downtown Minneapolis? Yep, that happened. So they get to return home and have Rich Rod’s Wildcats come to town.

      Arizona should be very competitive in the Pac-12 South. They won 35-0 against N. Arizona last week, N. Arizona has usually been competitive in these early season games. The Lumberjacks had 40 minutes TOP last week and ZERO points. That’s more defense than you typically see from a Rich Rod team, so you figure the offense will catch up soon.

      It seems that on the surface this line should be in the 3 touchdown range. Instead it’s Arizona -11. Cheddar me some of that please!

      Other plays:
      CFB
      Ball St. -9 v. Army
      Florida -3.5 v. Miami
      Georgia +3 v. South Carolina
      W. Kentucky +14 @ Tennessee
      Houston +3.5 @ Temple
      Miami(OH) +17 @ Kentucky
      Indiana -12.5 v. Navy
      Washington St. +16.5 @ USC

      NFL
      Bengals +3 @ Bears
      Titans +7 @ Steelers
      Vikings +5.5 @ Lions

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